Not necessarily. Nobody expects Patrick to win the party endorsement at the convention. Nobody expects either candidate to fail to get 15%. Recent events probably haven’t affected the delegate slates much, since they were mostly organized in December and early January. So, most likely, the caucuses will elect enough delegates for both candidates to get 15%, and a majority for Reilly, or at least that’s what it’ll look like, and nobody will be too shocked.
<
p>
Now, at the convention itself, if Deval Patrick even comes close to winning the party endorsement, that will be a big thing. And it may be a possibility, but even if it is going to happen, we may not know it until the convention. I don’t think anyone compiles a full tally of caucus results by candidate – especially with all those unity slates many committees run, that mix delegates supporting multiple candidates on the same slate.
It doesn’t mean anything in a legal or technical sense, but it’s politics, and it has political meaning. If Reilly wins the convention endorsement this year, it probably won’t mean anything, because he’s supposed to be the party establishment’s candidate. If Deval Patrick wins it, which now looks like a good possibility, it will mean something.
Those numbers aren’t that bad for Deval. They reflect the simple fact that 78% of the commonwealth doesn’t know whether Patrick is his first or last name. While I believe he needs a more agressive strategy, if the S.S. Reilly keeps taking on water and the public becomes more familiar with him, he’ll be in great shape heading into the convention.
<
p>
Put 10 undecided voters in the same room with Patrick and Reilly, and 9 come out Patrick supporters. I have no doubt in my mind.
rexsays
That could be true, and if so that is ok for DP. However he has been running for half a year and still 78% of the people don’t know who he is?
<
p>
That means he needs to spend big money to get name ID. Something he doesn’t have.
It’s been obvious from the start that Patrick was going to need to spend a lot of money to get his name out. If that’s all you’re getting from this poll, why do you even need a poll? Most Massachusetts voters haven’t paid any attention to the 2006 governor election yet, and have no idea who’s running, let alone know much about who’s running. The contest right now is to build an organization that can campaign for voters later, while at the same time competing for activists now. A poll of voters, now, is pointless. If there were a poll of activists now, it would tell you something.
<
p>
And in a sense, the caucuses happening all day today are a “poll of activists”. So let’s see what they tell us, when it’s all done.
We now have a list of undecideds from when we did our organizing for Deval caucuses. We will now use that list to turn out Dems for events in our area which will in turn help him get votes, raise money, and win. We have no qualms that Deval WON’T appeal to just about everyone he meets – he’s that good.
<
p>
Trust me, the grassroots isn’t done surprising everyone yet. We’ll be keepin’ on keepin’ on.
dgadamssays
I just got back from the Medford caucuses. It looks like some wards were swept by Patrick, others by Reilly. In my ward, the Reilly folks swept the Patrick folks, with each election being within 3 – 8 votes.
<
p>
I have a basic question. Should the two male delegates have been elected in a single vote or in a separate vote, and should the female candidates have been elected together or in separate elections? We did separate elections, guaranteeing that the Reilly folks (which in my ward included the Party machinery and Reilly’s daughter and son-in-law) got to win every seat. If the Patrick people had gotten a couple more allies on board, the votes would have all gone the other way.
The usual process is for all the male delegates to be elected on one vote (if there are 3 slots, for example, then everyone votes for 3 names), all the female delegates elected on one vote, and then alternates again one vote for male and one vote for female. Of course that means you could have up to six votes: male, female, either (if you have an odd number, one slot is either gender), and the same for alternates if you have an odd number of alternates.
<
p>
But that doesn’t matter if people stick to their slate discipline. If you have two competing slates, and each one has a block of voters committed to voting for their slate, the larger block will win every election and sweep the ward.
dgadamssays
Thanks.
<
p>
I see what you mean about slates. Part of the dynamic at our caucus was that the ward chair was bullying the lead Patrick people and accusing them of “running a slate” which he said was expressly against the rules. Yet there was clearly an orchestrated effort to get a handful of the party people reading from their notes to nominate the Reilly delegates.
dgadamssays
Sorry, I thought I posted this in the caucus open thread. I didn’t mean to put this discussion here.
If what you describe is accurate, it sounds like it’s against the official rules!
<
p>
Per “Method of Selecting Delegates to the 2006 Massachusetts Democratic State Convention” (p. 25, Secton 14):
<
p>
“If the number of Delegates to be elected by a caucus is even, there will be two elections, one for women and one for men. If the number of Delegates to be elected to the caucus is odd (and greater than one), there will be three elections, one for women and one for men, and one open to both women and men for the one (1) odd seat. In the three-election situation, the one open to both women and men shall be held last and those defeated in the first two elections may be re-nominated.”
<
p>
Now, unless the “separate” votes you describe were actually the “men’s” and “odd’s” elections — which is entirely possible — it sounds like there was some interesting procedural finagling that might not be entirely on the up-and-up.
<
p>
Again, I guess we’d need to have all the details on this one….
p>
It looks like each Medford ward will also elect 2 alternates in addition to the 5 or 6 regular delegates (depending on the ward).
<
p>
So, if you include the ward chair (automatic delegate) you would either be electing 4 or 5 delegates, plus 2 alternates. Of the regular delegates 2 should be male (elected in one vote) and 2 should be female (elected in one vote). There would be a separate “male/female” vote to fill the 5th slot.
<
p>
Then, you should have separate votes for the 2 alternate seats: one female and one male (as I understand it).
dgadamssays
We had 6 votes:
<
p>
1) for Female #1
2) for Female #2
3) for Male #1
4) for Male #2
5) for either gender / 5th delegate
6) alternates — we handed in two slips of paper at the same time, one for a male and one for a female.
<
p>
That does break the rules from everything I can see. I don’t know if I have broken any laws, but I recorded some of this on my digital camera (which has a video mode).
p>
But it wasn’t just Bill. I think all the Medford wards used the “one candidate at a time” approach.
northshoredemsays
Your local coordinator should have an emergency contact number for caucus-day operations. The campaign attorneys should be able to determine whether this should be challenged.
Vis-a-vis the North Andover caucus, but also appropriate here, I think:
——————————————————-
Challenge the caucus. (0.00 / 0)
I’m a Chair of a Town Committee and we followed the process to the letter. I expected some folks to show up–actually on the Reilly side–to mess with our caucus, so I was sure to do everything by the book.
Based on your description, it does not appear that they followed the method as outlined in the Call at all.
<
p>
You have every right to challenge. Rule #35 in the Call to Convention explains what to do:
<
p>
Challenges to the conduct of caucus and or the election of Delegates and Alternates shall be filed separately for each Ward and Town with the Compliance Review Committee by a registered Democrat, residing within the ward or town, and having direct knowledge of the grounds for the challenge. Said challenge shall be postmarked no later than ten days after the caucus. Specific grounds must be addressed in an initial challenge. The Chairperson of the Compliance Review Committee will review the challenges, and shall determine if a hearing is necessary, and shall present all information pertinent to his decision to the full committee, all subject to further review by the full committee if requested by the challenger or otherwise. Information concerning challenges will be available from the Democratic State Committee, 56 Roland Street, Suite 203, Boston, MA 02129, (617)776-2676.
<
p>
by: lightiris @ February 05, 2006 at 09:51:13 EST
I post a comment like this almost every month on either dkos or mydd, when some front page post touts early polls of some hot Senate or House races somewhere around the country. Polls right now can tell you some useful things, but they cannot give you information that is even slightly useful in the “who’s ahead” category. All they can do on that front in titillate you with meaningless numbers and mislead you if you think you know what they mean.
politicalfeministasays
I’ve learned over the years that polls aren’t determinant of who will win an election. And as another blogger pointed out the State House Poll was taken before the whole Reilly/Gabrielli/St. Fleur fiasco. Coming from collecting signatures for a few candidates at a couple caucuses today and hearing about a few others; there were alot of Deval Patrick slates and not many Reilly slates.
<
p>
Looks like the Patrick campaign has got the caucuses covered well.
worcesterdemsays
If Reilly was indeed 30 points ahead…I doubt you would have seen him selecting St. Fleur. His internal numbers must have shown something different…
<
p>
It’s DEVAL PATRICK time and we all know it.
<
p>
I am hearing Reilly’s daughter couldn’t even make it as a delegate to the convention in her/his own hometown of Watertown.
<
p>
Furthermore, why did he even have his daughter run as a delegate…if she loses, you’re a loser plus it exposes you again when she votes for LG…Reilly is just dumb.
other posts on this subject note that the poll was taken before recent events and, of course, many months before the primary
I think the real test will be today during the caucuses. I just find this all so unbelievable!
Not necessarily. Nobody expects Patrick to win the party endorsement at the convention. Nobody expects either candidate to fail to get 15%. Recent events probably haven’t affected the delegate slates much, since they were mostly organized in December and early January. So, most likely, the caucuses will elect enough delegates for both candidates to get 15%, and a majority for Reilly, or at least that’s what it’ll look like, and nobody will be too shocked.
<
p>
Now, at the convention itself, if Deval Patrick even comes close to winning the party endorsement, that will be a big thing. And it may be a possibility, but even if it is going to happen, we may not know it until the convention. I don’t think anyone compiles a full tally of caucus results by candidate – especially with all those unity slates many committees run, that mix delegates supporting multiple candidates on the same slate.
How does one win the party endorsement?
Just a guess. It means nothing (see Rappaport, Jim). The only thing that matters is getting 15% so that you’re on the ballot.
It doesn’t mean anything in a legal or technical sense, but it’s politics, and it has political meaning. If Reilly wins the convention endorsement this year, it probably won’t mean anything, because he’s supposed to be the party establishment’s candidate. If Deval Patrick wins it, which now looks like a good possibility, it will mean something.
I am shocked. These numbers are really bad for Patrick.
Those numbers aren’t that bad for Deval. They reflect the simple fact that 78% of the commonwealth doesn’t know whether Patrick is his first or last name. While I believe he needs a more agressive strategy, if the S.S. Reilly keeps taking on water and the public becomes more familiar with him, he’ll be in great shape heading into the convention.
<
p>
Put 10 undecided voters in the same room with Patrick and Reilly, and 9 come out Patrick supporters. I have no doubt in my mind.
That could be true, and if so that is ok for DP. However he has been running for half a year and still 78% of the people don’t know who he is?
<
p>
That means he needs to spend big money to get name ID. Something he doesn’t have.
It’s been obvious from the start that Patrick was going to need to spend a lot of money to get his name out. If that’s all you’re getting from this poll, why do you even need a poll? Most Massachusetts voters haven’t paid any attention to the 2006 governor election yet, and have no idea who’s running, let alone know much about who’s running. The contest right now is to build an organization that can campaign for voters later, while at the same time competing for activists now. A poll of voters, now, is pointless. If there were a poll of activists now, it would tell you something.
<
p>
And in a sense, the caucuses happening all day today are a “poll of activists”. So let’s see what they tell us, when it’s all done.
We now have a list of undecideds from when we did our organizing for Deval caucuses. We will now use that list to turn out Dems for events in our area which will in turn help him get votes, raise money, and win. We have no qualms that Deval WON’T appeal to just about everyone he meets – he’s that good.
<
p>
Trust me, the grassroots isn’t done surprising everyone yet. We’ll be keepin’ on keepin’ on.
I just got back from the Medford caucuses. It looks like some wards were swept by Patrick, others by Reilly. In my ward, the Reilly folks swept the Patrick folks, with each election being within 3 – 8 votes.
<
p>
I have a basic question. Should the two male delegates have been elected in a single vote or in a separate vote, and should the female candidates have been elected together or in separate elections? We did separate elections, guaranteeing that the Reilly folks (which in my ward included the Party machinery and Reilly’s daughter and son-in-law) got to win every seat. If the Patrick people had gotten a couple more allies on board, the votes would have all gone the other way.
The usual process is for all the male delegates to be elected on one vote (if there are 3 slots, for example, then everyone votes for 3 names), all the female delegates elected on one vote, and then alternates again one vote for male and one vote for female. Of course that means you could have up to six votes: male, female, either (if you have an odd number, one slot is either gender), and the same for alternates if you have an odd number of alternates.
<
p>
But that doesn’t matter if people stick to their slate discipline. If you have two competing slates, and each one has a block of voters committed to voting for their slate, the larger block will win every election and sweep the ward.
Thanks.
<
p>
I see what you mean about slates. Part of the dynamic at our caucus was that the ward chair was bullying the lead Patrick people and accusing them of “running a slate” which he said was expressly against the rules. Yet there was clearly an orchestrated effort to get a handful of the party people reading from their notes to nominate the Reilly delegates.
Sorry, I thought I posted this in the caucus open thread. I didn’t mean to put this discussion here.
If what you describe is accurate, it sounds like it’s against the official rules!
<
p>
Per “Method of Selecting Delegates to the 2006 Massachusetts Democratic State Convention” (p. 25, Secton 14):
<
p>
“If the number of Delegates to be elected by a caucus is even, there will be two elections, one for women and one for men. If the number of Delegates to be elected to the caucus is odd (and greater than one), there will be three elections, one for women and one for men, and one open to both women and men for the one (1) odd seat. In the three-election situation, the one open to both women and men shall be held last and those defeated in the first two elections may be re-nominated.”
<
p>
Now, unless the “separate” votes you describe were actually the “men’s” and “odd’s” elections — which is entirely possible — it sounds like there was some interesting procedural finagling that might not be entirely on the up-and-up.
<
p>
Again, I guess we’d need to have all the details on this one….
Cos makes a good point about the alternates, too.
<
p>
It looks like each Medford ward will also elect 2 alternates in addition to the 5 or 6 regular delegates (depending on the ward).
<
p>
So, if you include the ward chair (automatic delegate) you would either be electing 4 or 5 delegates, plus 2 alternates. Of the regular delegates 2 should be male (elected in one vote) and 2 should be female (elected in one vote). There would be a separate “male/female” vote to fill the 5th slot.
<
p>
Then, you should have separate votes for the 2 alternate seats: one female and one male (as I understand it).
We had 6 votes:
<
p>
1) for Female #1
2) for Female #2
3) for Male #1
4) for Male #2
5) for either gender / 5th delegate
6) alternates — we handed in two slips of paper at the same time, one for a male and one for a female.
<
p>
That does break the rules from everything I can see. I don’t know if I have broken any laws, but I recorded some of this on my digital camera (which has a video mode).
But I would bring this to the attention of your local coordinator ASAP.
What is the name of your ward chairperson?
Dr. Bill Wood.
<
p>
But it wasn’t just Bill. I think all the Medford wards used the “one candidate at a time” approach.
Your local coordinator should have an emergency contact number for caucus-day operations. The campaign attorneys should be able to determine whether this should be challenged.
Vis-a-vis the North Andover caucus, but also appropriate here, I think:
——————————————————-
Challenge the caucus. (0.00 / 0)
I’m a Chair of a Town Committee and we followed the process to the letter. I expected some folks to show up–actually on the Reilly side–to mess with our caucus, so I was sure to do everything by the book.
Based on your description, it does not appear that they followed the method as outlined in the Call at all.
<
p>
You have every right to challenge. Rule #35 in the Call to Convention explains what to do:
<
p>
Challenges to the conduct of caucus and or the election of Delegates and Alternates shall be filed separately for each Ward and Town with the Compliance Review Committee by a registered Democrat, residing within the ward or town, and having direct knowledge of the grounds for the challenge. Said challenge shall be postmarked no later than ten days after the caucus. Specific grounds must be addressed in an initial challenge. The Chairperson of the Compliance Review Committee will review the challenges, and shall determine if a hearing is necessary, and shall present all information pertinent to his decision to the full committee, all subject to further review by the full committee if requested by the challenger or otherwise. Information concerning challenges will be available from the Democratic State Committee, 56 Roland Street, Suite 203, Boston, MA 02129, (617)776-2676.
<
p>
by: lightiris @ February 05, 2006 at 09:51:13 EST
I post a comment like this almost every month on either dkos or mydd, when some front page post touts early polls of some hot Senate or House races somewhere around the country. Polls right now can tell you some useful things, but they cannot give you information that is even slightly useful in the “who’s ahead” category. All they can do on that front in titillate you with meaningless numbers and mislead you if you think you know what they mean.
I’ve learned over the years that polls aren’t determinant of who will win an election. And as another blogger pointed out the State House Poll was taken before the whole Reilly/Gabrielli/St. Fleur fiasco. Coming from collecting signatures for a few candidates at a couple caucuses today and hearing about a few others; there were alot of Deval Patrick slates and not many Reilly slates.
<
p>
Looks like the Patrick campaign has got the caucuses covered well.
If Reilly was indeed 30 points ahead…I doubt you would have seen him selecting St. Fleur. His internal numbers must have shown something different…
<
p>
It’s DEVAL PATRICK time and we all know it.
<
p>
I am hearing Reilly’s daughter couldn’t even make it as a delegate to the convention in her/his own hometown of Watertown.
<
p>
Furthermore, why did he even have his daughter run as a delegate…if she loses, you’re a loser plus it exposes you again when she votes for LG…Reilly is just dumb.