David Bernstein made me laugh:
3. The BMG kiss of death. Blue Mass Group endorsed Gloribell Mota in the state rep race. Slaughtered! They endorsed Tim Schofield in the Allston-Brighton council race. Crushed! Earlier this month they endorsed Tim Flaherty for state senate — pummeled! And Jamie Eldridge for US Rep — Demolished!
Uh … yeah, we sure can pick 'em. Just wait 'til we get casinos: BMG says put it all on red black — baby needs a new pair of shoes!
Every once in a while, some nice person tries to blow smoke up our whatzis and says “Oh, but you're so influential!” And we always get a lot of flak here over our endorsements. And they're fun, and we like doing them, and we like encouraging those who we think are good candidates. But I would bet that we move only a handful of votes — particularly when there's more than one good choice. The action isn't happening online, it's happening in the neighborhoods. And there's usually someone here who knows the race better than we do, and tells us so. (Striker57 would seem to be on a roll, e.g.)
Anyway, the less said about The Mighty BMG, the better. It ain't about us three — QED.
But I think you guys should consider endorsing Romney for the GOP nomination.
I spend HOURS emailing BMG diatribes on Romney around the nation, PROVING hi conservative bona fides to those in other states who think he’s a Liberal because he’s from MA! BMG’s attacks ae an ENORMOUS hole card!
Our diatribes don’t prove that Romney is a conservative. They prove that he’ll say anything to get elected.
does the Phoenix do much in the way of endorsements any more? I tried to find if they’d weighed in on any of these races, but all I could find is their “all-in” backing of the Gov’s casino program.
I voted for Flaherty for state senator based on the BMG endorsement.
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I voted to Schofield as well, but was going to vote for him anyway.
We had people on the street for our BMG volunteer day and a lot of fun at the BMG Party at the Blue Coyote.
it’s more about being out-of-sync with Democratic voters (those were all Dem prelims, right?) BMG just might be influential in swinging the candidates towards the concerns of the young urban progressives, but if that loses in Dem primaries, it’ll surely hurt in general elections.
…Bernstein would have made such a silly remark. An endorsement, which BMG did, is not a prediction. A prediction is a statement as to “who we believe will, an endorsement is a statement as to who we believe should win. There is a vast difference between the two.
I think David’s remark was mostly tongue-in-cheek. Mostly. And indeed, our endorsements are not predictions. I’m not Chuck Todd, here.
…it was an attack on Bernstein’s presumptuousness. Pomposity. Whatever you want to call it.
…there’s a David here and a David Bernstein. I believe that I got your comment confused.
Bernstein.
Bernstein said it is a kiss of death, he knows the difference between prediction and endorsement.
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What he’s noting is the phenomenon of support from progressive pro-gay rights groups hurting a candidate. This was researched in a poll discussed here a few months ago, remember? This explains why some winning candidates (Galluccio, Tsongas) do not return their phone calls and do not seek BMG’s endorsement.
with a voting record available for all to see. No candidate who supports equal marriage has lost to an anti candidate in 2 election cycles in this state.
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Tsongas uses BMG as her blog. She has been hit by Repubs for doing so. You need to rework the logic on this one.
The point was that support by gay rights groups – not support for gay marriage, but support by gay rights groups – makes people less likely to vote for a candidate. Thus it’s not merely bad predictive skills, or even being out-of-touch with the party, but the “kiss of death”.
Well, you’ve got a long way to go to prove the correlation equals causation.
BMG may have supported Eldridge over Tsongas, but I’d bet all the money I was worth that they’ll back her over Oganowski in the general – if I supported casinos in Massachusetts, of course.
BMG makes thoughtful endorsements. And much more effective ones then the editorial writers at the Herald and Globe because people do get active based on your endorsements. I am always pleased when a candidate I support gets the BMG endorsement and concerned when they do not.
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At a time when so many younger voters (for that matter voters overall) are abandoning the election process, BMG has created new interest in elections. Let the posts continue and let the endorsements flow.
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blockquote>BMG moves more voters then the Globe or Herald
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That’s a hell of a claim.
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I’m not saying it isn’t true, but how can something like this be proven?
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While BMG has a loyal following I’m not sure it adds up to the combined readership of the Globe and Herald, which I think would signify greater influence overall.
That’s the 2nd time in a week I’ve screwed that up…
The Globe and Herald endorsed in the Galluccio and Ciommo races and then never covered the race. In fact, neithrt the Globe nor Herald even reminded people it was election day. (If I remember the Globe’s Flaherty endorsement was bland -almost as if they had never met the guy but had to go through the motions)
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On the other hand BMG endorsed in these races and Basile race and then keep the election activity on the front page. (I note that I am always able to get election results at BMG long before they are available on the Globe website)
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So while I can’t give you a database that “proves the point” I made, I can give you my gut reaction. Globe and Herald certainly have larger readerships but BMG ‘s readers are more involved and active. You can take it for what it is worth.
Striker Strikes Out LOL
You get it? Striker(57) strikes out.
ROFL
As much as I love Tim Schofield, I think we need to get behind Mark Ciommo big time. Glennon is just plain scary. And to the best of my knowledge, Ciommo is pretty progressive.
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And even better, if the Schofield and Ciommo camps join forces, I bet we can help Ciommo win in November.
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Just a thought.
I think Bernstein’s comment is terrific: the lower the expectations, the easier the achievement. At this point, if candidates we endorse get even one vote, we can suppose we have achieved something.
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On the other hand, read another way, one might conclude that Bernstein has actually suggested that we are even more powerful than previously imagined. If our very endorsement can ensure than candidates lose — the, “kiss of death,” the three horsemen of Massachusetts politics, as it were (query who should be the fourth) — then we’re still effectively in the position of making the winners, right?
Coincidentally, I employ that very maxim in my bedroom strategy. tblade: exceeding the lowered expectations of greater Boston-area women since 1999!
Glad to give you a chuckle, Charley. You folks have to admit, your candidates are on a major losing streak, is all I’m saying.
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On the plus side, I seem to recall a certain BMG gubernatorial endorsee who ended up victorious. I imagine that one makes up for a few Eldridges. (And Andrea Silbers, and Jon Bonifazes….)
Just choose your office.
While it will take a month or so before we can do a surname-based analysis of how many Latino voters actually did come out in Eastie, I think even a cursory glance at the numbers suggests the opposite is true: more Latino voters came out on Tuesday in Eastie than ever before, in any election, ever, possibly by a factor of 2. If memory serves, only a little under 300 people with Latino surnames voted in Eastie in 2006 in the Patrick-Healey race, and that was the record then.
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Mota got a solid 600 votes. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of her votes came from non-Latinos, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if some Latinos voted for Basile, who bought heavy advertising in the Eastie Latino paper (and, shockingly enough) got its endorsement. And the Menino organization may have helped Drago capture a few Latino votes as well.
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If Mota’s people had voted for Drago — or vice versa — Basile would have lost. Latinos are far, far from being a majority of the vote in East Boston. But their importance in the electorate has never been greater, and it is increasing all the time, albeit slowly. The big winners in Boston’s future will be those who appeal across racial lines — for example, people like Anthony Petruccelli, Sam Yoon, or the governor.
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Avi Green