I was surprised to see that no one had put this up sooner. Last year, I put myself on the McCain Campaign’s e-mail list because I think it’s incredibly useful to know what’s coming out of their HQ, and I suggest everyone who reads this blog, no matter whom you support should subscribe to get e-mails from both campaigns and from both Democratic and Republican National Committees.
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They put Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, Indiana, Alaska and Montana as “Solidly Republican.”
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p>Really?
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p>As of the timestamp on this post, according to e-v, we have:
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p>VA: BHO +1
NC: BHO -2
GA: BHO -1
MS: BHO -6
IN: BHO +1
AK: BHO -4
MT: BHO -8
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p>With Bob Barr in the race, look for libertarians to peel away from the GOP in Montana and Alaska, and Bob Barr’s from Georgia and will peel some McCain voters away there too. Mississippi polls all rely on turnout models that are likely to undercount a very motivated black population. Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana are virtually tied.
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p>That’s 66 EVs that they called “solidly Republican” which are anything but. They also failed to include Washington, Maine, Connecticut, New Jersey, or Wisconsin in “solidly Democratic” in spite of polls and congressional trends and history which show that they are solid blue states, worth an additional 47 EVs.
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p>WA: BHO +15
ME: BHO +22
CT: BHO +3 [all others have BHO +12 or more]
NJ: BHO +8
WI: BHO +11
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p>But there’s more. They called the following states “battleground” instead of for the GOP: Arizona, West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky. Those aren’t battleground states. If Obama wins any of those four, he’ll have won in a landslide.
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p>And still more. Changing the map: California. You must be kidding. Obama is up 20 points, far more than most Dems win California. Furthermore, California is an extremely expensive state in which to compete, due to a large number of different media markets. McCain simply doesn’t have a prayer in Cali, but I do hope he invests plenty of resources trying. McCain is a natural fit in the Southwest? Well sure, he’ll take Arizona in spite of it’s recent push blue, but New Mexico? A state which is likely to landslide elect a Dem Senator and perhaps all three Dem House members? What’s his “unique” appeal, that he’s taken every position on immigration including both for and against his own danged bill? “Strength with Latinos and record on immigration” isn’t worth jack squat since both of those are likely to hinder him with both “border fence” and Latino voters.
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p>Bah. If this is his strategy, he’s hosed. He’s simply got to play really good defense and make sure he takes Florida, the Southeast, and Ohio and/or Michigan. The rest is nonsense.