Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Democrats pickup congressional seat in Mississippi

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Democrat Travis Childers won a Republican-held seat in a Mississippi special election Tuesday. This is a stunning upset in the state’s First Congressional District, which George Bush carried with 62 percent in 2004. The election was to fill a vacancy created when Roger Wicker, the district’s former Congressman, was appointed to the U.S. Senate to fill Trent Lott’s seat. Lott, a Republican, resigned in December in order to become a lobbyist.

Republicans had run ads against Childers tying him to Sen. Barack Obama. These would appear to have backfired, as Childers won with more than 53 percent of the vote. Democrats now hold three of Mississippi’s four congressional seats.

This is the third Democratic pickup of a Republican-held seat since the 2006 elections. In Illinois Democrat Bill Foster now holds the seat of former speaker Denny Hastert and in Louisiana Democrat Don Cazayeaux took the seat of former Rep. Richard Baker.

For actual results, and a flavor of the district, click here : http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f…

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  2. I’m not really sure how this could be painted as evidence of Obama’s coattails. After all, to my knowledge Obama never campaigned for Childers and was not on the ballot with him. One thing it does show, however, is that the nasty anti-Obama campaign in that district did not rub off on the Democrat there.

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    p>However, the more important thing it shows is how hard the Republicans are going to fall this year, regardless of our Presidential nominee. It’s hard to believe, but it looks like there’s a chance a two “wave” elections for the same party in a row in 2006/2008. That’s very rare.  

    • You just saw how this can be painted as evidence of Obama’s coat-tails in the post and in my promotion comment.

      <

      p>The question is whether that is a reasonable credible reality-based assertion. Probably not, if you ask me, because who knows. But, maybe, and since I like Obama heck, why not moot it as a possibility, because it certainly is that.

      <

      p>The interesting point is that the Republicans are going down hard in election after election. They better get that Iraq situation cleaned up fast. Sadly, the best spokesperson they appear to have right now is Douglas Feith aka The Dumbest Fucking Guy on the Planet, in the words of Tommy Franks. Oh dear.

      • What about Brock Olivo of social studies fame?

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        p>Seriously, though, if 3 of 4 congresspeople from Mississippi are Democrats, is any state not a swing state?

        • But,

          <

          p>MS-01 elected a Democrat.  71% white, 27% black, equal mix of urban, suburban, rural.  Cook PVI R+10

          <

          p>MS-02 elected a Democrat.  35% white, 64% black, don’t know density numbers.  Cook PVI D+10

          <

          p>MS-03 elected a Republican.  64% white, 33% black, don’t know density numbers.  Cook PVI R+13

          <

          p>MS-04 elected a Democrat.  75% white, 23% black, higher density than other parts of Mississippi.  Cook PVI R+16

          <

          p>

          <

          p>Is it possible that Obama could be competitive in Mississippi.  It’s clear that enough of the 61% of Mississippians who are white are voting for Democrats — check out MS-01 and MS-04.  I can’t imagine Obama taking Mississippi, but I could imagine making the GOP sweat a little bit, and maybe forcing a McCain interest group to spend some money there.

      • Oh, we’re just having fun đŸ™‚

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        p>I know, I know!

        <

        p>While they need to get the Iraq mess cleaned up fast, they also have to clean up the economy mess, the ethics mess, the… (etc. etc.). Needless to say, they’ve got problems.

  3. Took Hastert’s seat.  Won in Louisiana.  Won in conservative Mississippi.  Winning seats like this really says something about the state of play between the parties.  The GOP is on the defensive everywhere and we have to press this advantage home in coming months.  If we could just settle our nomination and start coming together we will be one scary proposition for the fall.  The point is to make the November contest a referendum on eight failed years and preventing another four of em.  Obama as President and 60 in the Senate.  Gotta dream!

  4. Childers immediately rejected the notion that Obama had endorsed his candidacy, a sign that even some Democrats may be worried about being too closely associated to the frontrunner in the race for the Democratic nomination.

    “Sen. Obama hasn’t endorsed my candidacy,” Childers said after the ad began to air. “I have not been in contact with his campaign, nor has he been in contact with mine.”

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    p>http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITI…

    <

    p>However, this post was a nice attempt at Obama spin after a 41 point loss in WV.

    • That is the real point is about this big win.  

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      p>Its time to start coming together and stop being pissed at each other.

  5. Howard Dean promised money & effort in places like Alaska & Mississippi when he ran for DNC Chair back in December of 2004… I didn’t think it would pay off until 2010 or 2012.

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    p>This is a sweet win.  It’s also bringing America one step closer to getting health coverage for every American.

  6. The 1st CD that Travis Childers just won voted, for the most part, for Hillary in the MI primary.

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    p>Yet Obama was hung around his neck by the Rethugs. Hmmmm. I wonder why?

  7. i don’t know anything about childers other than the snippet of his ad played on the news “im’ pro-gun and pro-life…”  always nice to have another D on the list, but just how D is he?  another “states rights” type?

    • He’s a “D” that will vote for a “D” for Speaker — that’s the most important thing.

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      p>That said, I doubt if we talked to him on the issues we’d agree on much when it came to gun control, gay rights, etc. He’s solidly on the conservative side of the party. However, for a middle-aged white male to still be a Democrat in Mississippi today means that he probably will vote more with the Democratic mainstream on economic issues (though I don’t know for sure).

        • so you’ll vote for anyone with a “D” after their name, regardless of their governmental philosophy or how they’re likely to vote on anything?  then why do you care so much who the democratic presidential nominee is?  after all, they’re both Dems.  oh i get it.  if it’s “your” criteria, it’s not a litmus test.  i see.

          • but I vote for Democrats because I know those are my personal views and have no desire to have them codified in our Constitution.

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            p>Your whole “vote for any D” point is flawed. We have a primary for the purpose of selecting the flavor of D that we get to put against the flavor of R that is running.

            <

            p>Once the consensus renders the D, then your either with us or against us. Or do you go Nader at that point?

            • the first thing i start doing is strategizing how to work with that person.  because once the legislative session begins, there is no longer the monolithic “us” you describe.  i think you know that dems don’t automatically vote along party lines.  why shouldn’t i size this guy up?  or better to ask, why aren’t you sizing him up too?  he’ll be voting soon enough on both of our freedoms and interests.

              • We got Blue Dogs holding up the New GI Bill. Could you help us with that?

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                p>From IAVA

                Dear John,

                Last week, despite enormous momentum, a vote on the GI Bill was delayed by a small group of Democrats in the House. Believe it or not, they’re concerned about the cost of the bill, which amounts to less than 0.5% of war funding for the year. This is Washington ineffectiveness at its worst.

                We’ve been pounding the pavement here in DC every day, meeting with all the key players in the fight for a new GI Bill, and today we need your support.

                Please take a minute now to call your Representative, and urge them to show their support for a new GI Bill by voting to fund it this week. We’ve included some talking points at the bottom of this email that you can use during your call.

                Despite deep bi-partisan support, the endorsement of every major veterans’ organization, and studies showing that a new GI Bill is a fiscally sound investment in our nation’s future, a few members of the House are standing in its way at this late, critical stage.

                If you haven’t already, please take a minute now to call your Representative and tell them that you support education benefits for the men and women coming home from Iraq and Afghanistan.

                The new GI Bill (HR 5740) has broad bi-partisan support, and leading Democrats and Republicans have been fighting for it since day one. But thanks to this small group that is mounting an ill-advised opposition, the vote is going to be close, and we need your help to make sure Congress does the right thing.

                In our view, the GI Bill is a cost of war, and a smart investment in one of the most motivated, deserving groups of people our country has to offer.

                So please take a minute now to tell your Representative to show real support for our troops and veterans by supporting the new GI Bill.

                After your call, please take a minute to tell us about it here.

                           Thank you for your continued support.
                           Sincerely,
                           Patrick Campbell
                           Iraq Veteran
                           Legislative Director
                           Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America

                • I sent her an e-mail asking her to nudge the blue dogs. What else can we do?

                • contact people you might know living in the blue dog districts and have them contact those legislators and write letters to the editor.  you might try writing a whole diary on this issue to get the word out more.  you never know who might read and link to it.  i’ll be honest, i didn’t even know this legislation was being held up.  i’m sure there are lots more ignorant people like me who would be willing to help if they knew help was needed.

    • He is socially conservative but he is also opposed to lopsided tax cuts, supports expanding Medicare and Medicaid, supports increasing education funding, and has a solid relationship and support from the local black community and has built an excellent record on civil rights issues.

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      p>Hey, its Mississippi and we will take what we can get. Not to mention its above all else a vote for Pelosi, Hoyer, Clyburn, Emmanuel, Barney Frank on the Finance Committee, Henry Waxman on Oversight, Conyers on Justice, Rangel on Ways and Means. I could go on. But we have some good people on those committees, Wasxman and Frank have been especially effective, and I’d prefer them to any of the GOP blowhards we could get.  

      • that the main thing, at this point anyway, is his Being There for leadership votes.  but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t size him up so we know what to expect later, when actual law making commences.  thx for the info!

    • the choice wasn’t him or Barney Frank.  The choice was him or a pro-life, pro-choice, anti-SCHIP, pro-Iraq War, anti-environmental regulation, ……

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      p>There is something to be said for taking the lesser of two evils.  This is MS-01 not MA-01.  Instead of getting zero votes on liberal issues, we’ll get some votes.  From MS-01, can we reasonably expect any more than that in 2008?

        • The Iraq War was a crucial issues in this race. Childers for all his social conservatism was still a solid anti war candidate and he ran as one. Which is great since we won using an anti-war candidate, using an anti-war strategy, in a seemingly pro-war district (R+10) and still won! 100 years McCain wont be able to win at the rate he’s going on this issue alone!

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