I have a few ideas. The first one is that people finally got fed up with him. There are certainly enough things out there about him to make people turn away from him. He could have very easily alienated former supporters (I know two delegates who voted for him because they were already pledged, but do not plan on supporting him in the primary, or at least plan on taking a closer look at Lake and Bump) with his antics and not-so-progressive track record.
Another possibility was tweeted by David Bernstein: “Sources say Glodis instructed some of his delegates to vote for Lake to ensure he made the ballot, split liberal vote w/ Bump in primary”. This is always a possibility. However, I think that if Guy Glodis had all the support he claimed, he would have gone for the nomination. To me, this stinks of Guy Glodis covering his ass and making his loss seem like it was planned. This could have easily been intentionally leaked to make Guy look like he was in control the whole time.
It is also possible that labor defected to Bump. She certainly emphasized labor in her Convention video and speech, and this could have swayed union-affiliated delegates in unions that have not yet endorsed. If so, this would be very bad news for Glodis, since it means that he has taken a major hit to his base, clearing the way for Bump and Lake, especially for Bump, who would have a strong base herself. However, this scenario alone would not explain why Lake outperformed expectations.
Finally, there is the “women electing women” effect. Bump is a woman, which does help her get votes from women. While this is definitely present (one delegate near me said that she was voting for Bump because “she’s the only woman;” I’m assuming she means in the auditor primary, otherwise she forgot about Martha Coakley). The big question is whether this would have any substantial effect on the outcome. I’m inclined to say it didn’t.
In any case, all of these scenarios are bad for Glodis, except for the one David Bernstein suggested. Personally, I believe that Glodis is losing support, and failing to pick up new supporters. I really want to hear what everyone else thinks about this, though. In any case, we’ve got a real race on our hands. This race may turn out to be the most interesting and unpredictable one of the season