and nobody knows which it is.
You sure can’t criticize this primary season for being boring. After all the nuttiness that we’ve seen (especially on the GOP side, it must be said) up to now, this week’s goings-on still stand out as, perhaps, unprecedented.
We’re less than a week away from the Iowa caucuses. Donald Trump holds a modest lead in the most recent Iowa polling, but Iowa is tough to poll because of the caucus system, so it’s certainly possible that Ted Cruz, or even someone else (most likely Rubio), could pull off a win based on those numbers. Trump holds a much bigger lead in other upcoming contests, as well as nationally. Standard campaign strategy in those circumstances would probably be not to rock the boat too dramatically. Try to win or take a strong second place in Iowa, and hope that the polling numbers hold in NH and beyond. Ride the wave.
Instead, Trump has gone far out of his way to antagonize the news network that holds the most sway over Republican primary voters: Fox News. Fox News is sponsoring the final pre-Iowa debate. Trump insisted that Megyn Kelly be removed as a moderator; Fox refused; so Trump walked. Bill O’Reilly tried desperately to get Trump to reconsider, but Trump now appears committed to holding a fundraising rally for veterans at the same time as the Fox debate.
Adding to the bizarreness of this whole thing, super-rich Ted Cruz backers offered to donate $1.5 million to the charity of Trump’s choice if he would debate Cruz one-on-one before Monday. Carly Fiorina then hopped on that alt-debate bandwagon, offering an additional $2 million to veterans’ charities if she could get in on the action.
The stakes are extraordinarily high in all this, it seems to me. By refusing to debate, Trump has succeeded in keeping himself in the headlines in the run-up to Iowa, while also removing the risk of saying something dumb that hurts him, or having an opponent finally figure out a way to get at him, during the debate. Both very big pluses for Trump. On the downside, the entire Fox News apparatus is now mightily pissed off at Trump, and may well intensify its efforts to bring him down. If the overlap between potential Trump voters and Fox News watchers is as substantial as you’d probably imagine, that seems to hold the possibility of really hurting Trump.
Cruz and Fiorina seem to me to have only helped Trump by making their alt-debate offers. It just makes them look desperate to appear on the same stage with him. And the weirdness of offering to give a lot of money to charity if he’ll agree is distasteful and pathetic. Once again, as has happened repeatedly this cycle, Trump lays a trap, and the others just walk right into it.
So. Will Fox News be so furious with Trump that they actually manage to bring him down? Or will Trump’s effort to shield himself from harm in the last week before voting begins by ducking the debate mean that the polls basically stay where they are? What do you think?
One thing seems certain. If Trump wins Iowa and New Hampshire, his withdrawing from the debate will probably be seen as one of the most brilliant political gambits in recent memory.
because the Emperor has no clothes. His ignorant, bombastic rhetoric has finally caught up with him. He doesn’t have a rational, coherent platform. Bigotry, xenophobia, misogyny, and selfish greed is not a winning strategy.
Plus the fact that Ted Cruz was debating champion at Princeton might have had something to do with his chickening out of the debate 🙂
In any event one thing is clear now : the bloom is off the rose and I predict that when Trump wins the Republican nomination he will refuse to debate the Democratic nominee because , like all bullies, he’s a coward.
Fred Rich LaRiccia
for the most part, here. But, how can it be that Trump is chicken? He’s performed fine in the debates. Arguably, given Trump’s voter base, he’s solidified his following in the previous debates. After several of the debates, the post-debate polling suggested that he was the clear winner. So, what’s to be scared of if you’re Trump? I think it makes Trump insane that Fox is profiting off of him. He’s been obsessed with his impact on the ratings from the first debate. “25 million viewers with me in the debate; without me, two million. Am I right?” And, since all Trump really cares about is money, money, money, money, money (and, obviously, “making America great again”), he thinks that by making Fox money, that he should have a say in who moderates, and what happens to the money. If they don’t want to play by his rules, then he won’t debate.
…so how will he react to the likes of Putin and Assad?
too much MSNBC, so I know that this is the argument of progressives. And, and I’m all for tearing The Donald down. I think he’s an affront to the country, and has nothing to offer. I just don’t think for a minute that he’s scared of M. Kelley. He’s way too much of a narcissistic, male Chauvinist, to think that. He operates on money, and control. So, I think that’s what this is about. He wants to show that the media can’t control him, and that when he’s making money for others, he’s entitled to control.
but yeah, you’re probably right. And it doesn’t seem like he is paying much of a penalty for it. Maybe this is a “I paid for this microphone, Mr. Green!” moment– except that the Donald is off stage. I am stumped by this campaign.
the traditional rules just don’t seem to apply. Disqualifying statements, positions, tactics not only don’t matter, they frequently have exactly the opposite impact that one would expect.
and continue to dominate the news cycles that way.
He could participate on his own terms. He asks his crowd at the rally if they want him to live comment on the debate. They say yes. So then Trump brings the feed into the building, riposte everything they’re saying, and they don’t know.
if he’s going to participate in any way it should be on the stage, I think he knows how pathetic he’s going to look watching the debate and commenting on twitter. I think Trump is going to completely blow off the event. Have his own “better” event at the same time.
World class, a world class event for da vets
The last two days, I’ve watched Megyn Kelly’s show, I switch back and forth to the show and seen parts I never watch Fox. I think there is a lot of interest on the channel and might be good for ratings.
It absolutely IS good for ratings.
This is SHOW BUSINESS, folks. Nothing is real.
Anyone who watched the World Wrestling Federation during the 1980s has seen all this before. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Carly Fiorina play the roles of Lou Albano, Rowdy Roddy Piper, and Cindi Lauper with Fox News playing the WWF. These debates are like the innumerable “grudge” matches and various “wrestle-mania” shows — spectacles where “cancellation” because of such disputes was all just part of the run-up.
Yawn.
Attempting to take any of this seriously is like attempting to understand the delusional rantings of a psychotic — I don’t mean that the GOP candidates are psychotic or delusional, I mean that the ENTIRE show is scripted and artificial, EACH of them is a created persona that has little or nothing to do with reality, and NONE of them cares one iota for actual fact or truth.
The truly horrifying thing is that one of these clowns MIGHT be our next President — and that so many Americans think that would be a good thing.
Well, now it’s the WWE, but Trump is very familiar with those antics. Literally.
He’s been on the WWE many times.
http://www.wwe.com/videos/playlists/donald-trump-greatest-wwe-moments
Precisely, awesome clip.
QED
Stan The Man Stasiak but that is a whole different thread.
The thought that any idiot can watch Trump, be swayed by some slick commercials and slogans and their vote counts as much as your more thoughtful deliberation must drive you crazy. We have become a democracy based on the 30 second sound bite.
We have restrictions on who can do things based on the idea that maturity is attained at a specific age (18,21,etc) and in the case of driving we must pass a basic test. Is it time to limit voting to people who have at least passed a test showing they have some knowledge of the functions of govt? Currently if a candidate promised everyone will get free ice cream and a million dollars he/she would probably get %20 of the vote.
This is theater. I’d bet Trump will be in the event tonight. It’s not in his nature to pass up that audience. If you watch any Fox, it’s clear that they’ve been supporting Trump. Early this week they talked all day about how Trump was really, truly committed to Iowa because he spent a night in a hotel there, an that puts to rest all notion he was running a fly-through campaign (which he is).
Here’s a scenario: Trump agrees to deign to be in the same room as Megan Kelly, Fox agrees to give wounded vets $$$$ to make up for Trumps “cancelled” event. Trump can present himself of the the gracious, conquering hero…commanding the show once again.
This caught my eye:
Bizarre, yes. But also a bit alarming. I assume Trump will decline these invitations, but it would be nice if a watchdop group asked the FEC for an advisory opinion on whether this sort of thing is legal. Which it probably is, in the post-Citizens United world … but these people aren’t racehorse owners challenging each other like in Seabiscuit. They’re running for President of the United States as part of a major party.
why it wouldn’t be legal for two candidates to get together and talk about stuff, and for groups backing those candidates to then give money to a charity. But if the TV networks got involved, then complications would ensue because of equal time rules.
campaign finance regulation (what’s left of it) does contain many baffling and counterintuitive provisions.
So there are rules around that, I think. But I don’t know.
Say a Mass. state rep has three primary opponents and is refusing to debate. One opponent makes a public donation, pressuring the rep to agree, but excluding the other two … I don’t know. Doesn’t feel right, but it’s probably allowed. It bears scrutiny.
Get them to agree yet again to write the $3.5M in checks. Then, cancel and browbeat them to donate to the charities anyway.
Trump: the great negotiator. Cruz and Fiorina, either heartless cheapskates or clueless marks.
That hasn’t slowed him down to this point. As he said, he could shoot someone and it wouldn’t affect his standing.
It all seems like some sort of performance art to me. At some point, I half expect him to just start laughing at everyone for taking him seriously. But the other half-expectation is that this is the real him.
First he will draw audience away from the debate, and he can “pontificate” on his own terms. At the debate the candidates will tear each other apart. They will ignore Trump for a change since it will make him look like a victim. Those remaining on the stage are likely to cause voter confusion. The result IMO is this will flatten out the percentage of the vote, and this will give Trump an even larger lead since votes will be homogenized among these contenders. Now comes the caucuses where you need at least 15% of those gathered to win delegates. This leads the distinct possibility that caucus goers will have to pick those who have greater than 15% or remain uncommitted. Trump ups his totals even more, gaining even more delegates.
To my mind his no show performance is a ploy to deliver even more delegates. Yes he is crazy like a fox. He also knows he could only do this in a GOP election.