With a week to go, I imagine many posters and observers have an opinion on how their candidate – or any candidate – will win the day next week.
Here are my scenarios:
COAKLEY
Wins with last minute TV ad buy from Emily’s List attacking Capuano (travel, PMA, etc.), huge phone bank effort targeting women (especially 24-45), avoiding and miscues AND benefits from a Capuano ‘food fight’ at tonight’s or tomorrow night’s debate.
CAPUANO
Wins with tremendous field organization, especially in Somerville, Cambridge, and elsewhere in 8th District; surges with undecideds as Coakley blows so-called lead due to ‘Rose Garden’ campaign strategy and negative media (Geoghan, Patriot Act); is clear winner at debates.
PAGLIUCA
No scenario for victory IMHO. Too late to switch message back to jobs. Healthcare ad gambit, terrible press (Burker King), soft nature of support (i.e., couch potatoes and closet Republicans) and lack of voter base dooms campaign to single digits.
KHAZEI
Only one scenario. Both Coakley and Capuano utterly implode through media-driven scandals, horrific performances at debate, and secret election day strategy of mobilizing every wide-eyed idealist in MA.
I look forward to the responses.
and thanks for adding countu-by-county breakdown against the post I put up the other day. Should be interesting towards the end.
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p>Lanugo