Another poll out today shows Donald Trump not just up, but way up, in the Republican primary race. If you’re keeping score at home, CNN’s new poll has Donald Trump at 32%, Ben Carson at 19%, and everyone else under 10% (Jeb! leads that motley crew with 9%, followed by Ted Cruz at 7%; everyone else is at 5% or less).
But what’s more interesting than the horserace numbers is a couple of stories out today suggesting that Trump isn’t just ahead – he’s setting the agenda. CNN’s poll, as Greg Sargent observes, shows that the number of GOP voters who care a lot about immigration has surged dramatically since Trumpmania began – much to the chagrin of party pooh-bahs who were hoping to downplay immigration after the debacle of 2012. And it’s hard to see a plausible explanation for that other than Trump himself, who has talked about immigration in more incendiary terms than any other national figure in recent years.
And it’s not just immigration. Today’s Globe observes that Trump’s departure from GOP orthodoxy on taxes by proposing higher taxes on the wealthy – noted here weeks ago – has not only caused a good deal of consternation among GOP Club For Growth-style elites whose sole raison d’etre is tax cuts, but is “starting to seep into the plans of his primary rivals” like Jeb!. Jeb!’s tax plan is of course, in truth, a disastrous giveaway to the rich, but he has tried to wrap it up in Trumpian populism (Trumpulism?) by claiming that he is cracking down on at least some wealthy folks (he, like Trump, would close the carried interest loophole that helps out the hedge fund guys) and cutting taxes for the middle class.
These developments, among others, seem to me to distinguish Trumpmania from, say, the brief surges that Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, and other flash-in-the-pan candidates have enjoyed in the past. Those candidates indeed saw their poll numbers rise quickly (and then fall again just as fast). But their actual proposals had negligible impact on the other candidates. (Remember 9-9-9?) That’s demonstrably not the case this year. Trump has already successfully baited Jeb!, Scott Walker, and others on immigration, and now he’s doing it on taxes. Whether or not Trump becomes the nominee – and, at the moment, I see no reason to back off my prediction that he will – he’s already influencing the other candidates on policy as well as politics, and he’ll continue to do so. And the GOP race continues to resemble a slow-motion train wreck from which one cannot possibly look away.
I completely agree with you that Trumpism is real, and like our esteemed senior Senator has pointed out, it should actually help us peel away many voters attracted to Trump on economic issues. His popularity shows among Republican voters should show our party big wigs that economic populism-broadly defined as a robust commitment to Social Security and Medicare and reining in Wall Street excesses should be a slam dunk issue for our nominee. Clinton and Sanders alike are preaching to the choir on those core issues, the latter with a more consistent record and fiery rhetoric drawing out record breaking crowds no other candidate has matched.
Yet, they are pining for a White Knight (aka centrist white male?) out of yesterday’s failed candidates?
I don’t mean to jump on your post with my question from a separate one, but the two posts are linked. I really don’t understand Democratic panic, and really don’t think I am expressing Pauline Kael (‘but all my friends voted for McGovern”) naivete on this one.
A Texas state legislator who’s used to getting his butt kicked in a red (and gerrymandered to be redder) state? Not exactly the voice of the center of the party.
These stories keep leaking out of DNC HQ as far as I’m concerned. It’s as if we would rather lose with a corporate candidate than win with a populist one. I really don’t get it.
Hillary versus Trump? I’m betting Trump wins. He’ll “get the vote out” for the same reason that people watch “American Idol”…..
Just read that he said that Carly Fiorina can’t win because she’s too ugly. I’m paraphrasing but that’s what he said about her!
Too many people forget their grade school years; specifically the fact that playground bullies are generally popular with the other kids.
Not to put to fine a point on it Trump’s biggest political asset is his offensiveness. For example, among Latino voters:
…and from the CNN/ORC Poll:
If he’s still leading then I might start thinking there’s anything to this. If so I am going to be more disappointed in my fellow Americans than I have probably ever been.
In the fight of competence v likability, likability always wins with the voters. Just ask Al Gore* or John Kerry, or Martha Coakley for that matter. When Brown began bullying Warren, she became more likable and he became significantly less so. Obama won the ‘rather have a beer with’ contest in both elections, especially in 2012.
*yes he won the popular vote, but he lost his homestate which shows how pervasive his issue was.
…and so was by definition a reasonable choice for voters to make. Even in 2000 he was the incumbent Governor of a large state, and yes he came from a family who values public service. George W. Bush was never a clown who was confused about the difference between the presidency and a reality show, or cause voters to become likewise confused. He didn’t run his mouth in a quest for the most obnoxious soundbite. While he may not have been the brightest bulb on the tree he was sincere in his beliefs and did show humanity for others. When I see signs and other media with his picture and the words, “Miss me yet?” my answer is not as President, but as an adult voice in the GOP I actually kind of do.
Even my dad, who lived through Nixon and Reagan, largely agrees with me on that one. I would even argue Iraq was a bigger foreign policy disaster than Vietnam in the long run. In many ways, we have won the Vietnam War in the long run thanks to trade and a common defense interest vis a vis Chinese expansion. They want even closer defense ties with us.
It makes the shameful loss of life that much more tragic and appalling, certainly worse than the Iraq War, but the damage at least was contained to one particular nation rather than engulfing a region in what could be decades of sectarian warfare. Even if we count the killing fields as a consequence of Vietnam, they pale in comparison to the human tragedy that has come out of the failed states of Libya, Syria and Iraq. All of which can be laid on Dubya’s doortstep.
And I think most folks knew about this in 2004, and having met some swing voters from that race in my nearly decade long midwestern sojurn, many said they just didn’t trust Kerry to care about the troops or the direction of the war, and felt, if dubya broke it he would feel compelled to fix it. A lot of people liked him for his gut check politics rather than the back and forth vacillations of a diplomat in waiting.
Anyway, I am just saying many reasonable folks couldn’t dream of America re-elected that disaster and it did so by a decent margin to boot. Don’t overestimate the gullibility of the American voter, we do so at our peril.
As much as Shrub screwed up, Ronald Reagan was by far the worst President ever I hold this claim to be self-evident and will not repeat my many previous comments on the subject.
..a “disaster” to use Trump’s favorite term, but again I never got the sense that Bush thought he was running for President just for the entertainment value.
New words, expressions in Shakespeare’s language:
Trumpism = a thing Trump does (e.g., saying about Fiorina, “Look at that face! Would anyone vote for that? […] Can you imagine that, the face of our next president?”)
Trumpulism = populism a la D.T.
‘You’ve been Donalded!’ = bitch-slapped on prime time TV
Trumpalooza = election contest with him as candidate
George Wallace is back.