(Cross-posted from Blue News Tribune.)
The race for mayor is over. It ended yesterday.
There was a narrow window for Sam Yoon or Michael Flaherty to create buzz and emerge as the challenger to Menino. In 2006, a poll swung 27 points between August and September, all 27 points going to Deval Patrick. At the time, I didn’t think that was possible, but it held up through the primary results.
It is not yet August, of course, so I could be wrong, and I’d be happy to be. But in 2006 the governorship was open. With Baker’s announcement, and Cahill’s, we have, in effect, two primary races (Deval faces no Democratic opposition [yet], but can Cahill pull people away?). The Globe doesn’t really care who wins the mayor’s race; with its depleted resources, it would probably just as well keep dealing with Menino and his people. The Herald, which can probably still make hay within Boston city limits, does not seem to have picked a horse. (And sorry, Kevin McCrae, but I don’t see you gaining traction.)
In short, the governor’s race means little air in the room to be had, and the Globe and Herald are breathing through inhalers.
So, in my arrogant opinion, the options for Yoon and Flaherty are:
1. Keep campaigning in their inoffensive way, pointing out differences with Menino, and hope to emerge as the logical successor.
2. Ratchet up the negativity. Be aware that you may be “pulling an Edwards,” going after Hillary Clinton and allowing Obama to be the sunny alternative.
3. Have a meeting that results in one dropping out and supporting the other.
Here’s the risk of option three: the one who keeps running still loses. The other has the high ground of “doing the right thing” and can leverage that (and his clean slate) in 2013.
All of which adds up to the Nash equilibrium we have now.
Unless one of you wants to surprise us.
I suppose one of you could endorse Menino as well, at an awkward “Well, I made my point” press conference.
If I’m Patrick, I put out the whisper that I’m behind Menino. Use the Mayor’s race to build up my Boston crew and run them through their paces. When the ax meets the grindstone, I’m working with many known knowns and known unknowns. Plus, the mayor will owe me.
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p>If I’m not Menino, I give it my best clean shot and then turn my allegiance to Patrick. Most of the crew will follow along.
If I’m Yoonerty and you do that, I start talking “machine” and see if anybody cares.
Dissing machine politics in Boston? Sucka move.
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OK.
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p>Maybe the reporter would be young …
I always thought that Yoon and Flaherty entered the race with the assumption that Menino would not run again, but were both already to invested in the race to drop out after it was clear they were wrong. Of course, both have denied this was the case, but I don’t necessarily believe that.
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p>It seems to me that Flaherty has already choosen path #2 and Yoon path #1. Either is a reasonable approach.
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p>Flaherty’s big problem is that he increasingly appears to be 100% under the thumb of the firefighters’ union. That could hurt him not just in this race, but in 2013 as well.
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Menino would run again, and they would be the sole challenger.
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p>I think this is one reason neither one developed a clear “Vote for me” argument.
Wishful Thinking from the 5th floor
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p>Come on HR 5th Floor.. The race is not over.. It has just begun.
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p>All you need to do is go through any of the Boston Neighborhoods and you will realize very quickly that not only is there a race, but there are a ton of Non Menino house signs and bumper stickers..
There is also an undercurrent of voices all consistently saying “Its Time”.. I commend Flaherty, McCrae and Yoon for being smart & bold enough to leave their current positions and put it on the line for their beliefs and the betterment of the City.
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p> Again, wishful thinking, but it is not going to be that easy this time to ignore these very capable challengers.
And you’d know that if you read Lit Drop’s Good news from Yoon for the other candidates running from mayor
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I hope he’s kidding about that.
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p>Re: the followup question, you have to save Menino, because he’s the only one the firefighters might bypass.
What happened yesterday that ended the mayoral race? The only thing I can maybe deduce is that it has something to do with another candidate announcing for Governor. Are you suggesting Boston voters (or at least newspapers) can only handle one big race at a time? I doubt that’s true, especially when one’s this year and one’s next year and one’s for the city and one’s statewide.
So the governor’s race kicked off.
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p>But yes, voters have limited time for politics — normal voters, that is, not geeks like us.
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p>Where will the press’s energy be? Not on this race.
Smart cookie that guy. He saw the drift coming and went to alt media.
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p>Plus, the kids. Well,and me. I listen to FNX. I’m 44.
I hope they asked him about Robotogate on ‘FNX.
which it will very soon, the heat will be back on the mayor’s race. especially when fall hits. and like christopher said, the governor’s race is next year.
Please name the week and/or the stories during which this race was hot. Once the poll was released showing Menino at 53% (I think), all the air went out of the room.
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p>There was anticipation early on of a competitive race, but sorry, none of the challengers has delivered.
It is amazing that after everything we have witnessed in the last few years in politics, both locally and nationally, that people still cling to this notion that one or two stories in the MSM means the race is done. I totally agree with foreverdem on this one; the Gov candidate announcements are the hot new thing right now but with the election over a year off, and a looming race for what is arguably the 2nd most politically powerful position in Mass. politics up for grabs, it would be insane to think that any media outlet was going to walk away, let alone the public in and around Boston.
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p>Another crucial piece that rarely gets mentioned is that a LOT of people have issues with the menino administration, especially in the non-profit world. Everyone knows tommy has thin skin and a long memory (ask Ray Flynn) which is why quite a few folks in the non-profit world will tell you one-on-one that they think that one of the challengers would be better for the city and for what they and their orgs do, but would never say it out loud for fear of reprisal.
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p>I think it is sad that good people doing often thankless work, in some cases work that government should be doing or at least doing more of, feel that this administration places more value on keeping everyone in line rather than supporting those who provide critically needed services for residents. Whether you believe this to be the case or not this perception is out there and it is undercutting a lot of good that could be done.
OK, I brought up the media, so I’ll take that point. I might dispute it, another time, but time is short.
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p>I don’t see evidence of any fear, but let’s assume for a moment that city employees do fear the Menino. Certainly the general electorate has no reason to fear him, and they decide the election, no?
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p>One more thing: I don’t ask Ray Flynn anything. Not since he supported Bush.
I know people in non-profits, and I don’t see any evidence to back up your claim. I really don’t believe this idea that there are many people who are afraid to criticize Menino.
I am not saying Michael Flaherty, Sam Yoon, or Kevin McCrae are bad candidates. I am not supporting Menino either. And as I’ve noted elsewhere, I don’t live in the city, I work in it.
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p>But I am calling what I see as a political observer, and I see a non-race. All the anticipation has come to nothing, and the candidates, more aware of that than anyone else, are merely running out the clock. They will do nothing between now and the election that might offend a 2013 voter.
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p>Think I’m wrong? OK, fine.
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What we need in this city is a pointing fingers tax. We could make a million if we included campaign bloggers
i would have imagined that has a different meaning these days.
because it can just kill the “let’s win” buzz of good campaign workers. This is no way to get more people involved in local politics…by announcing the race is over. In that regard, I hope I’m wrong and that it does just the opposite, and they go like gangbusters to win. A good campaign should deliver the best person for the job. BTW, there’s nothing personal about this- whether I like the incumbent or not…I just like to see everyone challenged, because the unchallenged get lazy, complacent and entitled. Competition is good for everybody.
Thank you. This post is not only unfortunate, but just a careless script designed to take away from 3 hard working candidates who not only have challenged this Mayor, but who anyone of them can win. I can not wait till November to prove how wrong this post is.. Ironically it was started from someone who lives in Medford and supported by HR 5th floor who works for the Mayor..
I lived in Medford for one year, 14 years ago. I grew up in Somerville and now live in the suburbs, commuting daily to the city.
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p>Not that any of that is relevant.
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p>Careless? I might plead guilty to that, because the campaigns have failed to make themselves something to care about, in my opinion.
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HR’s Kevin has already said he does not work for the Mayor, so the burden on you is to prove he’s lying. You’ll have to start by definitively identifying him since aside from a reasonable assumption that his first name is in fact Kevin we have no way of knowing in the normal course of things. The original diarist is certainly entitled to offer his analysis, though I stand by my own previous questioning of that analysis. Frankly, you have not presented yourself very well in this discussion.
Would you believe the opposite, though? If someone came on here and led a cheer for a campaign, would that really help?
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p>Part of the reason I wrote this is to provoke a response. Let those campaign workers prove me wrong. I’d be happy to see that.
while perhaps well-intended, feels like a mind-screw for the people who are working hard for their candidates. It’s just demotivating…especially coming from someone who doesn’t live in the city. You wonder why the hell you’re bothering if the race is already over. Personally, I think it’s better to let the chips fall where they may. Just saying. (former Eastie resident)
I’ll admit some hesitation about writing it. But if my opinion could affect this race, we’d have had a freewheeling race for months now.
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p>No “mind-screw” intended, but blog on and all that.
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p>If a signle blog posting will kill the buzz, then I would have to say the campaign workers – paid or volunteers – aren’t particularily committed to begin with.
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p>Any time someone counts out my candidiate, it tends to make me work harder, not walk away.
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p>Finally – if any campaign fails to catch the public’s attention – its a campaign failure not a media failure. Flaherty and Yoon have built grassroots operations -if those operations begin to deliver then the Globe and Herald and other media will write the story. Seems some posting here want the media to build their candidates campaign. To me that’s backasswards.
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p>Disclaimer – my union has endorsed Mayor Menino and I will be working hard for his re-election.