After the craziness of Super Tuesday, here’s what we know (or think we know):
- According to the CNN pledged delegate tracker on MyDD, Obama has 635 pledged delegates to Clinton’s 630.
- This does not include NM and CA, who are still counting theirs. It is reasonable to assume once those two states are apportioned, Hillary will and Obama will each have about 790 pledged delegates. If anything, Hillary’s narrow win in California may make the numbers 800-780.
- It takes 2,025 votes to win the Democratic nomination.
- Of the 4,049 delegates at the convention, 3,253 will be pledged.
- On Super Tuesday, the candidates essentially split the vote.
- While Obama is out-raising Hillary, she isn’t as poorly off as some Obamamites want to think..
- Despite the expectations game, neither Hillary or Obama are likely to dip below 40% in the near future.
- Gallup’s tracking poll is showing that Obama’s momentum has stalled.
We also know that:
Here’s where the numbers come from:
|Scenario||Clinton dgs.||Obama dgs.||Remaining dgs.|
So Hillary needs 1,039 delegates to secure the nomination. Obama need 1,126. There are 1,673 remaining pledged delegates gained through primaries and caucuses.
Even with 60% of the vote, Hillary Clinton cannot win the nomination without capturing at least 49 more “superdelegates”.
It is ridiculous to think after this campaign that Hillary or Obama are going to capture 60% of the remaining vote. But we are in a zone right now where it all comes down to superdelegates. It does not come down to the remaining voters, but to who captures these elected officials or party functionaries.
I’m not saying that I like it, but I am saying that’s what it is.