The Results – BMG Predicts the Convention Results

I hope I’m not stealing Pablo’s thunder here. In his post earlier this week he asked for folks to predict the convention results.

I’ve tallied up the results of the 25 people who participated (the full spreadsheet can be found here).

First the Governors race:

The hive mind of BMG believes that Grossman, Coakley, and Berwick will make the cut and garner the 15% needed to get on the primary ballot. In fact, of these three candidates, only Coakley had a less than 100% prediction to make the cut (Coakley @ 96%). 24 of the 25 votes (96%) had Grossman garnering the most delegates while 4% had Berwick as the leader. Kayyem on average only achieved 12% with 40% of results believing she would make the necessary 15%.There wasn’t a single response that believed Avellone would make the cut.

Here you can see the range of values received for each candidate.The tightest range was for Avellone and the broadest range for Grossman. You can see that no candidate received 50% of the vote on the first ballot with any respondent.

Lieutenant Governor

21 of the 25 participants weighed in on the Lt. Gov race (I threw out one participant who only gave %’s for 3 of the candidates).

The average response would have all 4 candidates achieving more than 15% of the vote. 100% of respondents believed Lake would make the cut, Kerrigan made the cut with 95% of respondents. Cheung and Arena-DeRosa were at 57% and 43% respectively. This suggests that Arena-DeRosa has the toughest road to the 15% mark. There was more uncertainty in the Lt. Gov race versus the Governor race – this can be seen in the range of votes each candidate received. You can see that only Lake received any votes greater than 50% with 14.3% of respondents believed Lake would achieve the 50% mark.

Attorney General

The attorney general race is between Healey and Tolman. 23 of you weighed in on this race with the general consensus being that Tolman would get the most delegates. In fact, 73.9% believed Tolman would get the most votes versus 26.1% believing Healey would emerge with the most votes.

The ranges were the widest of any race suggesting this race has the most uncertainty.

Treasurer

The final race is for treasurer pitting Conway, Finegold, and Goldberg against each other. This looks to be a close race with no clear front-runner. Overall, Goldberg received the highest votes at 36.3% followed by Finegold @ 34.4% and Conroy at 29.2%.

From the range of votes chart below you can see that only Finegold received any votes suggesting he would get more than 50% of the vote (with just a single response giving him more than 50%). Conroy was the only candidate to not make the 15% threshold, but again, this was only in a single case.

I’m going to wrap up this look here. If anyone wants to put together the second round then please feel free, but I’ve run out of time at this point 🙂

 

Good luck to all the candidates – and I’m sure we’ll be back here Saturday evening to weigh in on the results versus our predictions.

–Kevin