You may also find this of interest from the popular blog: “The Daily Kos” Fri Dec 08, 2006
If Gore Runs, He Can Afford to Wait!
by Kos
It seems the more long shot the race, the earlier a candidate throws his or her hat into the ring. Vilsack started things off. Now that we’re in the holiday season, most will wait until January. Obama will likely wait a few months more since really, what’s the hurry? He’s got the fawning press all over him already. He might as well wait until that sort of peters out, announce, then recapture the media spotlight.
It was clear that Hillary wanted to 1) wait a while to announce (she’ll have a bulls eye on her when she does), and 2) skip Iowa. Now, with Obama in the race, she can’t do either. People aren’t chattering about Hillary anymore. They’re chattering about Obama. So she has to announce and hope to steal some of that thunder. And given that Obamamania isn’t dying down, she’ll have to do that sooner rather than later. And with Obama in position to deal a knockout blow in Iowa, she’ll have to compete there as well.
Obama can afford to wait on Hillary.
Their big decision will be whether to step on her announcement or let her breathe. In 2003, John Edwards announced on September 15 to much buzz. Then, on September 17, Wes Clark stole Edwards’ thunder by making his own announcement. (Those late announcement dates are sort of funny and quaint. We’ll be on a much more accelerated schedule this year.) So Obama will be in position to squelch the Clinton media rollout with his own. It would be the sort of Machiavellian move that would signal his willingness to play tough politics.
Which brings us to Gore.
There’s few reasons for him to even hint at joining the fray this early. The biggest potential liability is the loss of the good consultants and strategists to other campaigns. But the talent would exist to shepherd him through the early contests. I mean, he’s Al Freakin’ Gore. He doesn’t need a traditional campaign to sell him to voters. And in any case, we’d see defections from other campaigns to join the Gore bandwagon.
So when? No sooner than December 2007. Let the rest of the field beat the crap out of each other before Gore comes in, savior-like, to pull together a fractured and divided party. At that point, no amount of Obamamania could stop a Gore nomination.
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I’ll ask him to run 🙂
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(Really I will, I’ll be getting trained to deliver “An Inconvenient Truth” in Nashville… – He’ll be there at least part of the time…)
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Mark
you will plead with him to sit back and wait for the others to do all the work for him. Ask him to time his entry perfectly so that the rest of the candidates appear to be squabbling children. The perfect comeback will happen. Seriously, ask him to hire Joe Trippi. The people who do the real work (vs. the good ole boys and spinning consultants) will be lining up. Beg him to not hire the nitwits who were guiding his last campaign. Tell him to trust his own instincts. Please….
but hire Joe Trippi? I like the guy, I own his book, but…Joe Trippi? His two most recent candidates are howard Dean and Kwasi Mfume.
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Gore can attract better talent than that.
I agree. Joe Trippi would be a bad choice. Mary Beth Cahill, who ran John Kerry’s campaign, would be a better choice. She was the main reason he got the nomination. But she made sure the campaign was not about her, unlike Joe Trippi, who never seemed unwilling to be interviewed while he was serving as Dean’s campaign manager. Mary Beth Cahill made sure the campaign was about the candidate. It’s probably why she is less well-known than Joe Trippi. Unfortunately, other people stepped in to “assist” the Kerry campaign (like some former Dean and Clinton people) during the general campaign and I think Mary Beth Cahill was outnumbered. Too bad…..
at least understands the basics of grassroots, something that Kerry’s team didn’t even begin to grasp. Just get Joe in there to explain the issues and problems related to grassroots. He knows this better than anyone. There are few reality based folks who can give that advice. I don’t care about Trippi’s ego. I care about his experience.
the Iowa caucuses and the NH primary because his team was able to turn out the vote. So when you say the Kerry team did not even begin to grasp the grassroots, what grassroots are you talking about? I think it should at least mean the people who vote, and not just a group of people in funny orange hats. Yes, Joe thinks he knows better than anyone and he is not afraid to say so, but it is results that matter in politics, i.e., you have to win the election!
winning the election is a good idea. John Kerry didn’t win the election. He won the primary. Big difference. There are many, me included, who feel that the election was lost when John Kerry won the primary. After witnessing the nasty tricks, I have to say that I don’t want another candidate who is willing to do anything to win, especially changing values, attacking the front runner, and dismissing the grassroots.
You should not make allegations about nasty tricks without some support. John Kerry did not change values or dismiss the grassroots. And attacking the front runner? Do you mean it is a nasty trick when a politician says that they are a better candidate than his opponent? That’s called campaigning. BTW, I seem to remember Howard Dean doing that a lot.
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As for saying the election was lost when John Kerry won the primary, that just ignores the facts. John Kerry came very close to winning an election against an incumbent President during a time when many voters considered us at war (a war that was supported by the majority of people at the time). That is unheard of. I know the Republicans like to downplay that fact; I think Democrats should stop helping them.
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Exhibit A for me will always be the Kerry campaign instructing its precinct captains in Iowa to call identified Dean supporters the day of the caucus and tell them that the caucus location had been switched (in Iowa, if you’re not there in 7 when they close the door, you’re SOL). I know this b/c I was the guy answering phones at the Cedar Rapids Dean office on Caucus Day.
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Kerry did dirty tricks during the primary (jeez, where did all those ‘Dated Dean, Married Kerry’ signs in New Hampshire come from, the ones that were put on Kerry supporters’ lawns without asking first?) then stopped in the general. What the heck??
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