In June I posted this diary where I asked for predictions on the Democratic primary. (I offered a T-shirt to the winner if I got 20 or more entries — in the event I got eight in June and one just last Sunday, so no shirt. I’ll offer a shirt for a general-election contest shortly.)
The winner was alexwill, who said in his message that he was following the delegate counts from the June convention! The complete results, based on the 50-27-23 outcome now being reported on CBS4:
| Contestant | Gabrieli | Patrick | Reilly | Total Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| alexwill | 28 | 49 | 23 | 2 (wow!) |
| lightiris | 23 | 49 | 28 | 10 |
| JJ | 30 | 45 | 25 | 10 |
| stomv (17 Sept) | 31 | 44 | 24 | 11 |
| davemb | 27 | 41 | 32 | 18 |
| cephme | 30 | 40 | 30 | 20 |
| eury13 | 27 | 37 | 35 | 25 |
| sabutai | 24 | 36 | 34 | 34 |
| southshoreguy | 38 | 29 | 33 | 42 |
Seven of the nine contestants had the winner correct but only three had the correct order of finish.
Please share widely!
I’m (A) glad that Deval actually beat my estimate (B) based my guess on the Lieutenant Governor delegate percentages, so it was completely arbitrary (C) this proves to me that even though all my careful trying to project the results using poll data and statistical physics techniques turned out to be nothing compared to taking wild guess over 3 months ago đŸ™‚
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though I do plan on doing some solid analysis of the polls, so see which were best and how close to the real results they ended up. but first i need to catch up with some of my actual physics research too…