Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Exit polls

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The first candidate specific exit polls have been leaked. This is from the New York Observer. Keep in mind that exit poll numbers have usually looked better for Dems than the final results. These should be at least a little better because they’re from 5:00 which means they have more sample and less time-of-day bias than earlier exit polls (like the ones from 2004).

Casey 61 – Santorum 38

Cardin 51 – Steele 48

McCaskill 53 – Talent 46

Webb 55 – Allen 45

These obviously look great, but it’s way too early to celebrate. We don’t even know if these are legitimately from the exit polling consortium. Pollster.com’s expert says he would look for an 8-10 point lead to call it based on these exits. That would put Casey and Webb in great shape, McCaskill in very good shape and Cardin/Steele way too close to call.

Post more if you find ’em. I’ll do the same.

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Comments

  1. These are from ThinkProgress, obstensibly from CNN. Not quite as good, but still leaning the right way:

    <

    p>
    VIRGINIA
    D: 52
    R: 47

    <

    p>
    RHODE ISLAND
    D: 53
    R: 46

    <

    p>
    PENNSYLVANIA
    D: 57
    R: 42

    <

    p>
    OHIO
    D: 57
    R: 43

    <

    p>
    NEW JERSEY
    D: 52
    R: 45

    <

    p>
    MONTANA
    D: 53
    R: 46

    <

    p>
    MISSOURI
    D: 50
    R: 48

    <

    p>
    MARYLAND
    D: 53
    R: 46

    <

    p>
    TENNESSEE
    D: 48
    R: 51

    <

    p>
    ARIZONA
    D: 46
    R: 50

  2. For some reason they only report it broken down by gender, etc. I did some math on the VA race and it looks like Webb 51-48 which is clearly way too close to call.

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