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MA-05: Tsongas’ poll says she’s winning

March 22, 2007 By eaboclipper

The Lowell Sun is reporting that Nikki Tsongas’ internal polling shows she is leading.  It was conducted by Deval Patrick’s polling firm Kiley & Company.

Fifth Congressional District candidate Niki Tsongas is encouraged by a recent poll done by her campaign that shows her with broad leads over Lowell City Councilor Eileen Donoghue in several categories.

I hadn’t seen this here yet thought you’d all be interested.  I haven’t heard much from my side of the aisle yet.

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Comments

  1. centralmaguy says

    March 22, 2007 at 9:50 pm

    Intrepid political reporting on the part of the Sun. Her poll position is due entirely to name recognition and sentimentality towards her family, not to mention the media’s focus on both. Everybody knows that. I’d really like to see the percentage of undecided voters.

    <

    p>
    I think when this campaign actually starts and the voters start looking at the positions, qualifications, and experience of the other candidates, those numbers are going to change.

    • eaboclipper says

      March 22, 2007 at 9:52 pm

      she released a press release. They covered it because it is news.

      • centralmaguy says

        March 22, 2007 at 9:57 pm

        Reporters are getting lazier. No comments from any other campaigns, just regurgitation of the Tsongas camp’s own words.

        • eaboclipper says

          March 22, 2007 at 10:13 pm

          However, Donoghue did say: “It reminds me of Mrs. Tsongas’ earlier statements that she didn’t believe in polls, and had her late husband, Paul, looked at polls he probably would have never run for office.”

          Finegold said he was generally pleased with the poll results. “Right now I’m just all about hard work and getting out there to meet people.”

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          I think Mrs. Donoghue is being somewhat less than forthcoming here then.  Talk about how polls don’t matter is quite funny coming from a politician.  Because done right they do matter.  It’s how a modern campaign is run, on both sides.  To say otherwise is kind of misleading.

        • david says

          March 22, 2007 at 10:13 pm

          they did have comments from Donoghue and Finegold.  I think internal polls are borderline useless and I question whether they merit a story, but it’s not like the Sun just printed the release verbatim.

          • eaboclipper says

            March 22, 2007 at 10:21 pm

            I’ll disagree with you on the point about internal polls being useless.  If done right, with a scientific method they are accurate.  I saw the 2002 MA-05 poll done by McCarthy after the election (I was very involved in the campaign) and the numbers were dead on within 1%.  It is not in the polling companies best interest to pad a poll.  Because if the candidate loses and was predicted to win, the company will be badmouthed.

            <

            p>
            That being said, I think RMG and BMG should petition Suffolk to conduct a baseline poll and release crosstabs soon.

          • centralmaguy says

            March 22, 2007 at 10:39 pm

            I stand corrected!

  2. frankskeffington says

    March 22, 2007 at 11:27 pm

    …a poll story without reporting any numbers.  Has things really sunk this low?

    • afertig says

      March 22, 2007 at 11:48 pm

    • eaboclipper says

      March 23, 2007 at 12:10 am

      here

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      Niki Tsongas has burst out of the starting gate, launching her campaign website last week, announcing that her finance committee has already raised $140,000, and releasing an internal poll that showed her in the lead in all categories of questions.  Beside the obvious interest in running an aggressive campaign, there are at least two strategic reasons for moving so quickly.  In a race with many new faces, Tsongas undoubtedly has the best name recognition district-wide, and her early moves might be designed to create a sense of inevitability about her candidacy.  Such a strategy would lead those who will cover the race to unconsciously shade their opinions accordingly.  The second part of this strategy would be to demoralize the other candidates, hoping that one or more would drop out at this early stage due to the long shot perception of their campaigns.

      • afertig says

        March 23, 2007 at 12:38 am

        but ultimately irrelevant with regards to Frank’s point – there are no numbers in the article you cite (or in the Lowell Sun) about how far ahead Tsongas is. You have a knack for saying interesting but irrelevant things.

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        Saying that she is “in the lead” doesn’t really mean much. 20 points ahead? 10 points ahead? 50? All are substantial, but of course they lead to different interpretations.

        <

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        As to the article on the Tsongas strategy. It’s a pretty good strategy, I have to admit. Though I’d of course prefer that “aura of inevitability” to be backed up with a genuine grassroots effort, so we’ll see how that goes. It’s still very, very early. Good link tho.

        • lynne says

          March 23, 2007 at 12:11 pm

          …rounding out her campaign team, including tech wiz Charles Steelfisher. I expect we’ll see some of the strategy of grassroots-building as part of her campaign (and if she does, it’ll be even despite the fact that she doesn’t have to, given her name recognition and fundraising ability – she does have quite a network to tap into). Tsongas as much said to me she plans a grassroots strategy. We’ll see if that pans out over the next couple months.

  3. weissjd says

    March 23, 2007 at 5:11 pm

    who are you going to vote for? This is really the lamest story yet. All these internal poll stories are ridiculous to begin with. We’re taking the campaign’s word that they actually have a poll, no idea of methodology, margin of error, etc. But now this one where she’s leading in “several categories!”

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    If I were EBIII I would post a poll asking in which category you think Niki has the biggest lead. 

    • eaboclipper says

      March 23, 2007 at 5:12 pm

      That is what I got out of the story.

  4. hopefuldem says

    March 24, 2007 at 2:08 pm

    Does anyone else thinks it’s interesting that this looks like a race between two women?  Has anyone compared their positions on issues?  Is there a debate in the works?

  5. soxfan says

    April 1, 2007 at 6:46 pm

    This poll is based on name recognition only (of her husband) is was done before other serious candidates, like Barry Finegold, even announced.  Wait until the fundraising results are announced and “the people” get to hear about positions and experience.  Tsongas will carry some votes because of her name.  She may even be a nice person.  I look forward to meeting her.  But she has no qualifications, except her name, and unless the people want a radical change, that’s not going to “make it”.

    • moonbat says

      April 2, 2007 at 9:19 am

      I am supporting Jamie Eldridge in that race.  He is a true progressive, like us.  He will represent MA well in D.C. and is not afraid to support higher taxes, increased education funding, Marriage Equality, and LGBTQ issues in general.  Does Nikki have those bona fides?

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      Jamie was huge on Beacon Hill, where he stood out as a progressive among Dems pretending to be progressive.  Jamie is a MA liberal in the Ted Kennedy / John Kerry mold, and that’s good enough for me.

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