My friends, the Democratic State Convention is on Saturday, so it is time for our beloved BMG pundits to predict the results of the convention. Here’s what you need to do:
Predict the percentage of first round votes for the candidates for the four major offices that will be contested on Saturday. [NB: to make the ballot, a candidate must receive at least 15% of the delegates voting on the first ballot. -ed.] If no candidate achieves 50% on the first ballot, the top two will go to the second round. Name the second round candidates and predict the percentage of their votes.
Yes, it’s difficult. However, BMG has the smartest political observers and operatives in our beloved Commonwealth. Bragging rights for the best guess.
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone ___%
Berwick ___%
Coakley ___%
Grossman ___%
Kayyem ___%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa ___%
Cheung ___%
Kerrigan ___%
Lake ___%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey ___%
Tolman ___%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy ___%
Finegold ___%
Goldberg ___%
Second ballot – top two finishers from first ballot (unless a candidate gets 50% on the first round
Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 _____________ ___%
Candidate 2 _____________ ___%
Lieutenant Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 _____________ ___%
Candidate 2 _____________ ___%
Treasurer (second ballot)
Candidate 1 _____________ ___%
Candidate 2 _____________ ___%
Since we do not yet have a Massachusetts casino, may we not shop these Patriot Squares in Nobscot, Doyle’s, Owen O’ Leary’s and Ruby Tuesday?
I tried to shop my Repeal the Casinos signature sheets in and out a cafe with No Soliciting, but somebody beat me to it.
I don’t want a Massachusetts Casino. Donald Trump would surely come to host his beauty pageant in it.
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone _0.9__%
Berwick __27_%
Coakley __25_%
Grossman _26__%
Kayyem _21.1__%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa _10__%
Cheung _17.76__%
Kerrigan _10__%
Lake _62.24__%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey _51__%
Tolman _49__% (but includes MY vote)
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy _33__%
Finegold _32__%
Goldberg _35__%
Second ballot – top two finishers from first ballot (unless a candidate gets 50% on the first round
Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 ___Berwick__________ _51__%
Candidate 2 ___sorbetero__________ _49__%
Lieutenant Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 ____Mike Lake_________ _80__%
Candidate 2 _____Councilor Cheung________ _20__%
Treasurer (second ballot)
Candidate 1 _____Goldberg________ _51__%
Candidate 2 _____Rep. Conroy________ _49__%
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone 3%
Berwick 27%
Coakley 20%
Grossman 40%
Kayyem 10%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa 30%
Cheung 12%
Kerrigan 23%
Lake 35%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey 55%
Tolman 45%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy 40%
Finegold 28%
Goldberg 32%
Second ballot – top two finishers from first ballot (unless a candidate gets 50% on the first round
Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Grossman 65%
Candidate 2 Berwick 35%
Lieutenant Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Lake 60%
Candidate 2 Arena-DeRosa 40%
Treasurer (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Conroy 58%
Candidate 2 Goldberg 42%
Gov:
Grossman: 38% (60% on second)
Coakley: 22% (40% on second)
Berwick: 19%
Kayyem: 15%
Avellone: 6%
LT Gov:
Lake: 33% (55% second)
Kerrigan: 30% (45% on second)
Cheung: 24%
Arena-DeRosa: 12%
AG:
Tolman: 60%
Healey: 40%
Treasurer:
Goldberg: 45% (55% on second)
Finegold: 30% (45% on second)
Conroy: 25%
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone 7%
Berwick 23%
Coakley 20%
Grossman 36%
Kayyem 14%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa 12%
Cheung 18%
Kerrigan 34%
Lake 36%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey 40%
Tolman 60%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy 28%
Finegold 35%
Goldberg 37%
Second ballot – top two finishers from first ballot (unless a candidate gets 50% on the first round
Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Grossman 64%
Candidate 2 Berwick 36%
Lieutenant Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Lake 62%
Candidate 2 Kerrigan 38%
Treasurer (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Feingold 44%
Candidate 2 Goldberg 64%
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone 1%
Berwick 20%
Coakley 32%
Grossman 37%
Kayyem 10%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa 30%
Cheung 7%
Kerrigan 17%
Lake 46%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey 46%
Tolman 54%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy 17%
Finegold 55%
Goldberg 28%
Second ballot – top two finishers from first ballot (unless a candidate gets 50% on the first round
Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Grossman 55%
Candidate 2 Coakley 45%
Lieutenant Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Arena-Derosa 45%
Candidate 2 Lake 55%
Grossman 34
Coakley 28
Berwick 17
Kayyem 16
Berwick 5
Tolman 60
Healey 40
jimc – can we assume your second Berwick should be Avellone?
Avellone 5%
Grossman 40
Coakley 25
Berwick 20
Kayyem 10
Avellone 5
Arena- DeRosa 25
Kerrigan 40
Lake 25
Chung 10
Goldberg 38
Feingold 22
Conroy 40
Tolman 75
Healey 25
First Ballot: Second Ballot
Grossman 44 56
Coakley 26 44
Berwick 16
Kayem 12
Avelone 2
Lt. GOVERNOR
Lake 37 47
Kerrigan 39 53
Cheung 13
Arena De-Rosa 11
Att. GENERAL
Tolman 57
Healy 43
Treasurer
Goldberg 42 59
Feingold 31 41
Conroy 27
First Ballot
Grossman 40
Coakley 25
Kayyem 16
Berwick 16
Avallone 3
Governor:
Avellone 5%
Berwick 30%
Coakley 22%
Grossman 38%
Kayem 5%
Lt Governor
Kerrigan 42%
Lake 30%
Arena Rosa 18%
Cheung 10%
Att General
Healy 54%
Tollman 46%
Treasurer
Feingold 45%
Conroy 30%
Goldberg 25% Bad enough trying to make a first ballot prediction. Will leave that up to fate.
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone 6 %
Berwick 27 %
Coakley 22 %
Grossman 36 %
Kayyem 9 %
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa 23 %
Cheung 18 %
Kerrigan 16 %
Lake 43 %
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey 52 %
Tolman 48 %
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy 23 %
Finegold 33 %
Goldberg 44 %
Second ballot – top two finishers from first ballot (unless a candidate gets 50% on the first round
Governor (second ballot)
Can one candidate decline a 2nd ballot? If so, that would be my prediction in this scenario
Candidate 1 Berwick 52 %
Candidate 2 Grossman 48 %
Lieutenant Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Arena-DeRosa 41 %
Candidate 2 Lake 59 %
Treasurer (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Finegold 33 %
Candidate 2 Goldberg 67 %
Yes, there are indeed scenarios where the second ballot doesn’t happen and no candidate enters the primary the the party endorsement. In fact, many think this a probable outcome: Grossman, Berwick, and Coakley in the primary, no party endorsement in the primary.
…Grossman will push for a second ballot. Getting the endorsement seems to be a key part of his strategy.
Depends on 1) how close the first ballot is and 2) how late in the evening it is when the results are compiled.
…we should know almost right away the order of finish and who made the threshold unless it’s very close. We can be doing second ballots my mid-afternoon and could still adjourn by suppertime.
I appreciate your optimism.
This is the first year we’re using electronic reporting. Expect Murphy’s Law to be in full effect.
My understanding is that the thing that made the balloting take so long in previous years was not necessarily tallying the vote, but was the delegate challenges. Electronic reporting is not going to speed those up.
I think a combination of electronic reporting and the unified ballot will in fact go a long way. I do not anticipate another 2002.
Probably get at least those 3 correct….
Governor
Avellone 4%
Berwick 26%
Coakley 26%
Grossman 35%
Kayyem 9%
Lt. Governor
Arena-DeRosa 14%
Cheung 17%
Kerrigan 32%
Lake 37%
Attorney General
Healey 53%
Tolman 47%
Treasurer
Conroy 29%
Finegold 35%
Goldberg 36%
Governor (2nd Ballot)
Coakley 44%
Grossman 56%
Lt. Governor (2nd Ballot)
Kerrigan 46%
Lake 54%
Treasurer (2nd Ballot)
Finegold 48%
Goldberg 52%
Grossman 44
Coakley 22
Berwick 22
Kayyem 7
Avellone 5
Lt. Gov
Lake 36
Arena De-Rosa 22
Chung 12
Kerrigan 30
Goldberg 48
Finegold 38
Conroy 24
AG
Healey 20
Tolman 80
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone 3%
Berwick 22%
Coakley 29 %
Grossman 39%
Kayyem 7%
Lieutenant Governor–going out on a limb here (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa 13%
Cheung 12%
Kerrigan 25%
Lake 52 %
Attorney General (first ballot)–I’m gutless on this one
Healey 49%
Tolman 51%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy 45 %
Finegold 30 %
Goldberg 25 %
Second ballot – top two finishers from first ballot (unless a candidate gets 50% on the first round
Governor (second ballot)
no second ballot per agreement, as Berwick cuts deeply into Grossman numbers on first ballot.
Lieutenant Governor (second ballot)
none, as Lake takes 50%+
Treasurer (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Conroy 65 %
Candidate 2 Finegold 35%
Grossman 35% (55% on 2nd)
Coakley 25% (45% on 2nd)
Berwick 20%
Kayyem 15%
Avellone 5%
The 2nd ballot will not be waived as the endorsement is important to Grossman.
LG
Lake – 40% (60% on 2nd)
Kerrigan – 35% (40% on 2nd)
Cheung – 15%
Arena-DeRosa – 10%
Possible agreement to waive 2nd ballot
AG
Healey – 60%
Tolman – 40%
Obviously no second ballot needed
TRG
Too close to call, likely to split close to equally and possibly waive 2nd ballot.
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone 6%
Berwick 22%
Coakley 22%
Grossman 39%
Kayyem 10%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa 15%
Cheung 20%
Kerrigan 31%
Lake 34%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey 44%
Tolman 56%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy 30%
Finegold 30%
Goldberg 40%
Gov:
Grossman: 41% (62% on second)
Coakley: 23% (38% on second)
Berwick: 22%
Kayyem: 9%
Avellone: 5%
LT Gov:
Lake: 34% (55% second)
Kerrigan: 30% (45% on second)
Cheung: 17%
Arena-DeRosa: 19%
AG:
Tolman: 58%
Healey: 42%
Treasurer:
Goldberg: 32%
Finegold: 35% (60% on second)
Conroy: 33% (40% on second)
Based on our comments so far the one thing I am 100% certain of is that none of us know what is going to happen this weekend. That being said it is time for me to go on the record:
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone 4%
Berwick 19%
Coakley 23%
Grossman 38%
Kayyem 16%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa 11%
Cheung 13%
Kerrigan 31%
Lake 45%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey 30%
Tolman 70%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy 21%
Finegold 36%
Goldberg 43%
I’m going to skip the second ballot predictions as that is a fools game. My Gov guesses are based on the fact that Avellone is telegraphing the fact that he will not make the 15% due to his criticism of the convention process and this will hurt him and lower his already low delegate numbers However he was having some success in central Mass. and those delegates are very likely to show up at the convention.
Though he will come close, in the end, I don’t think he Berwick will overcome Coakley in delegate votes.
Kayyems delegates are passionate or they would not be backing an outsider and they are sure to show up this weekend. This fact and the high profile state house endorsements Kayyem received today and I feel pretty confident she gets her 15%.
… but (see my numbers above) I do believe Don Berwick will come in 2nd on the 1st ballot. This may be partly wishful thinking on my part, but my many and varied sources confirm that this is the general thinking.
Out here in the Left Part of the Bay State (the western four counties), I see surprisingly little support for Kayyem. I say surprising (to me) because I think she generated a lot of early enthusiasm, but that doesn’t seem to have resulted in very many committed delegates.
The electronic tally that is new this time will create an interesting dynamic. If we get halfway through the alphabet and it appears that only 3 candidates will have a realistic chance to get on the Primary ballot, I wonder if some of those who haven’t voted yet will be inclined to throw their support to one of those.
…until after the voting is completed. The delegates will not be seeing trend lines or numbers in real time.
…the running electronic tally may well be visible within each senate district as the votes are being taken. And even if the handhelds do not display running totals (or if the shadow tellers are successful in the anticipated pandemonium of keeping their tallies confidential!), there will be enough folks in most senate district keeping running tallies the old fashioned way to enable delegates to have a pretty good sense of how their district is voting as their respective turns come up. As in any public roll call, the later votes in the roll can be and sometimes are influenced by those who vote earlier. Until we can emulate the House of Representatives and enable every delegate to vote simultaneously, this will continue to be a reality.
…but as you allude to that’s not really being changed by the electronic devices. Random delegates should be in their seats and not looking over shoulders of tellers. As it is each district will have a 17-person mob walking the aisles and stairs during the vote. I really hope the delegates are admonished to stay in their seats and stay out of the way for everyone’s safety.
I am going to be a shadow teller, using the electronic devise to transmit votes to the server. I went to a training last weekend, and used the interface. The tally for the senate district will not be visible in the delegation, though the campaigns will be able to see the count in real time.
As for the logistics, the votes for all four contested races (AG, Treasurer, LG, Governor) will be recorded at the same time. Delegates will need to be prepared to cast all four votes as soon as the speeches conclude.
The top two candidates will go on to the second ballot, and all the second ballots will be taken simultaneously. Thus, if Grossman views it in his interests to go on to a second ballot (which I suspect is the case) there isn’t any logistical reason for a down-ballot candidate to withdraw if there is a possibility of gaining the designation. That said, if the first place candidate on the first ballot is in the mid-40s, and the second place candidate is in the low 20s, the second place finisher might have an incentive to not have a recorded vote on a second ballot. Obviously, as a teller, I will need to hang around for the second ballot, but I also don’t expect to be spending the evening in Worcester.
ALSO – the roll will be taken starting at 10:00. Be there or risk losing your vote.
So, it won’t be “public” knowledge, but I have to believe that if any campaign sees it in their interest to make the running tally known, they will spread the word among their supporters.
If that is the case I’m pretty sure everyone’s twitter feed will be full of the results as they happen.
Governor
Avellone 5%
Berwick 23%
Coakley 27% (43% on second)
Grossman 30% (57% on second)
Kayyem 15%
Lieutenant Governor
Arena-DeRosa 8%
Cheung 15%
Kerrigan 19%
Lake 58% (no second ballot, Lake clear 50%)
Attorney General
Healey 33%
Tolman 67%
Treasurer
Conroy 42% (61% on second)
Finegold 31% (39% on second)
Goldberg 27%
A second ballot is not guaranteed. If the top two winners on the first ballot decide that a second ballot is too risky and all other candidates who garnered at least 15% on the first ballot agree, a second ballot can be waived. This happened in the LG race in 2006 and the Auditor’s race in 2010.
I bet this will be the case in at least one race this convention!
You can’t lose your ballot position and might get the endorsement. Only the top two need to agree, not everyone who got 15%. Also, I’m pretty sure Tim Murray got the 2006 convention endorsement, but it may have only taken one ballot by virtue of his getting a majority in one try.
In 2010 in the Auditor’s race, both of the top two candidates agreed to withdraw. There was no endorsed candidate for Auditor in 2010.
In 2006 in the LG’s race, the candidate who finished second withdrew and the candidate who finished first, Tim Murray, was endorsed by acclamation. There was technically a second ballot, but it was by voice vote, since only one candidate remained in contention for the endorsement.
From the Convention Rules…
Rule 3.C.2
“A final ballot for endorsement shall include only the two candidates receiving the highest number of votes on the first ballot who are still in contention for the endorsement.”
As I understand the rule, candidates who do not finish in the top two have no say in whether or not there is a second ballot.
Kate, the operative language here is “…who are still in contention for the endorsement”. Arguably, the #2 finisher on a first ballot declining to contest on a second ballot takes that candidate “out of contention”, and leaves the #1 and #3 finishers as the “two candidates…still in contention”. I believe that this construction may have been in mind when possible 2nd ballots – and ways to avoid them – were being discussed following the 1st ballots in 2010 and, iirc, also 2006. I do know that one of the 2010 auditor candidates recently confirmed that John Walsh had asked all 3 of them whether they wished to contest on a 2nd ballot. (If memory serves, there was an announcement at the end of the rather long counting delay after the 1st ballot in 2006, to the effect that all three of that year’s LG candidates had agreed to dispense with a second ballot. Admittedly, most of us do not have perfect memory of every minute of a convention 8 years ago, but that is what I recall.)
as two independent requirements:
(1) Being one of “the two candidates receiving the highest number of votes on the first ballot.” This is a threshold requirement. If you weren’t in the top two on the first ballot, you’re not eligible for the endorsement, no matter who decides not to contest a second ballot.
(2) Being “still in contention for the endorsement.” Even if you were one of the top two on the first ballot, you won’t be on the second ballot if you take yourself off, either unilaterally or in agreement with the other top finisher.
I thought I understood the goal this year was to avoid some of the issues of past years by limiting it to the top two.
Joe Avellone =2%
Berwick=18%
Coakly= 25%
Grossman 40%
Kayem=15% at best
Arena 10%
Kerrigan 40%
Lake 50%
Healey 45%
Tolman 55%
Conroy 30
Finegold 30%
Golberg 40%
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone 8%
Berwick 20%
Coakley 19%
Grossman 38%
Kayyem 15%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa 10%
Cheung 27%
Kerrigan 40%
Lake 23%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey 48%
Tolman 52%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy 13%
Finegold 45%
Goldberg 42%
Second ballot –
Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Grossman 60%
Candidate 2 Berwick 40%
Lieutenant Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Kerrigan 55%
Candidate 2 Cheung 45%
Treasurer (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Finegold 53%
Candidate 2 Goldberg 47%
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone _6__%
Berwick _22_%
Coakley __19_%
Grossman _40_%
Kayyem _13_%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa __21_%
Cheung __27_%
Kerrigan _23__%
Lake __29_%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey _39__%
Tolman _61__%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy __25_%
Finegold _29__%
Goldberg _46__%
I believe the Governor’s race has the most data, and clarity moving into the convention, and I feel good about those predictions. As far as the down ballot races go, I feel the speeches will dictate much of the balloting.
What does the winner get? An absentee ballot for the next convention?
I did predict Catholics getting a Latin American pope last year, and the 2011 Bruins Stanley Cup, so I have a semi decent track record, though I also infamously predicted Hillary wouldn’t run in 2008.
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone 5%
Berwick 25%
Coakley 22%
Grossman 36%
Kayyem 12%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa 10%
Cheung 13%
Kerrigan 39%
Lake 38%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey 35%
Tolman 65%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy 22%
Finegold 41%
Goldberg 37%
Second ballot –
Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Grossman 54%
Candidate 2 Berwick 46%
Lieutenant Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Lake 58%
Candidate 2 Kerrigan 42%
Treasurer (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Finegold 59%
Candidate 2 Goldberg 41%
Well, whatever the word is, the Herald wins the award for their own predictions of what will happen at the Convention.
Among the laughers is their wrap-up: “Coakley committed no major gaffes and declared pride in her record as attorney general, which amounts to a win for the party’s undisputed front-runner.” Undisputed? I like Martha, and I think she has indeed been a great AG, but I’ll be surprised if she finishes better than 3rd on Saturday.
Yeah, maybe. Grossman will probably have a fairly wide lead over the other candidates. But maybe not. If Martha does better than I expect, it may be a fairly close 3-way race. Can Steve really afford to take a chance on not winning the 1st ballot?
Coakley most likely won’t win the delegate vote, but if she doesn’t do anything that will resonate negatively with average voters outside the hall the whole convention is just a small bump in the road to September for her. I think that’s what they’re saying.
A lot of people have mentioned the possibility of Grossman tossing delegates to Kayyem. I agree with you that it’s not likely. Although, personally, I don’t see any chance at this point for Grossman to hit 50% on the first ballot. I do expect him to win the convention’s endorsement on the 2nd.
That sounds to me like they are expecting Martha to win the Convention. Then, they do go on to say that it’s not a sure thing, but the entire article is a discussion of how candidates will fare at the Convention.
I don’t think there’s a chance in hell of that happening.
I originally read the piece to mean that getting out of Worcester without a major screwup is a convention “win” for Coakley, not that she’s going to win the delegate vote. Your quote clearly shows otherwise. Perhaps they’re trying to create the impression for their readers that she’s the convention favorite, so as to mock her all the more when Grossman wins the endorsement.
Governor (first ballot)
Avellone 3%
Berwick 24%
Coakley 25%
Grossman 43%
Kayyem 5%
Lieutenant Governor (first ballot)
Arena-DeRosa 12%
Cheung 20%
Kerrigan 27%
Lake 41%
Attorney General (first ballot)
Healey 42%
Tolman 58%
Treasurer (first ballot)
Conroy 33%
Finegold 27%
Goldberg 40%
Second ballot – top two finishers from first ballot (unless a candidate gets 50% on the first round
Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Grossman 58%
Candidate 2 Coakley 42%
Lieutenant Governor (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Lake 55%
Candidate 2 Kerrigan 45%
Treasurer (second ballot)
Candidate 1 Goldberg 60%
Candidate 2 Conroy 40%
Avellone 4%
Berwick 24%
Coakley 14%
Grossman 43%
Kayyem 15%