The results are in from the third-quarter fundraising derby in the race to replace Ed Markey in the House, and they show that Peter Koutoujian raised over $200,000 more than his nearest competitor (Katherine Clark) over the last three months, with the other three candidates further back. The amounts raised last quarter fall in the same order as current cash on hand. Here are the numbers:
|$ raised 7/1-9/30||Cash on hand|
Also worth noting is the fact that only one candidate is self-funding to any significant extent: Katherine Clark lent her committee $250,000 sometime during the past quarter, so well over half of her cash on hand comes from her own pocket (note, however, that the fundraising numbers listed above don’t include loans).
The linked reports include expenditure numbers too, so one can get a sense of the “burn rate” for each candidate. Very briefly, it appears that all the candidates are spending money roughly as fast as it comes in (and, for Clark, that includes the loan) – except for Koutoujian, who spent only $211,000 last quarter while taking in nearly three times that amount.
I find these numbers to be fascinating. According to the fundraising and cash-on-hand numbers, the race should be Koutoujian’s to lose. And that may well be the case, though neither the available poll numbers nor the conversation at BMG seem to back that up. But special elections are notoriously difficult to predict. I think it’s fair to anticipate a low turnout on October 15, so whichever candidate can muster the best turnout operation on that day will win. If Koutoujian is able to deploy his substantial resources to that end, he could well pull it off.