Ogo headed to big loss.
Question for Armchair Political Operatives
Let’s rewind to September.
If you were his campaign advisor, what would you have recommended?
My $0.02 below, but I’m more interested in yours. Specifically, two questions.
* * *
1. Who is your target?
Are you trying to get the 25% (?) of EaBo/Fred Smerlas pure Republicans (ie, red on social, cultural, economic, and foreign policy issues) — get them to actually vote for you in a big way, drive turnout?
Or are you trying to position yourself as a left-leaning R, like Weld or Mitt in 2002 — and get independents?
Ogo: Former.
GGW suggests: Latter.
(I realize R’s fear that word because “latte” — as in latte-sipping liberals — is in “latter.”
2. Frame
If you could control the frame — you may fail, but if you could — what would it be?
Niki frame: Referendum on Bush, Iraq.
Ogo frame: Congress is broken.
My highly scientific poll of 2 (wife, plus a guy named Kenny) is that “Congress broken” sounds good in theory but is used by everyone, therefore devoid of meaning.
GGW says:
Theme 1: A teeny bit of balance…11-and-1 is better than 12-and-zero.
“Niki is a nice lady, but having an all-delegation team in DC really hurts us, particularly post-Big-Dig. Better to have 11D’s and 1 moderate R than to have 12D’s.”
Theme 2: I think the immigration meme was actually not a bad choice. NRCC isn’t totally stupid (mostly?): their polling is right that of the issues out there, this is the best one for an R.
It was the Ogo handling of the issue that was really bad. It’s been covered here how his mailer is a huge turn-off to independents even if it fires up the base.
So how would Ogo have been able to steer the election to his frame? (almost said: to his farm).
Ogo should have taken SCHIP off table by supporting it. Instead, he somehow tried to attach immigration to it, when it was explicitly a stretch.
Alternative Ogo: “I’m with Senator Hatch, I support SCHIP, like Niki.” Done.
Don’t let the opponent choose the issue! SCHIP one was perfect for Niki, as she got a double-play out of it — issue that works for Dems (health care), issue that fits her theme (Bush = bad).
How could Ogo made immigration a key question? Take a real bill that’s in play, and put all your energy into making that the frame. It turns out that:
House Judiciary Immigration Subcommittee is holding a hearing Thursday on a comprehensive immigration bill that would allow undocumented immigrants who have been in the country for five years to become legal permanent residents.
The bill is sponsored by Congresswoman Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas). Jackson Lee’s bill would require non-criminal illegal immigrants to complete a course in English and perform 40 hours of community service.
Turn the tables. Make this your ad campaign, since it’s a legitimate issue before Congress. “I’m opposed, where is Niki?”
Okay, that’s the GGW memo that’s probably wrong and certainly too late.
Armchair pol-ops, what’s your take? How would you have made this a tight race (given the limitations of the candidate?)
peter-porcupine says
“It’s not a vote that either one of us can take, because the date of the election is too close to the vote. I really don’t like to ask people to give opinions on hypothetical situations, like Deval Patrick does, but I will say this – we need to be careful with taxpayer money. This income standard is nationwide, not just here. This isn’t a one-time jump, it’s a new entitlement that nobody knows how much it will cost. Is this big a jump NEEDED in the Midwest or the Rockies? What does Niki’s Washington friends tell her the rest of the country is doing? I just want to take care of kids who truly need it, not well-off kids in the midwest, right here in the Mass. 5th.”
laurel says
if you were my candidate and said, that, i’d conclude that you were still dodging the question. especially if the opponent was able to come up with a reasoned and firm opinion.
mr-lynne says
… the schedule, as indicated by Mat Murphy during the debate, indicates that it is indeed a vote that the winner can take.
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As for this idea that nobody knows how much it will costs… I don’t have them but figures were bandied about during the debate and in the news. Somebody clearly has some idea of what it will cost.
sabutai says
Republicans have been trying the “send at least one Republican” for a while, and it didn’t work, even when they had the majority.
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I think he had a good thing going with a “fight the machine” attitude. I’d have advised him to steer clear of any Republican support — funding from the NRCC, Washington training, anything. Treat the Republicans as Nancy Boyda treated the Democrats.