I’ve been wondering about hard data on how many Democrats we could lose to Trump; or specifically how many were choosing between Bernie and Trump.
We have a little data on the first question; and this seems like a problem for us:
… This year, a “significant” number of registered Democratic voters went to the Massachusetts GOP, Galvin said. According to numbers provided by Galvin, 3,455 Democrats switched to the Republican Party.
Approximately 5,911 Republicans switched to un-enrolled status this year.
But the number of Democrats who decided to go for un-enrolled status, as of Feb. 29, is 16,347, according to Galvin.
These are not voters that Bernie could win over, even with an explicit class-based appeal. (Strange that his class appeal is mostly to affluent whites …)
I don’t get it. Actually I don’t want to get it, but I do. There are plenty of voters for whom their economic circumstances, ethnic privilege and national pride are wounded. They’re all tied together in their minds. “Make America Great Again” has a resonance to these folks.
Hillary needs to take notice. There were a few good new lines in her victory speech: “America has never stopped being great”, “love and kindness” (a bit on the nose, but nice compared with Trump).
But other than that, it’s the usual Democratic litany of issues without moral or thematic unity, and vague talk of opportunity rather than justice. “Opportunity” sounds great when it seems close at hand; but we’re disillusioned with false promise. We’re in a justice phase right now.
Those voters need to be won back. Trump talks about the loss of manufacturing all the time. He correctly blames competition from China –which is a dictatorship with scant labor or environmental protections. (You think Chinese people would vote for those protections if they could?) When Hillary turned against the TPP, that may have been an indication that she’s getting hip to the public’s mood. But it’s a matter of tone more than policy. Trump is, in his way, optimistic.
We need those voters back. Actually that’s begging the question: we need to completely rework the set of assumptions that lost them in the first place. The task for Hillary now, as it has been vs Bernie, is co-opt and win.
My former neighbor, aged 50.
When I first met him, and he found out I was a Republican, he started talking about right wing talk radio (huge fan). Not my thing, but I was polite. He is a union member and works for a utility. I looked up his voter registration and it was Democrat. I assume he registered at 18 and never changed it. I’m guessing these are Trump supporters who changed parties.
PS His job used to be great, but every year he makes less and works harder.
…than, say, Bernie Sanders? I really don’t understand people who let cultural prejudices be their first motivator, and frankly I’m not sure I want to. It’s 2016 for crying out loud – time to get over it!
I’m unrolled, and pulled a Democratic ballot to vote for Hillary because I endorsed her here, but absent that I might very possibly have joined the Gilmore revolution as a way of registering disapproval of Trump.
and making certain we’re talking exact comparison periods.
What is undeniable is the the ranks of the unenrolled are constantly increasing.
I do think Trump is pulling in new voters vs Romney. Whether he loses some of Romney’s voters (suburban women for example) remains to be seen.
AS noted above – probably some people did it to vote against Trump (for one of the others on the Rep ballot). I also think that there were some who pulled the Rep ballot to vote for Trump because they think he will be easier to defeat in the general (which I had some dems say to me they would have done if they had not already enrolled as dems).
is a good line?
Who is going to agree with that line? Anyone who has seen their quality of life go down, see an expanding wealth gap, is unemployed, or is just unhappy will think she does not “get it”.
Who will think
is a good line? Anyone who wants their life to be better.
I am not arguing the validity of the two statements only which one is better. Remember Reagan’s speech in 1980, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8EvFQLhqWPQ
It’s not like Bill Clinton Term 3.
because the guy that forced NAFTA thru is exactly what will win back the Trumpenproletariat.