The first comes to us from the state just to our south: Connecticut.
Rasmussen Reports in Connecticut:
New York Senator Hillary Clinton attracts 40% of the vote and so does Illinois Senator Barack Obama. John Edwards is a very distant third at 11% while 3% say they’d vote for some other candidate and 6% are not sure.
With Edwards now out, who knows where that 17% will go. It’s anybody’s ball game, and that’s why a knocking on thousands of doors is so important — turnout could decide this state.
But let’s take a look at Clinton’s home state of New York. Public Policy Polling finds
Hillary Clinton 45
Barack Obama 33
John Edwards 10Obama is closing in a little on Clinton in New York. Most recent polling had shown her over 50% in the state she represents in the Senate. The key finding here is that he gets only 44% of the black vote in the state. That leaves plenty of room to improve between now and next Tuesday’s primary, and if he can do that and pick up the majority of the support John Edwards had exhibited in the state, New York could be much more closely contested than might have been anticipated.
Yikes — that’s got to be scary for the Clinton campaign. Obama isn’t going to win New York, but if he can eat up even half of the delegates there, that could give him a significant edge. The crucial thing is keeping her under 50% in her home state– that would be a major blow to the Clinton campaign, especially if the campaign lasts past February 5th.
So get out there and organize!
davidlarall says
Sorry to disappoint you, but I was under the impression that NY was one of those “all or nothing” states when it came time to award delegates.
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p>http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes….
alexwill says
NY may be winner take all for the GOP, but that is not allowed in our party.
sabutai says
I imagine Obama’s lead in Illinois is not much more than that. This is in some ways a national primary, and the previous state-by-state vote-parking is coming around to reflect an awareness of the race. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any variance in candidates’ vote totals on Feb 5th to be strongly linked to demographics, but run generally similar state-to-state.
davesoko says
and decide to take the polling that’s been done seriously, Obama is waaaaay farther ahead in IL than Clinton is in NY.
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p>http://www.pollster.com/08-IL-…
sabutai says
Wasn’t at RCP. I could be wrong.
leonpowe says
Sort of like the Iowa blip that people thought would sustain itself in NH – not!
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p>In the end, a number of the big states will look similar to Florida’s results, William Schneider said last night that if the Florida demographic voting patterns play out similarly in the Super Tuesday states, Clinton will win most of them, save Illinois, maybe Georgia and a caucus state or two.