Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Prediction Time

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This has been an interesting campaign.  I’m looking forward to 8 PM on Tuesday.  

Let’s have some fun with predictions.  I don’t have any BMG merchandise to give away, but I’ll offer to highlight an appropriate event in the DDemDispatch for the campaign of choice for the person submitting the winning entry.  

Here are the rules:

1) Predict the percentage of vote for each Democratic candidate.

2) Predict the voter turnout percentage.

3) Bonus points for percentage in the Republican primary.  

4) Bonus points for the best narrative.

Game on.

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  1. Dems:

    <

    p>Coakley: 38%
    Capuano: 29%
    Pagliuca: 18%
    Khazei: 14%
    Other: 1%

    <

    p>Turnout: 26% of all registered Democrats

    <

    p>Republican:

    <

    p>Brown: 78%
    Robinson: 21%  
    Other: 1%

    <

    p>Turnout: 19% of all registered Republicans

    <

    p>Democratic Story:

    <

    p>In the early hours of Tuesday morning the relatively low turnout that will encapsulate what has been for the average voter a relatively uninteresting and irrelevant election occurring at an inconvenient time before crucial presents and food stuffs are purchased will result in an anemic victory for the front-runner Martha Coakley. Most of her early supporters will have continued to support her, some of her more left wing supporters will have been drawn to the Khazei campaign (they don’t like Capuano’ tone and anger), some will have forgotten about their pledges and stayed home. But a base of middle aged women, organization Democrats, and the elderly, in part prompted by an early morning call from none other than President Clinton will dutifully trudge to the polls and cast their vote for the candidate with the most women, most old people in her ads, and the candidates backed by Bill.

    <

    p>Michael Capuano’s support is incredibly deep but unfortunately not wide enough to win the election. Had he a few more week he might have been able to gain more statewide recognition to run competitively west of Worchester and north of the Boston metro area. Additionally that pesty Alan Khazei stole all the money he expected to get from committed liberals, and even the Barack Obama supporting college students who he expected would flock to his progressive bona fides and credentials. The day will end with a brief hint of victory in the early returns coming out of the Boston metro area where Mike will have a somewhat solid lead, but will be dampened when the polls close out West and returns come in from the suburb. To Mike’s credit his range of support will be the most diverse, getting minorities, white ethnics, the elderly, some youth, and a decent chunk of middle aged people. He will also have the plurality of self described liberals and progressives.

    <

    p>A decent chunk of Commonwealth voters, many of them middle aged men that are nominally Democratic, will head to the polls. They liked that a buinessman who isn’t tainted by politics and had a real job for a living is fighting the populist fight for their jobs. They think he will deliver on his promise of more jobs and they liked the fact that his ads that appeared on their tvs, the only outlet where they get political information, tended to favor positive messages about jobs. Working women in their late 20 to early 40s will also find this compelling, especially because his ads appeared most frequently during the day when they were tuned in. Also a decent chunk of people paid to volunteer, or who know people we were paid to volunteer, will stick it out for Steve. A decent showing that builds his name recognition and allows him to run for another office during a regular election cycle down the line. He made no major gaffes but made no waves either, but could jump in to a statewide race pretty soon.

    <

    p>Lastly those latte sipping, Volvo driving, 1.20/2009/Kerry Edwards bumper sticker car drivers, likely born in another state but educated at one of our fine institutions, quite possibly Harvard or MIT will come out and vote for the candidate that embodies the same hope and change they felt for Obama. He is a solid progressive, untainted by actually serving in politics which they admire, committed to some free market ideas on education and service showing he is an innovator not an ideologue. Will pick up respectable second place showings in affluent neighborhoods in Boston, the entire towns of Cambridge, Newtown, Brookline, Arlington, and Lexington, but will not have broad support outside of the Boston area and will win no major towns. Will go down as a progressive do gooder fighting the good fight and will either turn his loss into a future gain a la Michael Dukakis or fade into obscurity like Mark Roosevelt and Robert Reich.

    <

    p>The Republicans:

    <

    p>A smaller, whiter, more cynical crowd shows up to its polling place to take a stand. Most are attracted to Scott Brown, the Republican they know is still resisting the line on taxes, he won’t waste our hard earned money on immigrants, waste our time allowing gays to marry, and he’ll kick some ass on foreign policy. Some independents also find him preferable to the Democrats. A lot of nominal Republicans and independents won’t show up since their is not much of a contest. Expect a few remnants of the Yankee bred to get out of their stretchers and walk over in their Brooks Brothers jackets with matching bow tie to cast a vote of principle in favor of Jack E. Robinson. Expect a few Ron Paul fans giving him their support as well. Other than that, not too much excitement to report, and the media will declare this race over rather quickly, though Channel 5 might devote more time to it to give some spotlight to their very own Gail Huff.  

  2. Dems:
    Coakley: 36%
    Capuano: 33%
    Khazei: 16%
    Pagliuca: 14%
    Other: 1%

    <

    p>Turnout: 12% of all registered Democrats

    <

    p>Republican:

    <

    p>Brown: 88%
    Robinson: 11%  
    Other: 1%

    <

    p>Turnout: 8% of all registered Republicans

  3. Democrats:

    <

    p>Coakley – 36%
    Capuano – 30%
    Kay-Z – 20%
    Pags – 14%

    <

    p>15% of Dems.

    <

    p>Coakley wins with women.  

    <

    p>Republicans:

    <

    p>Brown – 78%
    Robinson – 22%

    <

    p>40,000 voters.

    <

    p>Brown is the only legitimate candidate.  

  4. Capuano 35%
    Coakley 33%
    Khazei 21%
    Pagliuca 11%

    <

    p>Turnout 13%

    <

    p>Brown 72%
    Robinson 28%

    <

    p>The majority of the low turnout votes came from diehard Democrats.  Capuano’s numbers among urban, middle-class voters overwhelmed the more casual suburban, statewide support for Coakley.  Mayors were big.  Khazei earned his stripes.  Pags, not so much.

  5. I stick by what I said then:

    <

    p>Coakley – 41%
    Capuano – 32%
    Khazei – 16%
    Pagliuca – 11%

    <

    p>Call it 255,000 votes

    <

    p>Among Republicans
    Brown – 70%
    Robinson – 30%  (His campaign actually called my Dad)

    <

    p>Call it 80,000 votes

    <

    p>Just seeking to be wrong in as many places as possible.

    • Congrats! Let me know if you have an “appropriate event” that you want me include in the Dispatch.  GGW included my post in his contest, But, I didn’t do the reverse.  

  6. Thanks for doing this Kate!

    <

    p>Coakley 31%
    Capuano 29%
    Khazei 16%
    Pagliuca 14%

    <

    p>turnout 20%

    <

    p>Coakley will capture those women who place a priority (not saying the only priority) on having a female senator. She will also be helped by name recognition and her established state-wide organization. Capuano will capture those who put a priority on knowing what they are getting based on past performance in a similar office. Khazei will capture those who like his outsider status and his advocacy of unconventional approaches. Pagliuca will capture those who liked his ads; many of these voters will be unaware of Pag’s past support of Republicans. A significant number of voters will be undecided until the very last minute – not a good sign for Coakley, but probably not enough to change the outcome.

    <

    p>Turnout will be low, due to the timing between the holidays, a short election cycle, and “political fatigue” after last year’s presidential election.

    <

    p>I hope I’m wrong.

    • I worked out the preceding numbers late last night, here are my numbers that add up:

      <

      p>Coakley 34%
      Capuano 33%
      Khazei 18%
      Pagliuca 15%

      <

      p>turnout 20%

      <

      p>Same narrative, repeated from original, applies:

      <

      p>Coakley will capture those women who place a priority (not saying the only priority) on having a female senator. She will also be helped by name recognition and her established state-wide organization. Capuano will capture those who put a priority on knowing what they are getting based on past performance in a similar office. Khazei will capture those who like his outsider status and his advocacy of unconventional approaches. Pagliuca will capture those who liked his ads; many of these voters will be unaware of Pag’s past support of Republicans. A significant number of voters will be undecided until the very last minute – not a good sign for Coakley, but probably not enough to change the outcome.

      <

      p>Turnout will be low, due to the timing between the holidays, a short election cycle, and “political fatigue” after last year’s presidential election.

      <

      p>I hope I’m wrong.

      <

      p>What MA Republican party? I should read their blogs once in a while, painful as it may be.

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