Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Predictions 2011

By

World:

1. Portugal is bailed out by the IMF/EU, but Spain and Italy survive.

2. Kim Jong Il survives the year, but increasing reports and evidence indicate that the real power in the country is not him or his son, but Jang Song-taek.

3. Countries who change leaders in 2011: Japan, Australia, and Ireland.

4. The developed West avoids another dangerous terrorist attack (India doesn’t), and worries emerge of links between Islamic radical terrorists and Latin America drug cartels.  The president of Mexico is assassinated.

5. Tensions over Chinese currency policy heat up, and Japan officially moves toward increasing its military budget above the traditional 1% of GDP.  Rumors emerge of South Korean research in nuclear weapons technology.

Business and Entertainment:

1. The Patriots win the Super Bowl over the Falcons.  Tom Brady wins season MVP.

2. The Celtics lose the Easter Conference finals; of O’Neal, Garnett, and Allen, at least one of them is injured at the time.

3. Spiderman, Turn Off the Dark, does not open on Broadway.  Losses are enormous.

4. Oprah Winfrey quietly confirms an interest in a major film role.

5. A small fine is assessed to Bank of America for foreclosure policy; nothing changes.

Crazy but possible:

1. NBC announces that Saturday Night Live is on its last year on the network.

2. Jeb Bush edges toward running for president, but backs off when no interest is shown.

3. A small group of Texans, led by several former state legislators “secedes” from the union.  Some polls show support in the state above 12%

4. Hillary Clinton is caught on tape at a private function saying extremely disparaging things about Barack Obama’s political instincts.

5. The filibuster is reformed.

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Comments

  1. US
    1. No. She runs.
    2. No challenger, certainly not Kucinich. If anyone, someone far more obscure.
    3-5. Hope not.
    And I’ll add:
    – Consensus GOP emerges who is neither Palin nor Huckabee. Maybe Pawlenty, but at this point I’d be surprised. Dark horse: Santorum.

    <

    p>World
    Kim Jong Il dies. I agree that succession could be messy.

    <

    p>Business and Entertainment
    1. If they get there, they win.
    2. Anything is gravy with this team, they are old. I decline to predict.
    3. It will open. But it won’t do well.
    4-5. Probably already happened.

    <

    p>And I’ll add:
    – Reality TV backlash accelerates. The trend might (finally) slow down.

    <

    p>Crazy but Possible
    1. No effing way. SNL is forever. As a friend of mine once observed, if you’re home at the hour and you’re awake, what are you going to watch?
    2. Possibly — but only to plant seeds for 2016. Bushes run for open seats.
    3-4. Hope not. Really doubt #4; if it happens I’ll be among those who think it’s staged.
    5. No. Not the way I think you mean it, anyway.

    <

    p>And I’ll add:
    – An active professional athlete gay marries.

    <

    p>

  2. Record heat in the summer will take hundreds of lives in the Midwest.

    <

    p>Gold tops $2.5K an ounce in late September while gas prices in the United States will push $5 a gallon after Labor Day.

    <

    p>Continued inflation stalls the economic recovery and unemployment numbers mount. That major earthquake in California just before Halloween does not help matters much either.

    <

    p>The Red Sox will continue to suck, unfortunately.

    <

    p>And please God, let them end the fiasco that Saturday Night Live has become. It hasn’t been funny for years.

  3. US #3 – I think AZ will be upheld, but agree with all the others.

    <

    p>World – all seem likely.

    <

    p>Biz – ditto, all on target.

    <

    p>Crazy #3 – I think a declaration of some kind, but not secession.  BTW – keep an eye on New Hampshire too.

    <

    p>This appeared in my local paper

  4. the Main St economy will continue to stuggle along, while Wall Street and large global corporations will continue to do well.  Prices will go up on gas, food, clothing and other basic necessities. Profits will soar.

    <

    p>Even if there is a primary against Obama, he will win the nomination.  The base will be there for him, so say the polls.

    <

    p>Mike Huckabee will win the Repbublican nomination and will beat Barack Obama by a slim margin.  

    <

    p>Poll

    <

    p>Poll

    <

    p>Mike Huckabee will immediately get his talking to by whoever is really running the government and he will continue with the Bush-Obama strategy for a prosperous America.

    <

    p>Our amazing capitalist society, the greatest one ever in the world according to the top 2%, will continue to marginalize and pulvarize the working middle class.  The elite ruling society will be less concerned about public displays of unfairness and will be applauded as they continue to cut jobs and lower wages in order to dispense the very popular dividend.  There will be outrage that dividends are taxed at 15%; this will be blamed for the unemployment problem and new legistlation will be voted in to lower the tax rate for investors.  

    <

    p>According to the government and Wall Street, America is great and we are on our way to recovery.  Just as we have been on our way to recovery for the last two years, we will be on our way to recovery for the next ten.  

  5. (I don’t know enough about the others to intelligently comment.)

    <

    p>Palin does not run as she prefers celebrity.  Her endorsement will be sought after, but no guarantee to the nomination.  GOP picks Romney falling back on the whose turn it is criterion, plus polls showing he does best against Obama.  Romney shores up religious right credentials by tapping Huckabee, who is also close second to Romney in matchups against Obama, as VP.  Kucinich has already said he’s not running and I doubt Obama will get a credible primary.  Obama narrowly wins re-election.

    <

    p>Health care reform is upheld by SCOTUS, but AZ SB 1070 is not.

  6. US:
    1. Sarah Palin runs because “no one else stood up” despite a dozen other contenders.  John Thune wins the nomination.  
    2. No one challenges Obama, but progressive money flows through SuperPACs to House races, including many challenges against conservative Dems.
    3. The health care bill works its way up to the Supreme Court, where it will eventually be found CONstitutional by a 5-4 vote.  The Arizona immigration law will also be found unconstitutional, by a 5-4 vote.
    4. Julian Assange is not indicted by the United States government.
    5. California needs a bailout.
    6. Chris Christie’s star fizzles.  

    <

    p>World:
    2. Kim Jong Il is already dead.  
    4. Mexico becomes fully a Narcostate and the US reaction is to increase Drug War activities.  

    <

    p>Business and Entertainment:
    1. The Patriots win the Super Bowl over the Falcons.  Tom Brady wins season MVP. Agree.  
    5. BofA comes to one of the largest settlements in history with state Attorneys General.  Public opinion drives active AGs after Wikileaks releases BofA emails (related: almost all commentators take back everything they said about Wikileaks after the emails are released). Housing prices continue drop, unemployment remains high.  

    <

    p>MA:
    1. Mike Capuano will be a US Senator by year’s end after winning a special election; Kerry gets a cabinet post.  Lynch and Markey’s districts absorb most of Capuano’s – Lynch has another primary challenge.  
    2. More news comes out about Governor Patrick’s involvement in the UMass President search – none of it good.  The new UMass President is an unknown and no one is happy.  
    3. We’ll get more food trucks in Boston and Cambridge – but most permitting laws, especially for liquor, will remain unchanged.  

    1.  The Ninth Circuit is upheld in Camreta v. Greene, leading to nationwide changes in child welfare practice due to increased due process protections; for background see The Ninth Circuit Decision which states that children also have due process protections under the 4th and 14th Amendment and what those protections require, and lays out what is required to preserve qualified immunity; the case was granted Certiorari and the last Amicus briefs are being wrapped up as I type.

    <

    p>2.  Major flooding changes the course of the Missippi River with major economic impact in the midwest.

    <

    p>3.  Ford motor company expands its share of the US auto market and begins buying vacant land in Detroit.

    <

    p>4.  Redistricting in Massachusetts leads to nasty legistlative infighting, and Deval Patrick brokers a compromise creating a nonpartisan Redistricting Commission.

    <

    p>5.  After a coup in Afghanistan, a new government forces US withdrawal.

  8. MA

    <

    p>1. Federal corruption indictments of former senior managers of the Probation Department, including Commissioner John O’Brien and Legal Counsel, Christopher Bulger will be brought by the United States Attorney for Massachusetts, Carmen Ortiz.

    <

    p>2. The Legislature relents and agrees to place the Probation Department under the supervision of the Executive Office of Public Safety.

    <

    p>3. Continued revelations about his ineffectiveness to stem the rampant fraud and excessive patronage in the Probation Department force the resignation of Judge Robert Mulligan as Chief Justice for Administration and Management of the Massachusetts Trial Court.

    <

    p>4. Former Massachusetts House Speaker Sal DiMasi will be convicted of political corruption charges in connection with his role in the Cognos state contracting scandal and will receive a lengthy prison sentence.

    <

    p>5. Governor Patrick will demand that the Legislature enact civil service, open public records, state contracting, and other ethics reforms to prevent another Probation Department scandal from occurring, and the Legislature will successfully block all of these proposed reforms from being enacted, with the single exception being the reorganization of the Probation Department.

    <

    p>5. Under the leadership of Governor Patrick and his environmental and energy departments, Massachusetts will become the leading state in the nation in persuading small and medium-size businesses to utilize solar energy technology and an expanding solar electricity grid to reduce businesses’ dependence on fossil fuels.

    <

    p>6. After redistricting by the Legislature carves up the 4th Congressional District, Congressman Barney Frank calls it a political career and announces he will not run for re-election to Congress in 2012.

    <

    p>7. A major political scandal will emerge in Massachusetts concerning the “pay-for-play” awarding of corporate legal work and financial underwriting contracts involving  Massachusetts government bonds that finance several hundred millions of dollars of public transportation, public  education, public construction, and public housing projects. Several major downtown Boston law firms, prominent current and former state legislators, senior managers of executive departments and agencies, and national investment banks with Boston offices will be implicated in this burgeoning scandal.

    <

    p>8. Inspector General Gregory Sullivan will resign in protest, after political efforts to increase the power, authority, and human resources of the Office of Inspector General fail to win approval in the legislature.

    <

    p>9. Attorney General Martha Coakley will NOT indict anyone in the Probation Department scandal, preferring to leave the criminal prosecution of senior and middle-level managers of the Department to the U.S. Attorney’s Office.

    <

    p>10. The Massachusetts GOP will continue to be an irrelevant political entity on Beacon Hill.

    <

    p>11. Senator Scott Brown’s pick-up truck will be totaled in automobile accident that leaves all parties thankfully uninjured; Sen. Brown buys a replacement pick-up truck from Ernie Boch, Jr. at a suspiciously below market price.

    <

    p>  

  9. Small quibble – no way Falcons make SB.  They’re the 22nd most efficient team.

    <

    p>I’m just glad to see lack of “Iran tests nuke” in your headlines…..

  10. the Mexican president gets assassinated? I’d take that in the “crazy but possible” category, but I’d take that amongst a lot of world leaders at the moment. Extremism is on the rise, which sort of goes hand in hand with a bad economy.  

    • The inter-cartel violence isn’t because there’s suddenly more drugs flowing through Mexico, but rather because there’s suddenly less predictability about who gets to control what territories.  There is a widespread suspicion that the Mexican law-and-order officials are increasingly engaging in asymmetrical prosecution in the hopes of ending these disputes and lowering rates of violence.  Whenever you have government linking with organized crime in confrontation with other organized crime syndicates, the safety of all officials becomes suspect.

  11. Wikileaks and other cyberwar false flags and Comcrass conglomerate interests create the I-Patriot Act making the internet nothing more than a lamestream AOL shopping mall.

    <

    p>Gulf damage becomes too evident to be ignored and containted.

    <

    p>More riots in the EU as governments push more austerity.

    <

    p>Purelle markets a post TSA pat down sanitizing gel.

    <

    p>More local currencies like the Berkshare appear.

    <

    p>Survivalrealty.com sees renewed interest and growth.

    <

    p>Little interest in who gets to be CEO of “America” in 2012.

  12. US…

    <

    p>- Dow hits 13,000
    – Bond Market starts going south and US finally responds with massive spending cuts.
    – Weather patterns continue to go up and down… as it has few millions of years.
    – Obamacare overturned by 5-4.
    – Arizona law upheld by 5-4 and most States adopt similar laws (even whacky MA).
    – Pats vs Falcons in SuperBowl.
    – Palin not running.
    – US continues swing right in ideology.
    – Inflation jumps, interest rates spike, tax reform moves forward but very bitter fighting.

    <

    p>World…

    <

    p>- Iran continues to develop Nuclear capabilities and ignores world pressure.
    – No change in Afghanistan situation other than American tiring of US Military losses and costs.
    – State budgets (of tone-deaf states) continue to be staggered by pensions costs causing reforms.
    – A few more world catastrophes (volcanoes, earthquakes, floods…) in developing nations which make the second page of our news.
    – South and North Korea start fighting on a limited basis.
    – FDA approves drugs to battle major cancers (epigenetics trends up).
    – Current Human evolution chronology is found to be flawed.

  13. Agree that Mr. DiMasi will again take on role as Speaker…of the BIG House

    <

    p>Rumors begin circulating that Charlie Baker plans to give Sen. Kerry a run for his money

    <

    p>China will wise up, and take North Korea out behind the shed

    <

    p>Ex Gov. Palin will suffer an unforgivable public humiliation and becomes a pariah, even among her devotees

    <

    p>Romney runs, but an under-the-radar RINO emerges by Christmas and turns the race upside down

    <

    p>Not that this necessarily has anything to do with the previous statement, but I suspect we have not heard the last of Colin Powell

    <

    p>Disagree on gold – silver will be THE sought after metal in 2011  

    <

    p>Sorry, but Ravens will be upset Superbowl winners…

    <

    p>A highly effective treatment for cancer will be unveiled

    <

    p>Taking the good with the not so good, may we all see a more prosperous, cooperative New Year, economically and politically…

    <

    p>  

  14. US
    1. No major front runner by the end of 2011.  Palin runs but does not poll well and drops out, endorsing Huckabee.
    2. Eventual nominee is probably Huckabee, or maybe Romney if he runs a good campaign.
    3. Congress passes unpopular immigration reform, which Obama vetos, to his great popularity.  Otherwise does nothing.  At all.
    4. (pick one: Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton) is impeached for something bogus, but the Senate does not even conduct hearings.  Obama dumps Biden in favor of someone who appeals to progressive base.
    5. Obama polling fairly well against whoever, in the 55-60 range.
    6. Senate passes a constitutional amendment that limits electioneering by unions and corporations, but it does not advance out of committee in the house.  Filibuster reform is also included in this amendment.
    7. Record-high tuition rates.

    <

    p>Mass
    1. Scott Brown runs for reelection with at least 5 billion dollars from the Wall Street.  (counter him NOW: http://beatbrown.us)
    2. There is a 4-way primary between medieocre Democratic candidates.  Included are Mike Capuano, Alan Khazei, Stephen Lynch, and outsiders Susan Fargo (State Senator) and Jarrett Barrios (former State Rep/State Senator and president of GLAAD).
    3. By the end of the year, Brown polls well, similar #s to Obama.  He votes very moderately and appeals greatly to Independents.  He has a tea party challenge that does not do well.
    4. Triple crown: Pats, Sox, and Celts all champions.  Even the Bruins do pretty well, make it to conference semifinal.  Even the Revolution makes the playoffs.
    5. Deval Patrick approval rating= 75%
    6. New leadership on Beacon Hill for Dems.

    <

    p>International:
    1. Tottenham Hotspurs win the UEFA Champions League and English Premier League to everyone’s shock.
    2. Kim Jong Il becomes very sick, announces that he has a nuclear bomb, and days later dies.
    3. Major terrorist attack on a US/Euro port or major political institution, either New York, Chicago, Boston, or DC.

    <

    p>Economy/Business
    1. Economy starts to really move.
    2. Job numbers get a whole lot better, this makes Obama popular.

  15. Politics

    <

    p>Local

    <

    p>-Scott Harshbarger makes political comeback running for Sheriff
    Capuano runs full time for Senate, first to announce, early frontrunner for most of the race, frees up MA08
    MA08 race includes Khazei, Chang-Diaz, Sciortino, Curatone, and Michael A. Sullivan on D side, RMGs Garrett Quinn runs as a Quixotic libertarian-conservative on the R side
    -Murray also enters Senate race along with Nikki Tsongas  and Jamie Eldridge as a darkhorse

    <

    p>GOP 2012

    <

    p>In

    <

    p>Romney, Barbour, Daniels, Thune, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Pataki, Ridge, Ron Paul, Mike Pence, Mama Grizzly, and Stephen Colbert in NH and SC as a lark

    <

    p>Out

    <

    p>Guiliani, DeWitt, McConnell, Boehner, Cantor, Rice, Jeb Bush, and Huckabee

    <

    p>Out after IA

    <

    p>Barbour, Thune, Pawlenty, Pataki, and Pence

    <

    p> Out after NH

    <

    p>Gingrich, Daniels, Ridge who all endorse Romney

    <

    p> After SC

    <

    p>Romney and Mama Grizzly duke it out over SC, due to her high profile endorsement of popular Gov Nikki Haley, Palin decisively takes SC. Establishment is now terrified and tries to rally behind Romney, even Huckabee endorses his hated former rival to try to bolster evangelical support during Super Tuesday but he can’t overcome her popularity. Palin, to appease the establishment and bolster national security credentials picks Ridge who quickly retreats from former pro-choice stance by claiming he supports states rights on the question and merely supported the will of his state, a good tea party spin to his flip flop.

    <

    p> Dem 2012

    <

    p>-Nader runs in NH against Obama, attracts minimal support
    Jon Stewart does not run in spite of semiserious draft effort

    <

    p> Bloomberg?

    <

    p>He hedges his bets the entire year in 2011 and most of 2012, after Palin wins SC he makes tentative plans to announce, picked to replace Geihtner after his resignation.

    <

    p>Misc

    <

    p>-After Gates retires Sen. Reed and Sen. Lugar become top picks to replace him, Obama goes with his mind instead of his heart and taps Lugar who is facing serious tea party challenge, Reed gets Sec. Navy as a consolation prize, Cicilline runs to replace him becomes first openly gay Senator in a close race against former Gov. Carcieri

    <

    p>-Lieberman retires, Jodi Rell is Republican nominee who is endorsed by Lieberman, she faces tough race against Rep. Chris Murphy who narrowly wins primary against Ned Lamont. Ted Kennedy Jr. flirts with the race but ultimately declines.

    <

    p>SCOTUS declares arizona law uncon, healthcare law con, both times due to Just. Kennedy’s whimsy, SCOTUS hears challenge to Nebraska ban on abortions after 20 weeks since conception, upholds it 54 due to Kennedy, several states follow suit in passing similar legislation, SCOTUS hears Prop 8 challenge and narrowly votes Prop 8 down in vague decision written by Kennedy, allowing CA’s courts to allow gay marriage but limiting the ruling to that state

    <

    p>-Lindsey Graham, Aaron Shock, Dave Dreier, and Charlie Crist all irrefutably outed

    <

    p>-Brett Favre finally retires for good

    <

    p>Pats win Superbowl 3217 over Falcons, who beat Eagles in legendary ‘Bird Bowl’ NFC Championship game

    <

    p>Celtics win Eastern Conference against Miami Heat, Lakers lose to Mavs in West, Celtics beat Mavs 43 in finals

    <

    p>Sox beats Yanks for ALCS, Phillys beat Giants for NLCS, Phillys beat Sox 43 at Fenway, heartbreaking but legendary series

    <

    p>-Bruins beat Canadiens and eventually win Stanley Cup

    • Looks like you already got the Favre one right.  You don’t think Biden appeals to the progressive base?

      <

      p>I can’t stand that auto-formatting that does a strikethrough for strings of text framed by hyphens.

      <

      p>As for Supreme Court decisions, at this point I expect that the Supreme Court will uphold the Republican platform 5-4.  I no longer presume that their decisions are based on law, given the last 10 years.  It’s simply a third political branch.

    • The district would have to change a bit for Sciortino to run.  He lives in the 7th.  Also, I’m not sure he’d run if one of his higher profile progressive colleagues enters the race.  

      <

      p>I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ayanna Pressley run (but probably not if Chang-Diaz runs).  

      • All of Somerville is in the 8th and he is a Somerville resident last I checked, at least his office is on the North Cambridge/Somerville line.

        <

        p>As to Mr. Sabutai I too hate the strikethrough’s and will affirm it was unintentional and I stand by all my predictions, even the loonier ones. I see no reason why Biden is anathema to the progressive base considering he is the only voice of reason on Iraq and Afghan policy, not to mention he pushed hard for the public option and allegedly opposed the tax compromise. While a centrist Senator for sure, and to the right of Sen. Obama, VP Biden definitely seems to be to the left of his President, an interesting development. Also with this crowd no VP short of a Dean or Grayson would suffice, and would cause the death of the party.  

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