Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

  • Shop
  • Subscribe to BMG
  • Contact
  • Log In
  • Front Page
  • All Posts
  • About
  • Rules
  • Events
  • Register on BMG

Top Senate predictions

January 26, 2010 By sleeples

Full listing (BMG in blue, RMG in red).

Deviations Predictor Brown Coakley Kennedy
0 Actual 51.9 47.1 1

0.2 Ken Pittman 52 47 1
0.2 Paul “Cool Cal“ Ferraro 52 47 1
1.6 Mike “DD4RP” Rossettie 52 46.2 1.6
1.8 yankeepundit 51 48 1
1.8 Republican Ram Rod Radio 51 48 1
2 garyrlake 51 47 2
2 swamp_yankee 51 47 2
2.5 RMG prediction average 51 46.9 2.4
2.8 Rob “EaBo Clipper” Eno 50.5 48.5 1
3.8 Argyle 50 49 1
4 South Shore Republican 50 47 3
4.2 demolisher 54 45 1
5 JoeTS 49 47 3
5 Peter Porcupine 49 47 3
5.6 Philo Publius 53.7 44.3 2
5.8 JohnD 49 48.5 2.5
5.8 MerrimackMan 49 48 3
6 cater68 51 45 4
6 Peter Porcupine 49 47 4
6 All predictions average 48.9 48.7 2.4
6.1
BlueMass model
52.7 44 3.2
6.2 VESuggestions 54.3 44 1.7
6.2 Witch7 54 44 2
6.2 nomad943 54 44 2
7.6 ElectricStrawberry 48.1 48.1 3.8
7.8 sleeples 48 50 2
7.8 sleepleswithamoustache 48 50 2
7.8 Vote3rdpartynow 48 48 4
8.1 BMG/RMG models AVG 47.9 49.2 3
8.8 Hoyapaul 47.5 51 1.5
8.8 jconway 47.5 49.5 3
8.8 PeteSimon 47 49 3
9.2 Manny Happy Returns 53 41 3
9.8 sabutai 47 51 2
10.3 BMG prediction average 46.7 50.4 2.8
11.8 Wookie 46 52 2
11.8 HLPeary 46 52 2
11.8 BigD 46 49 5
12.8 ruppert 46 53 2
13.8 Carey Theil 45 53 2
13.8 Ray M 45 52 3
15.8 eddiecoyle 44 54 2
15.8 PatrickLong 44 51 5
16.8 Steve Stein 43 51 5
19.6 RedMass model 42.1 55.2 2.7
21.8 BrooklineTom 46 61 3
32.8 petr 32 59

Possible reasons for why RedMass did so well?

1) In a tossup race, BMG erred on the side of Coakley, RMG on the side of Brown. Race broke to Brown, they got lucky.

2) RMG better at predicting outcomes of elections.

Future data may help answer that question.

Please share widely!
fb-share-icon
Tweet
0
0

Filed Under: User Tagged With: brown, coakley, percentages, predictions, senate-race

Comments

  1. stomv says

    January 26, 2010 at 10:02 am

    3) with no money riding on the race, predictors maximized the next most important thing — their side’s chance of winning.  What do I mean?

    <

    p>When the narrative is that your candidate will win in a squeaker, it’s easy to motivate folks to work for your candidate.  When the narrative is that your candidate will come up short, it’s much harder to get folks to work GOTV.  So, the narrative is always the same: it’s close, but our guy/gal will come out on top as long as we work hard.

    <

    p>After all, if you don’t lose money for being wrong, might as well be wrong in the way that maximizes your candidate’s chances of winning.

    • peter-porcupine says

      January 26, 2010 at 8:55 pm

      I DID think Scott would win, but I didn’t think he’d break 50% because of Kennedy.

      <

      p>I’ll never be pessimistic again!

    • sleeples says

      January 27, 2010 at 12:34 pm

      I do think that is a factor in close races. My hope is that is a factor that can be isolated and accounted for to help get an accurate picture of where the race actually is.

      <

      p>Maybe if the predictions were private, they would be free from that kind of bias?

  2. alexswill says

    January 26, 2010 at 10:15 am

  3. goldsteingonewild says

    January 26, 2010 at 10:17 am

    what is the relation b/w sleeples and sleeples with a moustache?  “they” had identical predictions.  

    <

    p>is it the same relationship as the one between Ernie Boch Jr and EB3?  

    • sleeples says

      January 27, 2010 at 12:16 pm

      And since I don’t know the true nature of EB3 and Ernie Boch Jr’s relationship, I’ll decline to compare the two.

  4. billxi says

    January 26, 2010 at 4:10 pm

    To the late Frank/Festus.

    • pogo says

      January 26, 2010 at 9:17 pm

    • johnd says

      January 26, 2010 at 11:35 pm

      • huh says

        January 27, 2010 at 12:04 am

        Classless, even in victory.

        • kathy says

          January 27, 2010 at 12:53 pm

          I think they’re both over 50.

          • johnd says

            January 27, 2010 at 2:16 pm

  5. pogo says

    January 26, 2010 at 9:18 pm

    The late Frank predicted 2 million the week before…anyone have a higher number?

    • sleeples says

      January 27, 2010 at 12:20 pm

      I’ll post those numbers later tonight. I am pretty sure nobody broke 2 million.

Recommended Posts

  • No posts liked yet.

Recent User Posts

Predictions Open Thread

December 22, 2022 By jconway

This is why I love Joe Biden

December 21, 2022 By fredrichlariccia

Garlandโ€™s Word

December 19, 2022 By terrymcginty

Some Parting Thoughts

December 19, 2022 By jconway

Beware the latest grift

December 16, 2022 By fredrichlariccia

Thank you, Blue Mass Group!

December 15, 2022 By methuenprogressive

Recent Comments

  • blueeyes on Beware the latest griftSo where to, then??
  • Christopher on Some Parting ThoughtsI've enjoyed our discussions as well (but we have yet to…
  • Christopher on Beware the latest griftI can't imagine anyone of our ilk not already on Twitter…
  • blueeyes on Beware the latest griftI will miss this site. Where are people going? Twitter?…
  • chrismatth on This site (will be disabled on) December 31, 2022I joined BMG late - 13 years ago next month and three da…
  • SomervilleTom on Geopolitics of FusionEVERY un-designed, un-built, and un-tested technology is…
  • Charley on the MTA on This site (will be disabled on) December 31, 2022Thatโ€™s a great idea, and Iโ€™ll be there on Sunday. Itโ€™s a…

Archive

@bluemassgroup on Twitter

#mapoli

mainenewshound mainenewshound @mainenewshound ·
37m

๐Ÿ“›Your Today's shopping list
eggs
products made with eggs
gasoline
products made with gasoline
products delivered by trucks
(PRICES HIKING Massive egg Fire at US supplier "Gas prices are surging this month')
#mepolitics #maine #mapoli #mapoli #nhpolitics #breaking #massachusetts

Reply on Twitter 1620011269641375746 Retweet on Twitter 1620011269641375746 Like on Twitter 1620011269641375746 Twitter 1620011269641375746
legislataapp Legislata @legislataapp ·
3h

Tweet summary for MA State House for 2023-01-29: 87 tweets from 30 legislators. Top words: police, housing, boston, senjehlen, repdaverogers, samvmontano, mikeconnollyma, morning, violence, 15. #mapoli

Reply on Twitter 1619970379933523968 Retweet on Twitter 1619970379933523968 Like on Twitter 1619970379933523968 Twitter 1619970379933523968
bostonianrap Bostonian Rap @bostonianrap ·
5h

How much time have you spent in #Cambridge, Massachusetts? If I had not commented on the Sayed Faisal case, would you have done it? Be honest, @rasheednwalters. #mapoli

Rasheed N. Walters @rasheednwalters

In the Peopleโ€™s Republic of #CambridgeMA politicians, comrade citizens, and far left activists expect a officer to not defend themselves against a man charging at them with a Kukri Knife which is akin to a machete. These people are insane! They all wanted that officer to die!

Reply on Twitter 1619943006064500736 Retweet on Twitter 1619943006064500736 Like on Twitter 1619943006064500736 Twitter 1619943006064500736
bostonianrap Bostonian Rap @bostonianrap ·
6h

I will say this for the @JimLyonsMA crowd - They are quick to weigh in on the events that others first highlight, without adding insight or offering any solutions. Isnโ€™t that right, @rasheednwalters? ๐Ÿ˜‰

#mapoli

Rasheed N. Walters @rasheednwalters

Walters: Left quick to make assumptions about Cambridge cops. #bospoli #mapoli https://www.bostonherald.com/2023/01/28/walters-left-quick-to-make-assumptions-about-cambridge-cops/

Reply on Twitter 1619935991204319235 Retweet on Twitter 1619935991204319235 Like on Twitter 1619935991204319235 Twitter 1619935991204319235
ronaldvining Ron Vining @ronaldvining ·
6h

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ“ข MUST WATCH! Candidate for MA GOP Chair, #RonVining, to host 3rd "Fireside Chat" with #MassGOP State Committee Members about "The #Future" of #MaGOP State Party via @YouTube.
https://www.magopchair.com/ron-vining-to-host-final-fireside-chat-with-massgop-state-committee-about-the-future
#RonVining, #MApoli, #MassGOPchair, #Republican, #GOP, #Vision, #Strategy

Reply on Twitter 1619931435988848640 Retweet on Twitter 1619931435988848640 Like on Twitter 1619931435988848640 Twitter 1619931435988848640
ronaldvining Ron Vining @ronaldvining ·
6h

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ˜๐Ÿ“ข MUST WATCH! Candidate for MA GOP Chair, #RonVining, to host 3rd "Fireside Chat" with #MassGOP State Committee Members about "The #Future" of #MaGOP State Party via @YouTube.
https://www.magopchair.com/ron-vining-to-host-final-fireside-chat-with-massgop-state-committee-about-the-future/
#RonVining, #MApoli, #MassGOPchair, #Republican, #GOP, #Vision, #Strategy

Reply on Twitter 1619931377373446146 Retweet on Twitter 1619931377373446146 Like on Twitter 1619931377373446146 Twitter 1619931377373446146
Load More

From our sponsors




Google Calendar







Search

Archives

  • Facebook
  • RSS
  • Twitter




Copyright © 2023 Owned and operated by BMG Media Empire LLC. Read the terms of use. Some rights reserved.