Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

New Suffolk poll out, Deval’s lead is 13%

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This is not yet posted on the Suffolk web site (that I could find) and the only link I could find is by clicking on the link below the Weather bug where it says “The Hiller Instinct”.  More at 11 tonight.

Any way, the horse race numbers:

Patrick: 46

Healey:  33

Mihos:  7

Ross:  1

Undies  11

Charley and I split the difference.  I thought the next poll would show a 15 point Patrick lead, Charley thought it would be around 10.  (Survey USA doesn’t count because they force undecided’s to decide.  I make that caveat so that at least Charley was in the neighborhood of being right.) 

But Charley thinks that will be Deval’s floor and I’m afraid there is plenty of space to move downward. 

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Comments

  1. If it was another polling company, especially an automated caller instead of a live one, I’d take it seriously, but in the primary there were two things consitent about Suffolk: consistently high undecided numbers and consistently low Deval Patrick to opposition ratios.

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    As for Survey USA, they were the best at being anywhere near close to real results on primary day.

  2. … and pick up some mallets.  Dan Payne was right this morning.  We have to hit back with everything.  Deval needs to step up, debate her one on one and kick her WASP butt.

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    I feel like the campaign has been playing prevent defense and now it is time to put the ball on the ground and run right at her, smashmouth style.  I know he can do it.  He needs the debate – he needs to make the choice crystal clear and have more than 30 seconds at a time.

  3. There is an interesting comment in the Suffolk poll press release.

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    The 7NEWS/Suffolk University poll also reveals that Patrick’s popularity has been tarnished somewhat (-10%) by Healey’s onslaught of attack ads.  Last week, Patrick’s favorability rating was 55% favorable-24% unfavorable.  Today, his popularity is 50% favorable-31% unfavorable.

    However, the type of campaign Healey has run may not get her into the corner office.  When asked if the recent tone of the Kerry Healey campaign made respondents more or less likely to vote for her, 22% indicated more likely, 53% less likely, and 25% said no difference.

    “Aggression has a price,” stated Paleologos. “Voters are still unhappy with the Healey tone and with the direction of the state.  In the end, people still view Healey unfavorably which makes winning difficult.”

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    The polls are moving, but Muffy is going to hit a wall about 10 points south of Deval.

  4. Deval needs to push hard against Healey, but not be negative. What makes him great is that he’s not like other politicians. We need to let his great personality shine through. So yes, we need to attack, but we have to make sure we do it smart, and not sleazy.

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