Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Khazei explains why the polls are wrong, and how he will win

By

After yesterday’s WGBH debate, I caught up with Alan Khazei (who was chatting with another reporter who I think was from the Washington Post).  I started taping when he was talking about how the big story in the polls so far is the very high percentage of undecideds, and that he’s actually doing OK with voters who have actually decided.  (There’s an edit toward the end when Khazei chatted for a minute with the other reporter.)  There is actually some good news for Khazei in the crosstabs.  An impressive 80% of respondents thought that it was either “very” or “somewhat” important that a candidate refuse PAC and lobbyist money, and of the “definitely decided” crowd, Khazei is at 10% (rather than his overall 6% showing).

Khazei also talked about his big canvass last weekend (500 volunteers, 15,000 doors), how the numbers he’s seeing on the ground are much better than in the polls, and how, given the dynamics of a low turnout special election, he can pull off a win by investing in his field operation rather than in TV ads.  There’s a related story in today’s Globe.

It’s so Khazei, it just might work.  HA!  Thanks folks, I’m here all week.  Try the steak.

Please share widely!
fb-share-icon
Tweet
0

Comments

  1. …registered voters, …likely voters?  It seems to me that a low turnout primary is the most significant factor in the outcome and it does level the playing field.  

  2. This can absolutely be an election won on the ground, BUT, without the media presence, he just can’t overcome the name recognition of the other candidates.  Just as Sam Yoon pulled off surprising numbers during the primary due to a well put together ground game and some passionate supporters, Khazei could probably do the same.  But to overcome the top spot?  That is a much harder play.

  3. I think he will lose handily – probably a distant 4th place.  

    <

    p>If he can’t get my young friends (even as their second choice) who were Deaniacs and early-Obama supporters, he is in serious trouble.

    <

    p>My friends are either totally for Capuano or Coakley or undecided between those two.  

    <

    p>Also, his answer about drugs in the Commonwealth magazine questionnaire raises some doubts about his stances.  How can a supposed liberal actually repeat the completely debunked Marijuana as a gateway drug argument in this day and age?

  5. how he has been able to pull in so many volunteers.  Is he using City Year participants?  Are they volunteering during
    designated times of work? If he is rallying City Year participants to go door to door for him, is that legal?

    <

    p>This just seems very odd to me.  

    • In part for the ethical and legal questions you mention, however, I’m guessing former participants who felt they got a lot out of the program might be eager volunteers.

    • someone ran a poll on the US Senate candidates at Universahub a month ago.  It was Capuano followed by Coakley for about three days, then Khazei tweeted a link and asked supporters to vote. Khazei votes overtook Cap and Coakley in les than a day and kept going. Khazei ‘won’ handily.  Insignificant but illustrative of the loyalty he engenders and the communication he’s established.  

    • Almost certainly not.  As Neil says, there are a lot of people out there who really like him.  It’s quite possible that he will do much better than he’s polled thus far.

        • You missed my point.  I was walking straight by your “logic” and pointing out the absurdity of what you’re suggesting.

          • I don’t find it absurd, the idea of Khazei using City Year participant to push his campaign.  I think it’s quite possible and even most likely that if the participants themselves are not knocking on doors, then their friends and family are, or, as someone else suggested, past City Year employees are knocking on doors.

            <

            p>By the way, I am asking the questions in a serious way.

            <

            p>Marcus Graly responded with…

            <

            p>

            I doubt he is using current praticipents (0.00 / 0)
            In part for the ethical and legal questions you mention, however, I’m guessing former participants who felt they got a lot out of the program might be eager volunteers.

            <

            p>which was a very helpful answer, and something I had not considered. I’m sure there are many past participants who would be supporting him.  I do think it would be a huge mistake if he used current employees to push his campaign.  I hope that he is not because it might get ugly if it turns out that he is. I don’t know if it’s legal/ethical/whatever.  Maybe someone could explain the legal/ethical implications, or if there are any.  

            • You’re innocently accusing him of breaking a long list of ethical and legal constraints, all in the vein of “hoping”.

              <

              p>Puh-leaze.

              <

              p>I do think it would be a huge mistake for Coakley and Capuano to use current state employees (AG, Lege) to work for them on election day despite not taking a legal day off (giving comp days later).  The difference: the CityYear kids aren’t being used inappropriately.  State employees?  That’s a different story.

              <

              p>I’m not a Khazei supporter (I’m undecided actually), but this concern trolling is really obnoxious.  I mean, I hope Glen Beck didn’t rape and murder a girl in 1990, and if he didn’t, why doesn’t he prove it?

              • I have every right to question how in the heck he was able to get 500 people out knocking on doors for him. Even Martha Coakley, with a great portion of the women’s rights movement behind her, was unable to achieve such numbers.

                <

                p>I wasn’t “innocently accusing him of breaking a long list of ethical and legal constraints”.  I was outright inquiring if he is doing it.

                <

                p>You can call me a “concern troller” and imply that I’m obnoxious if you like. It’s not going to stop me from asking questions about anything I want to.  

                <

                p>But in the interest of pleasing you, stomv, I will, with regard to this concern, be a silent, submissive, good little political activist. I will NEVER ask about this particular issue again on this website again.  OK!

                <

                p>I will be waiting for you to now call this is a strawman argument.

    • That would be against AmeriCorps rules.

      <

      p>That said, it helps if a lot of young people (who tend not to be married, and therefore have more free time) know you and like you.

      <

      p>Nothing odd about it, really.

      <

      p>

      • the younger ones might rally their friends and make it a fun day out. It is fun to go out knocking on doors and convincing people why your candidate is the right one to vote for. I wish I could do it more but there is just no time.

    • Candidate — $ Raised — $ on hand
      Coakley — $1.9 million — $1.9 million
      Capuano — $1.8 million — $1.1 million
      Khazei — $1.2 million — $500,000
      Pagliuca — $350,000 — $17 gajillion
      Brown (R) — $290,000 — $220,500
      Robinson (R) did not respond to inquiries

  7. The ones who say its important that a candidate refuse PAC and lobbyist money?

    <

    p>My guess is, they don’t care so much really.

  8. Martha had 189 canvassers out, not 109–big difference.  Martha also has a headquarters full of phone bankers every night.  He’s hoping the voters will not come out.  Democracy.  Nice.  And he’s the son of a doctor too.

    • It’s a special election in December.  Of course it will be low turnout.  And he wants to win, as do all the candidates.  They all hope that their voters come out and the other guys’ don’t; anyone who says different is a fibber.

  9. …yet, as even the post above this one points out, he just released ANOTHER TV advertisement today.

    <

    p>Khazei the biggest grass-roots efforts? I don’t think so.

    <

    p>This video is fraught with inaccurate information.

    <

    p>Just last weekend, a small fraction of the effort that’s already gone to the Campaign, Coakley volunteers contacted over 10,000 voters and had over 50 points of visibility around the state.  

  10. The only evidence I’ve seen yet that Khazei is even on the ballot was a single yard sign in West Cambridge.  No ads, No canvassers, No mailings, No nothing.  Like DoubleMan, my friends mostly talk about Capuano and Coakley.  Khazei is the Ron Paul of this race: a small number of very loyal supporters who are willing to open their pockets for him, but that’s about all.

      • I just don’t think he can win.  500 canvassers is not that many in a state of 6.5 million.  If he can’t get his name out there, people won’t vote for him.  Nothing against the man, that’s just reality.

        • I keep trying to think of a comparable race to this one, but it’s truly hard to find one.

          <

          p>The 1984 Democratic primary had a turnout of about 30% of eligible voters at about 790,000.  Today, we have about 1 million maybe a million and a quarter more registered voters and I still don’t think we’ll hit that number.  There is way too much left over burnout from 2008 and disinterest in this election.  So, the candidates don’t need to get even close to 6.5 million.

          <

          p>15,000 doors can be somewhere in the ballpark of 30,000 people.  It’s not about convincing them to vote, it’s about talking to them.

          <

          p>Signs don’t vote.

          <

          p>Ad blitzing without the proper ground game builds a weak foundation.

          <

          p>I’m not claiming he can win, I’m just talking about what works, and he’s doing it.  See Gerber and Green

          • http://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele…

            <

            p>You have about 1.6 million Democrats, plus 2.1 million unenrolled, for a total of 3.7 million potential voters.  I don’t know how good Khazei’s targeting operation is, perhaps I haven’t been visited since I live in Somerville and am therefore “written off”.  Also knocking on 15,000 doors doesn’t mean you get 15,000 people answering the door and willing to talk to you.  I’m not quite sure what he meant by that, maybe he meant 15,000 voter contacts, but I suspect it was less. I don’t see where your getting the 15,000 doors = 30,000 voters, usually only one person is at the door, if any, and that person may not vote or may already be committed to another candidate or may not be sold by your pitch. None of this is saying that it’s a waste of time.  If he had 5,000 canvassers, rather than 500, I might be impressed.

            • It doesn’t matter how many registered voters there are, because they’re not all going to vote.  How many do you think are going to come out?  3 Million? 2? 1? 500,000?

              <

              p>Most canvassers aren’t canvassing studio apartments.  It isn’t about getting everyone in the home to the front door, it’s about that one person repeating what they heard to someone else in their home.

              <

              p>

              15,000 doors can be somewhere in the ballpark of 30,000 people.

              <

              p>It’s about the potentiality of contact.

              <

              p>And again:

              It’s not about convincing them to vote, it’s about talking to them.

              <

              p>You’re starting a conversation in a race where a majority are undecided or weakly committed to another candidate.

              <

              p>I would love to hear about the canvass with 5,000 people, btw.

Archives