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Capuano Cut Coakley’s Lead To Just 7%? [Updated]

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That’s what Bernstein is reporting via the other two campaigns:

The two other campaigns each claim that Coakley’s lead over Capuano is now in single digits — right around seven percentage points. That would be down tremendously from the Boston Globe poll from about two weeks ago, which had the lead at 21 points.

He noted this with the caveat that he has not viewed the actual materials.

*Update* Capuano’s folks say 7%, Coakley’s say 21%

Tom Kiley, pollster for Michael Capuano, and Celinda Lake, pollster for Martha Coakley, both confirmed for me today what I reported yesterday. Kiley says his poll, taken Sunday and Monday of this week, has Coakley around 35%, and Capuano 7 points behind, in the high 20s. Lake says her poll, taken Sunday through Tuesday, has Coakley at 41%, and Capuano at 20%. (Both have Pagliuca roughly around 10%-12% and falling slightly; Khazei around 7-10% and rising slightly; and some 15%-20% undecided.)

Nothing new on the third campaign that also had 7%:

As for the third candidate’s internal polling that I mentioned yesterday, I have not gotten any further confirmation yet. A source with that other campaign had told me that their polling — like Capuano’s — also shows Coakley’s support dropping, and her lead over Capuano down to around 7 points.

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  1. The two other campaigns each claim that Coakley’s lead over Capuano is now in single digits — right around seven percentage points. That would be down tremendously from the Boston Globe poll from about two weeks ago, which had the lead at 21 points.

    The Globe poll had Coakley at 43%, Capuano at 22%, and Pagliuca at 15%.

    Coakley’s support, these sources say, has dropped steadily and is now well below 40 percent.

    A source with Coakley’s campaign, however, says that their own just-completed poll shows her maintaining “a significant double-digit lead,” with figures “incredibly similar” to those in the Globe poll.

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    p>Two campaigns claiming 7% split Coakley from Capuano while coakley’s campaign says still 21% (Coakley at 43%, Capuano at 22%, and Pagliuca at 15%.) If in fact, two campaigns have it as 7%, hard to see how the odds are not with their polling not Coakleys.

  3. …what other campaign would leak that Capuano is within 7, and what would their motivation be to leak that?

    • with who they see as the potential winner maybe? I do find it odd. My best guess that Paglicua has the money to be tracking and Khazei does not, but who knows.

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      p>Two polls independent of each other tracking so close is a great sign for the Capuano campaign.  

  4. I’ve gone back and forth several times between thinking Capuano can pull it off and thinking Coakley has it sewn up.  It felt like Mike had some solid momentum, but if this turns out to be true, I will be firmly in the optimistic column for good.  I tend to think Capuano’s voters will be slightly more likely to actually show up, so an official poll coming out with the lead down to single digits would be huge!

  5. I wondered what the spin from the Capuano campaign would be on their website and instead of any declarations of victory I found this from the Capuano campaign. Within minutes of the debate being over the following blog post is up:

    <

    p>

    All Capuano for Senate FEC filings can be found at  link

    <

    p>Good work.  

  6. I’m hard pressed to think of a race where the internals were right and the published polls were wrong.  So I wouldn’t put much stock in this.  No doubt the Globe or someone will be releasing a poll or two this week.  That’s what will tell us if the race is changing or not.

    • …to use as a reference.

      <

      p>I can think of any number of races where the internals were on-spot. That is, however, irrelevent in this case, since there’s no public release of the marginals, crosstabs, and sampling techniques.

      <

      p>Absent that, it’s just spin.  Welcome spin from my perspective, but spin nontheless.

  7. Effectively erased any doubt that this has definitely become a two way race. Even Khazei’s question to Pags, which he basically turned into a question for Martha and Mike, reinforced the obvious. And now Pags and Khazei’s own internal polling is showing Mike catching up with Coakley.

    <

    p>Mike’s performance in this debate will just boost his momentum. Very impressive showing. I particularly liked his answer to the question about his impatience (which I first thought was an awful waste of a question.) But he turned it into a testament to his greatest strengths: his careful balance of idealism and pragmatism. Yes, he has lofty goals and high standards, but he also understands the obstacles Congress faces and is well versed in the challanges of lawmaking. Nothing wrong with passion, as long as it’s tempered by realism.

    <

    p>Great response to Martha’s question as well. He came off as cooperative, gracious, and pleasant while still showing the depth of his policy experience. I think he’ll win over some of the people who had found him too abrasive in previous debates.  

    <

    p>With the race tightening and election day so close, this is going to be a very exciting week!

  9. more if it is good weather.  And after last night’s debate, perhaps I am underestimating. Cap and Pags and Khaz may have helped her rack up a few more percentages.

        • will see the light about Martha’s woeful and inadequate illiberal views on civil and Constitutional rights and vote for Capuano who is the candidate they’re been looking for.  

          • I am already reconciling myself to the fact that she became the front-runner early right after Ted Kennedy died and people were paying attention by announcing she was running and using the funeral coverage to effectively cement her lead, then everyone went back to halloween, thanksgiving, and christmas preparations, and Bostonians were more concerned about re-electing Mumbles and they basically forgot this whole special election was happening. Outside of the grassroots, which I would argue are more evenly split between the three credible candidates, I don’t see the race getting much closer. Women will break for Coakley, the elderly will break for Coakley, and the undecides will if they think she is the winner.

            <

            p>And the saddest fact is how few of my friends realize that there even is an election and that they can still vote in it absentee. My generation really only bothers to vote every four years it seems, and only when they have a guy they hate (Dubs in 04, 06) or a guy they love (Obama in 08). Youth turnout will go down to 96 levels in 2012.

            <

            p>My prediction:

            <

            p>Coakley: 45%
            Capuano: 26%
            Pagliuca: 17%
            Khazei: 12%

            <

            p>Had Pagliuca and Khazei stayed out, especially Khazei, Cap would’ve won. Also Pags will get more votes than Khazei because he has been on the air and has been relatively positive and that will sway some of the undecided who don’t pay attention. Outside of BMG and the university communities, nobody knows or cares who Khazei is. Coakley will win a plurality and go on to trounce Brown 66-34. I will likely write in Mike Capuano since I really don’t think any of his opponents are qualified to be Senator.  

            • til it’s over.  Don’t give up…there’s about 10 minutes left in the quarter and I am not leaving the field yet and I hope you will do the same.  There’s plenty of game left.  Please get a hold of your family and friends and talk about this race.  I have been bringing it up on conversation with family and friends and walking through the various issues with them that they find important and pointing out (repeatedly) how Cap’s the guy.  

              • Justice4All: I like it better when we are on the same side…one way or the other I am sure we will be again soon.  I know Martha and I know Mike and have supported both in the past. They are good progressives both. I want the best of both worlds in this one: Martha to the Senate and Mike stays in House, both standing on our side in DC. And the bonus of that wish also sends the first woman to the US Senate from Massachusetts…I think it’s long over due and Martha will do us all proud come January.

              • I’ve got my mom, sister, brother, and five friends so far voting Tuesday for Capuano.  

                • Already have a ton of Capuano votes, they were voting for him anyway, but I just wanted to make sure.  Try working high school friends as well, I had a recent anniversary and since we just talked a few weeks ago, I’ve been working to get their butts to the polls.  

                • SEIU for Coakley called me today, the person asked me if I would support Coakley for the primary.  I said no, and waited for the pitch.  But the pitch never came, he just said thank you and hung up.  Pretty damn effective, why even work the phones?  If this is what Coakley is counting on for support it might be a long evening on Tuesday.

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