WSJ reporter Deborah Solomon speculates that Republicans may have difficulty holding on to some statehouses next year. Willard, she notes, has given his party a particularly uphill task in Massachusetts. So much for the conservative establishment’s confidence in Healey.
“By forgoing a re-election bid next year, the Republican dubbed ‘Matinee Mitt’ is free to seek his party’s 2008 presidential nomination. Winning a second term as Massachusetts governor might have been just as hard,” Solomon writes.
“Despite his good looks and cachet from leading a liberal “blue state,” Gov. Mitt Romney trailed two potential Democratic opponents in the polls before announcing Dec. 14 that he won’t run in 2006. His home-state plight underscores the challenge Republicans face next year in retaining governorships they have held for a decade,” Solomon adds.
I’m praying for a retake of the Governorship in Georgia (my birth state). The current gov, Perdue, only beat the incumbent Barnes 4 years ago because Roy Barnes decided to take the confederate battle flag off the state flag without first asking the citizens of the state. Perdue is the first republican governor of GA since reconstruction and from everything I’ve heard he’s left a pretty meager impression in his first term. I know of at least one solid dem challenger so I’d like to think that we have a really good chance there.
His approval/disapproval: 60%/33%
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So… good luck with that one. 🙁
Outside of GA, I think MA and CA are strong chances to take the corner office. AL, FL, and AK aren’t likely to happen. The other states I don’t know enough to hazard any guesses. But that’s still a net gain of 3.
I agree that CA, MA, and NY will go Democrat.
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Also agreed that FL, Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama will stay red.
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Watch WI. There is an anti-gay referendum vote happening at the same time. That could hurt Governor Doyle’s chances at re-election which truly is a 50/50 state. Kerry won it by .3% and Gore won it by .1%.
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Michigan will stay blue and Minnesota will stay red. Granholm in Michigan is a great politician. The Dems in Minnesota can’t agree on a candidate, and so it’ll probably be an ugly primary. The “winner” of that primary will come out pretty wounded against Republican incumbent Pawlenty.
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I think MD could flip and go blue. It is a blue state generally. If Townsend Kennedy hadn’t run such a horrible campaign in ’02, Ehrlich never would have been governor in the first place.
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I don’t know anything about OH, Alaska, Rhode Island, Nevada or Colorado… anyone out there with info?
Gore and Kerry won by such slim margins because they were not strong enough. My experience after living in WI for 22 years was that we like our pols to have ideas and positions. Kerry and Gore lacked vision and gumption. Thompson was terrible governor but he held that office for 16 years because he was a leader. Luckily is foil for the last several years of his gubernatorial stay was Doyle whose electoral percentage was nearly identical as Thompson’s.
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I always thought it was funny that we would elect arch-Republican Tommy with 67% of the vote then ON THE SAME BALLOT election solidly Dem Doyle with 65%. Those people in WI are crazy. That is why I came here to the much saner electoral politics of MA (do I even need to note the heavy sarcasm that that comment needs to be read with?).
Rhode Island is a mess, it should go blue, but I haven’t been following the race too well. If Matt Brown, the 35 yr old sec of state running for dem nominee to senate, was smart he’d ditch the senate race (its going to be a battle between him and former ag whitehouse) and go for that. That being said, it should be a big blue year in the state where I went to college, as Chafee, if he wins his primary, will definitely lose the general.
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Colorado is trending Democratic. With the election of the Salazaar brothers to the House and Senate, and the defeat of TABOR (Taxpayers Bill of Rights – basically forces a vote before any non inflation increase in state spending, imagine prop 2.5 but 100% worse), it could flip, although I’m not sure of the candidates out there (Rep. Udall, I know, backed out and has announced he’ll run in 2008 for the Senate seat currently occupied by Wayne Allard).
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MD should go blue. Tough Senate race going on there, but Mayor Martin O’Malley (Baltimore) should be able to defeat the former Mongtomery Count Executive (can’t remember his name) in the primary and beat Ehrlich (especially since Ehlrich has fallen right into the corruption message of the coordinated campaign).
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Finally, Ohio. Gorund Zero again. If dems are going to win on any level in 2006 it has to be in Ohio. Governor Taft has horrible approval ratings, Rep, Strickland is the nominee against him. Not a lot of name recognition, but he should be able to take it (more interesting is the senate seat where there’s a dog fight between Paul Hackett and Rep. Sherrod Brown to see who’ll face sitting Senator Mike DeWine).
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Is it November yet?
The only Dem in the race right now, Bill Ritter, is already polling above the two GOoPs in the race. Add to that, Colorado has the closets House race in the entire country in CO-7, where the GOP incumbent is not running for re-election, running for Gov. instead. Also, in 2004, the State Democrats amazing swept control of both the state House and Senate for the first time in 42 years. 2005 saw the passage of Referendum C, a bipartisan solution supported by current GOoP Gov. Bill Owens and Democrats which was a blow to our TABOR rules, and a shot across the bow to the Norquist types. It’s split the fundies/anti-gov’ts and moderates right down the middle.
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It’s a fun thing to watch.
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For all the skinny, check out SoapBlox Colorado.
Ex-MA governor Weld v.s very popular Dem AG Spitzer. I don’t think Spitzer will have any problem with Weld.
Anyone see the Editorial in the Times?
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http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/28/opinion/28wed2.html
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They went after him pretty hard on pulling out of the regional plan to reduce emissions. Good to know we aren’t the only ones who recognize a politician more interested in posturing for his national ambitions than actually helping the state he was elected to govern.