Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Harbinger for the “Surge”

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(From the NYT story linked above.)

The Americans only recently moved into Tarmiya, taking over command after the local police force collapsed in December? The outpost, established in the abandoned police headquarters in the center of the town, was fortified by large blast walls. Americans typically keep one company of about 100 soldiers at such outposts.

Shortly before dawn, suicide bombers drove at least one car and possibly three cars filled with explosives into the outer perimeter of the outpost. Eyewitnesses said there was then a brief pause in the explosions before another bomber drove his car into the building, a former police station…

Sometime during the assault, a gas storage container exploded, sending black smoke billowing into the sky as militants laid siege, firing on the Americans from multiple directions, according to an Iraqi official and residents. As the gun battle raged, at least four American helicopters swept overhead to evacuate the wounded soldiers. There were no reports of how many militants were killed.

The attack on the outpost in Tarmiya came as American troops move into similar stations throughout Baghdad for the first time since the early months after the invasion. Monday’s attack underscored the inherent risks in the new strategy.

This appears to be a new tactic by the insurgents and I’m afriad a training run for future attacks.

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  1. Reports now come from Iraq that clashes between Sunnis and Shiites are DOWN 85% since the new strategy of keepiung the troops along with the Iraqui troops on patrol and quartered WITHIN Metro-Bagdad.  So much for the left wing rants of “civil war”.

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    Now what we begin to see is the “real” enemy… Al Quida! we see their forces attacking the outer fringes of the city. These are “outsiders” from foreign countries and not “civil war” Iraqis. Now our troops have an outstanding opportunity to kill these vermin by the hundreds and hopefully thousands

      • More smoke for “horesman”..he’s runnin low! Wouldn’t wanna see em crashin without that big buzz and wakin up way before noon in his parents cellar..Whoa!! can’t have that!

    • Just curious.  I’m guessing it’s not WorldNewsNet.  And does this include the renewed clashes with Kurds?  Or are the Kurds “Al Quida” too?

    • I’d loved to see a credible link to that 85% figure, especially given that the new “surge strategy” hasn’t really begun.  Based on some press reports, there is indication that some violence is down, but that certainly has to do with the nature of insurgents–they slip in and out of places based on resistance.

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      As for fighting Al Quida, maybe we should be fighting them in the mountains of Afghanistan and Pakistan where they are regrouping instead of using Iraqis citizens as killing props. 

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      But all you’ve done is rant here and offered zippo of substance.  And here is one more factoid to dispel your fantasy that Iraq somehow became more peaceful in the last few weeks: Sixty US soldiers and marines killed since February 1.

      • I did a diary on the Al Qaeda in Iraq question over a month ago. Since then, I’ve read a number of articles (Guardian and Christian Science Monitor, I believe) that suggest that the Al Qaeda in Iraq folks piss off the native Iraqi Sunnis. There is not peace between the two factions. There’s also a lot of evidence that a lot of the violence has a tribal component: you bomb our tribe; we have to bomb yours.

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        The neoconservatives have tended to elide all of “our enemies” into one big, undifferentiated mass with Al Qaeda at the top. I’m not sure quite how Secretary Rice thinks about it, but in a more Rancid view, it reduces everything to a simple us vs them videogame.

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        Perhaps that’s the problem.

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        Such people should spend less time playing video games and more time learning about the Persians, Arabs, Turks, Baathists, Islamists, Twelver Shi’ism, and Sunni Islam.

      • like Frank’s at some point or another always gives you a ” number killed this week” or this month or something like that. If you want exact numbers Frank, ask your liberal politician friends about what they’re going to do about about the 272 killed (exact number)in Washington DC last year alone in homicides let alone the rest of America’s major cities which combined makes Iraq look like a minor traffic accident.
        Frank, will you become depressed and suicidal if the sectarian violence in Iraq now begins to diminish dramatically and Americans begins to realize that the real fight is on with Al Quida ( whom the liberals have insisted were never in Iraq)? For some reason left wing lunatics just can’t seem to grasp the reality that these radical islamo-fascists aren’t going to go away. We are going to have to fight them somewhere at some time. Better NOW in the Middle East while we have all our assets there than let’s say, where the French are now fighting them in their streets as they burn cars and create mayhem. Frank, why do you want Al Quida to win so badly?

        • …based on your sourcing, I can better understand where you’re coming from (or at least confirm what I knew.)

    • …the civil war in Lebanon lasted, off and on from about 1975 to 1989 (as some people put it) or 1999 (as other people put it).  It was not a continuous conflict, but that’s about how long it lasted.  Even assuming that your 85% figure for the last couple of weeks has anything to do with reality (which I sincerely doubt), that has little meaning in the long run.

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      Also, just to remind you, Lebanon, like Iraq, is another one of those “made up countries” made up by European powers out of the vestiges of the Ottoman empire after the end of WWI.  (So was Yugoslavia, for that matter.)  The people there are just going to have to fight it out themselves, and come to their own conclusions as to their destinies.  As have the Yugoslaves–mostly.

      • All of these liberal threads have a common theme.. an endless, mindless all consuming hatred for George Bush at any and all cost..that’s about it.
        There is NOTHING, ZERO, NADA to be read that is the slightest bit constructive. It’s all “Bush lied , people died”, Neocons are to blame, I hate Chenney, blah, blah, blah,,,,ad nauseunm .
        So lets come to the point . What the hell do you lunatics propose we do other than turn tail and run like hell and let the Islamo-fascisists butcher the peaceful Arabs we abandon and the take over the richest oil fields on the planet???
        I’m all ears for your “plan”…..
        Is there anything that you can offer other than your grade school name calling and pscho-babble?

        • … and your posts frequently break them:

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          We welcome bold,  constructive observations.  To us, this means commentary typical of thoughtful discussion between acquaintances who may hold differing views on important issues, but who debate those issues in a respectful manner.  Insults, personal  attacks, rudeness, and blanket unsupported statements reduce the level of discourse, interfere with our basic objective, and are not permitted.

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          We welcome conservatives who can behave like adults. You’ve not been one of them. “Mindless”, “lunatics”, “pscho-babble”[sic] … that’s about enough of that. You’ve brought a boatload of name-calling in here, QED. Knock it off or we ban you.

          • is a terrible thing. Isn’t it? Especially when it conflicts with convictions in minds that are already closed.

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            Now the dark hand of censorship descends to stiffle any dissenting remarks and the threats are made. The liberal “Thought Police” have arrived to the wild cheering of the “politically correct” members and total and absolute uniformity of thought can be restored to the board.

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            Fear not Mr. Thought Policeman, I am moving on as I have found out rather ,reaffirmed what I already knew about the liberal mentality in that it is supposedly based in  tollerance and openness when ,in fact, that is hardly the case at all.

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            Enjoy the stiffling atmosphere of total conformity that you have so diligently created and fostered!

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            George Orwell

            • and bandwidth is cheap.  If you don’t like it, start your own.  Freedom of the electronic press and whatnot.

            • Fear not Mr. Thought Policeman, I am moving on as I have found out rather ,reaffirmed what I already knew about the liberal mentality in that it is supposedly based in  tollerance and openness when ,in fact, that is hardly the case at all.

              Enjoy the stiffling atmosphere of total conformity that you have so diligently created and fostered!

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              that this statement means GBCW.  Somehow I doubt it, though, moth to the flame (NPI) and all that. 

              • Total conformity would be an improvement, too.

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                Democrats and progressives just don’t know what the heck we stand for. We know very well who we’re against. Rancid comments are actually a distraction from figuring out exactly what is our position on tax policy, what do we think should be done about Iraq, what is required to improve education. Those are harder questions than why certain comments/commenters are stoopid.

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                I look forward with eager anticipation to the descent of the Dark Hand of Censorship. Perhaps we can discuss harder questions. I look forward to some elevated psychobabble.

                • And, I have to say that seeing Orwell invoked as some sort of inspiration for the commentary above is tantamount to bowdlerized pornography. 

            • …on redstate.com?  And folks like you, with really nothing to contribute but old rhetoric, would last about 5 minutes.  (The someone of the opposite elk as Peter MAY last a week).  AS someone who was banned at Redstate, I really resist such a move…and don’t think it’s ever been done.

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              But you Ronco…you just take up space and have no redeeming value like Peter, Gary, bostonshepard and others.  Thumbs down.

              • …the Republican party does engage their apparatchiks to disrupt legitimate discussion on message boards, and (I assume) now blogs.  I first noticed that in the run-up to the 2000 election.  There was an obvious Republican apparatchik who was disrupting discussion on the NYTimes gay rights board.  He had indicated that he would leave in November, but he left on Dec. 12, the day that the US Supremes declared Shrub president, and he was never to be seen again.

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                It amused me that the Republican party would employ an apparatchik to disrupt discussion on a relatively obscure message board.

        • Where in this thread folks claimed “Bush lied , people died”, Neocons are to blame, I hate Chenney”.

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          Eww, I’ve just got a taste of dried up stale mush and I can’t quite put my finger on it…oh, it’s just the rhetoric you’ve been serving up around here.  It’s so 2004.

      • on the Ottoman history is simplistic and somewhat “underwhelming” as it neglects the most important reason why it is not possible to let them simply “fight it out” in this case. Its all about oil. The fact is that 25% of the worlds known oil reserves happen to be underneath this little battlefield and our economy as well as the rest of the world’s depends on who holds control of it.
        Unfortunately, your liberal friends here in America won’t permit new drilling ( and when they do Hillary wants to renig on the contracts they sign); they absolutely won’t permit new nuclear plants,  a new oil refinery hasn’t been built in 25 years.. so in other words , our energy “policy” is a disaster. We currently import more than 60 % of our oil and rising so without middle east oil to put it simply we’re screwed.
        So in essence , what the “cut and run ” crowd is advocating is relinquishing control of the oil and ultimately our economy to the Taliban, Al Qaedas and Iranian Mulahs of the world…Enjoy!

        • The fact is that 25% of the worlds known oil reserves happen to be underneath this little battlefield

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          That would be a big fat WRONG

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          Don’t look now, but here comes a link… you know, facts citing responsible sources.

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          World oil reserves by region

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          Note that all of Iraq constitutes approximately 100 billion barrels, out of a total in excess of 1300 billion barrels.  The Middle East has a total of approximately 60% of the world’s reserves, but last I checked our war with Iraq hasn’t bled over to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iran, or “other.”

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          So please, enough with the ranting.  Quit spewing the nasties, and consider injecting some facts into your diatribes.  Otherwise, you’re just tiresome.

        • …but I’ll just pose one question to you. Regardless of who controls Iraq (if it remains together–which I doubt) or the various regions of Iraq, what do you think the Iraqis are going to do with the oil?  Eat it?  If they don’t sell it, how will they get their currency for foreign trade?  It isn’t exactly as if they were a huge industrial power.

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          BTW, you are fairly presumptuous if you really believe that I am opposed to nuclear power.  ON THE OTHER HAND, it is highly probable that North Korea obtained the plutonium for its recent pop-gun of a nuclear blast from the spent fuel rods of its nuclear reactor.  Nuclear power is not entirely benign, for that among other reasons.  Quite frankly, though, no form of energy conversion is particularly benign.

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          As a further aside, continuing political problems in the Middle East makes coal liquefaction to be more and more attractive.  The US has lots of coal.

          • of liquification of coal. Isn’t this a horible proposal to your “global warming ‘ liberal friends?
            Won’t they attack you for proposing such a dreaded “green house gas” generating fossil fuel?
            What will Hollywood say? or “Potroast” for that matter?

  2. On liberal sites, I keep seeing evidence that the surge is falling behind plan. I’ve seen stuff like the following:

    • The Iraqi government hasn’t done what’s necessary to make peace with the Sunnis.
    • The Kurds didn’t send enough troops.
    • The Iraqi Army put up fewer troops than necessary
    • The new U.S. troops are underarmored
    • The new U.S. troops are arriving more slowly than planned.
    • By taking down the Mahdi Army blockades before putting in Iraqi Govt-American blockades, Sunni attacks like the recent ones have become more likely in Shiite neighborhoods.

    Now, my filter on this stuff will tend to bias toward collecting bad news. I don’t think that bias is necessarily wrong, though, given the many wrong and rosey predictions coming from the White House and given its matchless incompetence. However, I’d prefer to have a more objective reading on it.

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    So here’s a question: Does anyone know where the elements of the surge plan were spelled out? It would be nice to look at the plan and see whether the military and Iraqis are even sticking to the plan. Then, it would be nice to know whether it’s working or not.

    • …the surge plan is about as intelligently designed as the German plan for their surge, the Battle of the Bulge, toward the end of WWII.  What happened there?  Lots of sound and fury, signifying…not so much.

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      What appears to have eluded many people is that in a war against “insurgents” (a/k/a “indigenous peoples,” “residents”) during the period of the surge all that the “insurgents” need do is to wait quitely at home until the “surge” has ended, and, after the surgists have been removed, start whacking at each other again.

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      Although, quite frankly, I suspect that the “insurgents” are quietly going about their ethnic- and religious-cleansing business (getting the Christians to leave the country, for example, and segregating Shia and Sunni areas of the country) under the radar screen.  You’ll never know that it happened.  It’ll just happen.

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      Quite frankly, I pay attention to Marc Lynch (AbuAardvark) and Juan Cole (Informed Comment) for my information on the Iraq situation.  At least they speak the language of the…insurgents.

  3. explains the lunacy of our current efforts in Iraq, and what should be done, in an editorial from 2/11 WaPo.  No happy endings.

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    Then last Thursday, wingnut pundit Hugh Hewitt invited General Odom on  to his radio show to discuss that editorial, and to take on Gen. Odom using the standard neo-con talking points regarding Iraq, Iran, spreading democracy, etc.

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    The transcript is remarkable for the way that General Odom obliterates Hewitt. I’ve never heard such a blunt assessment of the situation in Iraq from anyone, let alone a Lt. General.

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    Again, there are no happy endings, especially regarding the “Surge”, but it’s a reality check.

    1. to answer KBusch above on what exactly is the new strategy: i think the essence is “clear and hold” versus “clear and move on”. 

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    In earlier operations, Iraqi and American forces cleared many neighborhoods of terrorists and insurgents, but when our forces moved on to other targets, the killers returned.  This time, we’ll have the force levels we need to hold the areas that have been cleared.

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    frank s suggests as much in his first sentence. 

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    also:

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    In earlier operations, political and sectarian interference prevented Iraqi and American forces from going into neighborhoods that are home to those fueling the sectarian violence. This time, Iraqi and American forces will have a green light to enter those neighborhoods — and Prime Minister Maliki has pledged that political or sectarian interference will not be tolerated.

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    that’s what is different. 

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    2. frank, it’s true that attacks continue.

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    however, evidently 327 families returned to their baghdad homes yesterday (via Iraq The Model).  in previous weeks, families had only been leaving, not returning. 

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    perhaps that’s also a harbinger.  hard to know. 

    • In counterinsurgency strategy, I don’t think “clear and move on” makes an appearance. The ink-spot theory or the Vietnamization plans were all based on clearing and holding. To the extent that U.S. forces were clearing and moving on, it is because the Bush Administration sent too small a force into the region. So we were rushing willy-nilly from crisis to crisis.

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      p>When I read that the Administration said it was abandoning “clear and move on”, I thought this is either saying:

      • we’re going to stop running the war incompetently or
      • we’ve abandoned a doctrine we never held. Hooray for us!

      To answer my original question, the clearest thing I’ve found is the PowerPoint presentation reduced to PDF at the White House web site (link) which I’ve sited previously. I would like to see something more detailed and measurable, though.

      • Is that they’re focusing on clear and hold in Baghdad now, which we’ve never really done before.

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        Every other time there was a big operation, we were targetting insurgents.  Now the goal is protecting the population, which involves going after insurgents sometimes but mostly a lot of patrolling.

    • to “327 families….” is completely in Arabic for me in both firefox & IE. What browser are you using to view it?

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      BTW, I’m all for reading different points of view, but IMHO ‘Iraq the Model’ is pretty heavy on LGF type propaganda, and a bit lean on actual facts.

      • There is an “English” tab at that link, which does show  English translations of headlines from Alsabah Newspaper, but nothing on “327 families..” that I could find.

      • Although you have to discount for bias… same as Juan Cole.  He puts up all kinds of crap that he should know it doesn’t matter in Iraq as much as in Peoria.

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