Today we read that the GOP is begging Christy Mihos to run for Governor as a Republican rather than as an independent, and is promising him the 15% of delegates he’ll need at the party convention to get on the primary ballot.
Wow. They are clearly terrified. Which makes sense – there would be nothing worse for Republicans than Kerry Healey cruising to the nomination uncontested (and therefore not on the public’s radar screen), only to face a barrage of negative ads from the fabulously wealthy Mihos in the general election. The GOP must be calculating that Mihos is likely to drain more Republican votes from Healey than Democratic votes from Reilly or Patrick, thereby handing the Governor’s office to whichever Democrat wins the nomination. And that seems about right to me. They’re also betting that in a Republican primary – limited to voters who choose to self-identify as Republican – party loyalty will help Healey to victory, since she’ll undoubtedly have all of the party establishment behind her.
Won’t it be interesting to see what Christy decides to do?
but if I were, I would put really long odds on Christy running as a Republican.
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It’s quite amazing. We could be seeing the near-complete dissolution of the MA Republican Party if we have a three-way race, which seems likely.
I agree Charlie — why not run as an indie? Avoid the bruising primary (obviously the healey people are scared so they’ll be sure to hit hart) and wait until the general when you get hammer the traditional candidates. I’d love to see an independent candidate run and see how the electorate responds. I’m not sure he’s the right indie candidate to go the way of Gov King in Maine but to be sure it’ll shake up both the Dem and Rep establishments. But, you’re right it’ll strike a blow to the R’s much more than the D’s.
Given that the Democrats are also a minority party in terms of enrollment (roughly 35%), they should be freaked too.
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In my experience, people who are unenrolled in a party refer to themselves as “independent”. So an “independent” candidate is likely to resonate with many voters. Mihos is also pro-choice, and supports marriage equality (“it’s not going to hurt my marriage”). Big Dig whistle blower, not a politician style, mabye not as wealthy as Healy, but won’t have trouble financing a campaign…
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I’m generally not a fan of Brian McGrory, but here:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2005/09/02/a_new_face_in_the_crowd/
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Yes, I think the Democrats have about as much to be worried about as the Republicans.
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But in a three-way race, 35% plus a couple of Democratic leaning independents may be enough to win the race. Mihos as an independent may hurt the Dems, but he hurts the Republicans much more. If he runs as an independent, then Kerry Healey has a real chance of coming in third.
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I generally think that Mihos would be a more formidable candidate than Healey, but I think that he will siphon more votes from the GOP ticket than the Democratic ticket.
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Think of it this way, if Mihos runs as a Republican and wins the primary, that is a worse situation, in my opinion, for the state Democrats than if he runs as an independent, if only because the threshold for victory will be higher. If it is worse that he run as a Republican, it is therefore better for the Democrats that he run as an independent, even if he still has a chance to beat the Dems in a three-way race.
I agree partly: Mihos is definitely more of a threat to the Democrats as the Republican nominee than as an independent. However, I also think it very unlikely that he could get the Republican nomination. If that’s true, then the choice is between running against Healy (if Mihos runs as a Republican), or against two (Healy and Mihos). But that brings me back into agreement with you, because I think the 3-way race is better ground for the Democrats.
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Though if we do get a 3 way race, I’ll be really pissed off yet again that we don’t have IRV!
Tom Reilly a centrist candidate will split the independent vote with Mihos.
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Projected election day results with Mihos as independent:
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Reilly 51%
Mihos 26%
Healey 23%