Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Predictions Thread Senate Primary

By

1. How many votes will be cast?

In the D Primary of Clinton v. Obama: 1.2 million votes were cast.

In the Niki Tsongas special election, about 53,000 votes in that one Congressional district were cast.  

2. What percentage does each candidate get?

If you win, what is the set list?  

*

Winner gets to write the BMG endorsement for the general election.  Plus the Editors will sing a concert of your favorite songs at your home.  

P.S. Evidently there are 2 other equivalent threads, so if you’re on one of those, it counts for our contest.  

Kate thread

Tyler thread

Please share widely!
fb-share-icon
Tweet
0

Comments

    • Forgot vote total: 350.000 And I am assuming that those who predicted on other BMG threads will put their same predictions on this thread…only fair.

      <

      p>this is fun

      • Pagliucca’s $8 million bought him…3rd place…he can declare victory over the Boston Globe’s and Max Kennedy’s favorite candidate. Mr. Khazei, not to be confused with Kharzai, will break 10 % but still be last.

  5. The turnout for the Democratic Primary will mirror the turnout for the Menino-Flaherty donnybrook, with a total votes cast of 463,701.  The breakdown will be as follows:

    <

    p>Capuano:  38%
    Coakley:  37%
    Khazei:   14%
    Pagliuca: 11%

    <

    p>I’m really looking forward to writing the BMG endorsement for the general election!

  8. Turnout: 165k (Dem primary only)

    <

    p>Cap   43%
    Coak  40%
    Kha   13%
    Pags   4%

    <

    p>Setlist: The Best of Dion and the Belmonts.  You gotta dress the part, too:

    <

    p>I’ll supply the Italian dinner, including apps, wine, pasta, pastries, and espresso.

  11. That is, closest guess without going over?  Or closest overall?

    <

    p>That said – Turnout – 279,581.

    <

    p>Winners –

    <

    p>Capuano – 32%
    Coakley – 30%
    Kahzai – 21%
    Pagliuca – 16%
    Other (the Mickey Mouse vote) – 1%

    <

    p>Brown – 68%
    Robinson – 29%
    Other – 3%

    <

    p>(Do I REALLY get to write the BMG Endorsement?????)

  12. 479,000 ballots cast in the Dem Primary

    <

    p>Capuano – 37
    Coakley – 35
    Khazei – 16
    Pagliuca- 12

    <

    p>Better than average turnout and margin of victory from his base of support along with enough growth in urban areas propels him to a tight victory.

    <

    p>Many highly contested races end up with two candidates grabbing a lion’s share of the vote and this one is no different. Same was true in the special for the 5th congressional race. This time, voters have a more proven candidate to beat the supposed front runner.

  14. 280k votes in the Democratic primary only:

    <

    p>Martha 46%
    Mike 33%
    Alan 16%
    Steve 6%

    <

    p>Question: How do you score this? Sum of deviations? That’s how we used to do it in NH, when we bet on the prexy primary.

  15. Coakley 40%
    Capuano 32%
    Khazei 18%
    Pagliuca 10%

    <

    p>Just a shot in the dark — I’m not staking my reputation on it.

  16. In the D Primary of Clinton v. Obama: 1.2 million votes were cast.

    In the Niki Tsongas special election, about 53,000 votes in that one Congressional district were cast.  

    <

    p>And in the 2006 Dem gubernatorial primary over 900,000 votes were cast.  

    <

    p>So, multiplying the one district voter turnout by 10, 53,000 x 10 = 530000 gives an approximate lower end… and using the 2006 Dem gubernatorial turnout as higher end, I’m going to predict an even 650,000 votes for turnout.

    <

    p>Here’s the results:

    <

    p>Coakley: 45%
    Capuano 27%
    Khazei      21%
    Pagliucca 6%

    <

    p>(that’s not exactly 100%, but it’s after rounding…)

    • I think she will still win (which pains me as a Capuano supporter), but I don’t see her getting 40%.  

  20. 415,00 Dem Turn-out

    <

    p>Coakley- 41%
    Capuano- 29%
    Pags…yes Pags. Money can buy you 17%
    Khazei- 13%

    <

    p>Still going to vote for Cap and turned about 10 votes his way.

  21. Passion wins
    Capuano 35%
    Coakley 33%
    Khazei 21%
    Pagliuca 11%

    <

    p>Turnout 13%

    <

    p>Brown 72%
    Robinson 28%

    <

    p>The majority of the low turnout votes came from diehard Democrats.  Capuano’s numbers among urban, middle-class voters overwhelmed the more casual suburban, statewide support for Coakley.  Mayors were big.  Khazei earned his stripes.  Pags, not so much.

  22. Turnout: 550,000 Democrats

    <

    p>Capuano: 209,000 (38%)
    Coakley: 198,000 (36%)
    Khazei: 88,000 (16%)
    Pagliuca: 55,000 (10%)

    <

    p>Coakley’s strength – wealthy suburbs, particularly in Middlesex County.
    Capuano’s strength – cities (particularly Cambridge, Somerville, Boston) and some hard-core liberal communities.
    Khazei’s strength – young voters who don’t appear at the polls.
    Pagliuca’s strength – people who sit home and watch TV, most will sit home on primary day.

    <

    p>Down in my building lobby was a poster for Jack E. Robinson, advertising him as the only candidate who is pro-life.  This was posted by a resident who is not particularly political, but very loyal to the political agenda of the Catholic Church.  Expect Robinson to do better than conventional wisdom, above 30%.

  23. 335,000 voter turnout

    <

    p>Capuano 37%
    Coakley   35%
    Khazei     19%
    Pagliuca   9%

    <

    p>I will be voting for Alan Khazei and would LOVE to see an upset with him winning….but I think that’s unlikely at this point.

  24. Turnout 470,000

    <

    p>Capuano:  37%
    Coakley:  35%
    Khazei:   19%
    Pagliuca: 9%

    <

    p>Two things I want tomorrow night:
    1) Capuano winning!
    2) Pags staying in single digits. I hate to see a person loose, but if there ever was someone that deserves to be rejected, this is it!  (Sorry for the snark but the one minute ad buys are beginning to annoy me!)

  26. I supported Hillary Clinton, she did not win

    <

    p>I supported Ed O’reilly, he did not win

    <

    p>I am supporting Mike Capuano, and for the sake of my
    sanity, he must win.

    <

    p>It’s hard to have a good sense of the turnout.  I find it hard to believe that people don’t care enough to get out and vote.  With that said, I believe the turnout will be higher than expected.  

    <

    p>In my email to friends, I asked them to also call their legislators to let them know they cannot afford the gas tax they are debating at this time.  Why do we always have to tax the middle class? A friendly little 1% hike to
    those with the most should do the trick and give the state a boost.  In the meantime those of us who work hard and drive to work everyday will have more money to spend to energize the economy.  It just makes sense.  

    <

    p>My prediction:

    <

    p>Capuano will win by 100 votes and the Coakley campaign along with their outraged supporters will demand a recount.

    <

    p>Khasei and Pags will be looking for their next political race.

  27. Here it is…

    <

    p>Coakley:…..48%
    Capuano…..26%
    Pagliuca…..18%
    Khazei…..8%

    <

    p>I think turnout will be right around expected, though perhaps on the low side — right around 400,000.

Archives