Finally, we have a poll. 457 likely voters. Survey dates: 10/8-10 (the UMass-Lowell debate was on 10/9). MoE: +/- 4.7%. Confidence: 95%.
Candidate Now (Sept 11)
Tsongas 51 (51)
Ogonowski 42 (41)
Murphy 4 (1)
Hayes 2 (2)
Thompson 0 (2)
Undecided 1 (4)
The most interesting results, IMHO:
- A freakishly large gender gap: among men, Ogo has gone from +13 in September to +18 now, whereas among women, Tsongas has gone from +32 to +37. Overall, a 55-point spread. Good grief.
- Ogo has tanked among seniors. In September, he held a small lead of +2. Now, he’s way down — Tsongas is at +14. Seniors were a quarter of the sample both times, so these numbers seem reasonably solid.
- Tsongas has widened her lead substantially among voters age 35-49, from +2 to +13. This group is a third of the sample.
- Conversely, the positions have flipped among voters age 18-34, who used to favor Tsongas but now favor Ogo. However, the sample size here is much smaller — only 10% — so the MoE is about 15%.
- As has been remarked elsewhere, normally independents and moderates vote similarly. Not so here: “independents” (40% of the sample) continue to favor Ogo, but “moderates” (also 40%, but presumably a different 40%) have gone from +2 for Tsongas to a remarkable +17 for Tsongas.
- There’s also a substantial gap among the “things are lousy” crowd: among the 70% who disapprove of the job Congress is doing, Ogo is at +5, but among the 70% who think the country is on the wrong track, Tsongas is way ahead at +31. I’ll leave that one to the political scientists to sort out.
Overall, the Tsongas campaign has to be quite happy with this poll. She is still over the crucial 50% line, and seniors (who are most likely to vote) have shifted dramatically toward her. And the overall horserace margin has not moved in a statistically significant way over the last month.
Please share widely!
I thought that Tsongas would have expanded her lead. I looks like the illegal immigrant push is helping Ogonowski rally his base and put them in the more likely to vote category. But at the same time, it’s likely the issue that is pushing away seniors and women. In the end issues matter and that’s why Tsongas is maintaining her at plus 50%.
and acknowledging that SurveyUSA is pretty reliable…
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this whole poll stinks. The swings are too far across demographics [gender, age group, etc]. It’s not as if there are issues that are specifically cutting across these demographics and Tsongas and Ogo took diametrically opposed positions. Sure, different issues impact different demographics in different ways, but neither candidate is advocating to eliminate Social Security, end the terrible suffraging of women, or give every voter a Wii for Judeo-Christian winter holiday.
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– Ogo’s position on social security — which only became clear over the last month so wouldn’t have been reflected in the September poll — is deeply irresponsible: he says he won’t raise taxes, cut benefits, or raise the retirement age. In other words, he simply refuses to acknowledge that there’s a problem. Yet there is a problem, and people who know about social security know that. I would not be surprised if Ogo’s nonsensical view on social security accounts in part for the large shift in seniors toward Tsongas.
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– It’s difficult to hypothesize the impact of Ogo’s bizarre position on the SCHIP veto. Yet I have no doubt that it has had a significant impact.
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So, as usual with SurveyUSA, my guess is that it’s pretty accurate.
but the magnitude is just enormous, and that’s what makes me scratch my noggin [and/or hold my nose].
Some of the cross tab sample sizes are way too small to draw big conclusions from.
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For example, the sample size for the 18-34 year old age group is only 45 actual respondents. Whats the margin of error on a sample that small? Swings in some of these categories just can’t be over analyzed.
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Having said that, the top line is prolly accurate.
It’s something like 457 “likely” out of 728 “registered”, or a 63% turnout. Anyone want to have a poll on the actual turnout? (I’ll take half that, or 32%).
but his 4% worries me. Depending on GOTV on Tuesday that could be a deciding margin, and I guarantee you his voter’s aren’t going for Ogo otherwise.
… I probably would have given Murphy a boost. As is I don’t want another Nader situation.
Why didn’t that Al Gore run for President and remember, Gore did win in 2000. Really tired of the Dems blaming a loss on something other than not having a stellar candidate in the first place.In this case having one as bad as OGO is your insurance policy (even though I am a diehard Murphy supporter)
but i now learn from this poll i’m actually a “moderate”
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what’s the difference? are independents moderates with iphones?
I think, technically, the difference is that “independent” is a fact — are you enrolled in a major party, or aren’t you — whereas “moderate” is the way you describe your own ideology when given the usual three choices.