huh, thought Oregon was a done deal — 5 points, tied among those who have voted already, according to American Research Group (which I’m not swearing to their track record, I do think their male/female ratio, 48-52, is interesting given earlier races of 55+ female votes). Kentucky remains uncompetitive, which I think both camps would agree on.
blips do happen at the end of races — Jerry Brown upset Bill Clinton in Connecticut in ’92, Senator Kennedy won a number of states after President Carter was understood to have wrapped up the nomination.
but we shall see
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May 16, 2008 – Kentucky Democratic Primary Preference
Kentucky
Democrats May 14-15
Clinton 65%
Obama 29%
Someone else* 4%
Undecided 2%
* John Edwards and “uncommitted” are on the ballot in Kentucky – both lines are combined here
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 56% to 38% among men (45% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 72% to 21%.
Clinton leads 73% to 21% among white voters (87% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 91% to 7% among African American voters (11% of likely Democratic primary voters).
Clinton leads 59% to 35% among voters age 18 to 49 (46% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 71% to 23% among voters age 50 and older.
12% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 50% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.
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May 16, 2008 – Oregon Democratic Primary Preference
Oregon
Democrats May 14-16
Clinton 45%
Obama 50%
Undecided 5%
Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 57% to 39% among men (48% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 51% to 44%.
Obama leads 51% to 44% among white voters (88% of likely Democratic primary voters). Clinton leads 50% to 46% among Hispanic voters (6% of likely Democratic primary voters).
Obama leads 55% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (49% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 52% to 45% among voters age 50 and older.
Clinton and Obama are tied at 49% each among voters saying they have returned their ballots (58% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Obama leads 52% to 40% among voters saying they will definitely return their ballots by May 20th.
20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
May 16
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p>A Surprise About Obama, Clinton, and Turnout
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p>Conventional wisdom has it that Barack Obama’s primary victories are based on his ability to increase turnout.
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p>A look at what happens when voter turnout increases in the primaries proves that this notion is wrong. In fact, Obama has had his greatest primary (and caucus) victories when turnouts have been low.
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p>Obama received 66% of the primary vote in Georgia when 22.7% of all registered voters in the state voted in the Democratic primary. In Virginia, Obama received 64% of the primary vote when 21.1% of all registered voters in the state voted in the Democratic primary. In Mississippi, Obama received 61% of the primary vote when 24.4% of all registered voters in the state voted in the Democratic primary.
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p>Hillary Clinton received 67% of the primary vote in West Virginia when 30.1% of all registered voters in the state voted in the Democratic primary. In Pennsylvania, Clinton received 55% of the vote when 27.7% of all registered voters in the state voted in the Democratic primary. In Ohio, Clinton received 54% of the primary vote when 30.5% of all registered voters in the state voted in the primary.
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p>There are exceptions (such as Arkansas, Tennessee, and Rhode Island), but Clinton, and not Obama, tends to win in the states where turnouts are higher. The relationship is strong enough that Democratic primary turnout can be predicted using Clinton’s share of the vote.
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p>–Dick Bennett
From pollster.com :
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p>”Two of the three polls conducted by American Research Group (ARG) were biased and one of SurveyUSA’s three polls showed bias. One ARG poll showed that Clinton and Obama were tied; the other, seven days later, showed Senator Clinton ahead by 20 points.”
again not vouching for Suffolk, but 2 polls now call it a close race after most called it a 15-20 point race. What’s up with that?
I heard on NPR this morning that this crowd on Sunday morning was estimated at 80,000. Ben Smith reported 75,000.
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p>
Loved visiting there.
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p>But as we know, crowds in national elections are like signs locally, not indicative of votes, like the great crowds George Mcgovern drew when he was running for President, or more recently, the long winding line to get in to see Senator Obama in Boston the night before the Massachusetts primary. You would have thought he’d win overwhelmingly here.
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p>So let’s see what the two votes bring ..
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p>On another note, don’t you think that Puerto Rico should have moved up its primary — say to January or February instead of June 1. These candidates deserve a nice warm respite in the winter after Iowa and NH!
That winding line led right to the polling booth.
Boston: Obama 53%, Clinton 45%
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p>Hillary won Mass. I give her props. I am not here to diddle the facts, but let’s take a clear look, shall we?
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p>PR is a hard pitch because the don’t vote in the GE. Nevada will have to suffice.
and don’t tell me that it was all Boston residents at that rally …
I wasn’t trying to be literal.
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p>A month ago, I would have bit down. Today, peace out.