Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

  • Shop
  • Subscribe to BMG
  • Contact
  • Log In
  • Front Page
  • All Posts
  • About
  • Rules
  • Events
  • Register on BMG

MA Unemployment Rate Continues to Drop

December 17, 2009 By johnk

In a bit of good news the unemployment rate in Massachusetts hit its lowest levels since the Summer at 8.8%.  Unemployment peaked at 9.3% in September and has been on a downward trend since that time.

Another sign that Massachusetts might have bottomed sooner than the nation and is on the path to recovery?  I don’t want to over sell this, but it’s good news for the State.

Month     Rate

September 9.3

October   8.9  

November  8.8  

Please share widely!
fb-share-icon
Tweet
0
0

Filed Under: User

Comments

  1. fdr08 says

    December 17, 2009 at 10:09 am

    Also per an article in today’s Globe State tax revenues appear to be bouncing back. If it can result in no further cuts in FY10 that would be great, but FY11 still is bleak. Still anticipating a local aid or Chap.70 cut for FY11.

  2. stomv says

    December 17, 2009 at 10:18 am

    Is a change of 0.1 statistically significant for the MA unemployment rate?

    • alexswill says

      December 17, 2009 at 11:12 am

      my first thought is in regards to the methodology.  They touch upon it by saying their data comes from a “monthly sample of households.”  Unfortunately, that isn’t very telling as I’m not sure what they are asking in their sample.  Unemployment numbers tend to have a difficult time taking those who have stopped looking for work (for whatever reason) into consideration.  If that’s the case, a .1% change could simply indicate that a sample of the unemployed have stopped looking for work period and are therefore no longer part of the “work force.”  That could seemingly make the unemployment numbers look lower.

      • johnk says

        December 17, 2009 at 12:12 pm

        The numbers from the release:

        <

        p>

        The labor force grew by 10,800 in November with 15,700 more Massachusetts residents employed and 5,100 fewer residents unemployed. In November, 3,151,800 residents were employed and 302,400 residents were unemployed. At 3,454,300, the labor force was up 24,700 from November 2008 with 69,500 fewer residents employed and 94,100 more residents unemployed.

    • medfieldbluebob says

      December 17, 2009 at 12:41 pm

      Since this is a proportion (unemployed/workforce), it has a 95% confidence interval equal to:

      <

      p>p + or – (1.96 * Square Root of ((p*(1-p))/N))

      <

      p>where p is the October 2009 unemployment rate (8.94) and N is the work force. With a workforce of 3 or so million, this is a very small number.  The confidence interval is 8.91% to 8.97%. Since the November number is 8.8%, looks like it is a statistically significant result.

      <

      p>A wider 6 sigma limit (3 standard deviations instead of 1.96) would round off to 8.89 to 8.99. Still looks significant.

      <

      p>(Somebody please check my math. Be aware the numbers are in decimals not percents, so 8.94 is .0894)

      <

      p>The raw data is here:

      <

      p>http://data.bls.gov/PDQ/servle…

      <

      p>The confidence interval formula is here:

      <

      p>http://davidmlane.com/hypersta…

      <

      p>or wikipedia, too, I believe.

      <

      p>You could do a control chart back to 1999 … oops! There’s the bell and that’s all the class time we have for today.

      <

      p>

      • stomv says

        December 17, 2009 at 8:05 pm

        After all, this isn’t a pure random sample from a distribution.  This involves humans, and so you get additional errors you don’t get from flipping a biased coin.  The CI for this number has to include those errors, which might have statistical bias, be additive, etc.

      • roarkarchitect says

        December 18, 2009 at 7:39 am

        Are the statistics seasonally adjusted ?  

        • johnk says

          December 18, 2009 at 8:59 am

          It unadjusted rate is actually lower 8.4

Recommended Posts

  • No posts liked yet.

Recent User Posts

Predictions Open Thread

December 22, 2022 By jconway

This is why I love Joe Biden

December 21, 2022 By fredrichlariccia

Garland’s Word

December 19, 2022 By terrymcginty

Some Parting Thoughts

December 19, 2022 By jconway

Beware the latest grift

December 16, 2022 By fredrichlariccia

Thank you, Blue Mass Group!

December 15, 2022 By methuenprogressive

Recent Comments

  • blueeyes on Beware the latest griftSo where to, then??
  • Christopher on Some Parting ThoughtsI've enjoyed our discussions as well (but we have yet to…
  • Christopher on Beware the latest griftI can't imagine anyone of our ilk not already on Twitter…
  • blueeyes on Beware the latest griftI will miss this site. Where are people going? Twitter?…
  • chrismatth on A valedictoryI joined BMG late - 13 years ago next month and three da…
  • SomervilleTom on Geopolitics of FusionEVERY un-designed, un-built, and un-tested technology is…
  • Charley on the MTA on A valedictoryThat’s a great idea, and I’ll be there on Sunday. It’s a…

Archive

@bluemassgroup on Twitter

Twitter feed is not available at the moment.

From our sponsors




Google Calendar







Search

Archives

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter




Copyright © 2025 Owned and operated by BMG Media Empire LLC. Read the terms of use. Some rights reserved.