Alert reader Cannoneo points us to some interesting polling data dug out by Andrew Sullivan from a recent Rasmussen poll:
But among the critical undecideds, the Palin pick made only 6 percent more likely to vote for McCain; and it made 31 percent less likely to vote for him. 49 percent said it would have no impact, and 15 percent remained unsure. More to the point: among undecideds, 59 percent said Palin was unready to be president. Only 6 percent said she was. If the first criterion for any job is whether you’re ready for it, this is a pretty major indictment of the first act of McCain’s presidential leadership….
From this first snap-shot (and unsettled) impression, Palin has helped McCain among Republicans, left Democrats unfazed, but moved the undecideds against him quite sharply. I totally understand why.
Of course, it’s early. But first impressions matter, and those numbers are fairly dramatic. If unsurprising.
We’ve been hearing a lot about readiness to lead and executive experience. But it’s interesting to think about what executive leadership means in the political sphere. I think there are at least four qualities that are critical (not claiming there aren’t others; these are just the ones that come to mind): 1) the ability to select top quality staff and appointees 2) the ability to motivate, oversee and keep staff and other constituencies focused on key goals and priorities 3) perfect pitch in communicating to a variety of audiences – legislators, the electorate, staff, other nations etc. 4) sound judgment and decision-making.
<
p>The VP selection gives us a window onto how Obama and McCain may perform on the first point. In Biden, Obama selected a senior stateman of his party with great depth of knowledge and experience in areas that complement his own. McCain chose an inexperienced young Governor who offers a fresh face and conservative chops with evangelicals – hard not to see it as a political pick, rather than a quality appointment. (So much for putting country first…)
<
p>The conduct of Obama’s and McCain’s campaigns gives us some insight on how the two candidates might perform on the second point. Obama’s campaign has been well-managed and highly effective – taking him from a little known, insurgent candidacy to being the nominee of his party and raising vast sums of money. McCain was able to capture his party’s nomination but struggled with financial woes and staff shake ups along the way.
<
p>I’ll leave it to others to consider the remaining two leadership qualities, but I’m not seeing a McCain advantage on either.
<
p>
After McCain’s remarks about Gerogia, Iran, Iraq, and Russia, wonks argued that McCain’s judgment is reckless. After choosing someone that he hardly vetted — no one from his campaign visited Alaska and McCain barely knew Palin — it will be clear to the less-informed that McCain’s judgment is reckless.
<
p>Couple that with his short fuse and you have someone eminently unqualified to be President.
The American people are pretty clear on the job of the VP even if the proposed candidate isn’t. The Veep is the insurance policy that keeps the nation going should something happen to the president. First-grade stuff, actually. On a gut level, the choice feels reckless. McCain has demonstrated terrible judgment. He is the one who consistently characterizes today’s world as so dangerous that it takes extraordinary experience (err, um, his, of course) to navigate this nation safely. A part-time mayor and 22-month governor with a bachelor’s in journalism hasn’t the wisdom or the knowledge to do so–and people know that.
<
p>They also know she wouldn’t have been chosen had she been a male with similar experience; she was chosen because of her pretty face. And THAT sort of sexism is an insult to people everywhere.
dead heat
Really, at this pace, gary, you’ll wear down the gears.
At least as prescient as the ‘favorability’ polls. Spin yours as you will, and thanks for the respect for my gears.
I’ve said that when his results have favored my candidate as well. The methodology is just not reliable.
it implies that Palin is both black and female…
too good to pass up. đŸ˜‰
Palin’s not inexperienced, she’s “different” and “refreshing.”
trying to grab a snapshot overnight after a major announcement is hit or miss at best. Rasmussen is a good poll, but Gallup is generally considered the most accurate for these types.
<
p>http://www.gallup.com/poll/109…
<
p>Gallup shows that Palin’s selection does not really hurt Rep – but it sure doesn’t help. But I think the most telling statistic is the comparison of Americans perceptions of the VP picks ability to lead. Palin ranks right up there with Mr. Quayle.
Dan Kennedy has been writing about his latest effort HERE.
<
p>This reaction reminds me of Larry O’Donnell and his weird, visceral appearances on Firing Line (HERE). When the panel was discussing Romney’s Mormonism, he went bonkers with a a vile diatribe about cults as has ever been on national television. But besides being hateful it was the emeotion behind it.
<
p>Is Sullivan crossing a similar line?
<
p>Bush Derangement Syndrome is taken, Palin Deragncment Syndrome doesn’t have the same ring….
Now Andrew Sullivan is deranged because he writes about an internet rumor that had the internetz abuzz yesterday? Big deal.
<
p>It’s a little early to label people who are asking questions and speculating “deranged.” Let’s save that until a bunch of rich Democrats form a group known as Swift Boat Veterans for Truth Patriotic Voters for Truth and bankroll the publication of a slanderous tell-all on Palin’s ersatz pregnancy.
<
p>Grow a thicker skin.