Its hard to turn on the news these days without seeing something about Sean Bielat or Barney Frank – including the latest coverage of Bill Clinton stumping for Barney in Taunton and Sean Bielat’s counter rally on the green. All of this follows on the heels of a Bielat internal poll which appears to show Sean Bielat within 10 points and nowhere to go but up.
My favorite quote from Barney after the Clinton rally:
“I didn’t just get Bill Clinton to come to Taunton,” Frank said. “I got Sean Bielat to come to Taunton. I noticed he’d said he’d been thinking about having an event here and finally decided to do it. Frankly, I think it’s the first public event he had in Taunton. Maybe it was a two-for for Taunton.”
My favorite quote from Sean’s rally:
“They’ve got a man who left office 10 years ago stumping for a man elected 30 years ago, pushing ideas first implemented 70 years ago,” Bielat said. “We’re talking about something very different.”
Scott Brown won the 4th. Bielat’s campaign is catching fire and now receiving plenty of national attention. Which brings us, finally, to the question.
Here at BMG, what do you think:
One candidate’s internal poll isn’t the most reliable gauge of what’s happening in any race. Only the Boston Herald and Red Mass Group would think that means anything substantive.
<
p>As I’ve said around here before, most people tend to like their own Congressman- it’s always the other 434 Congressman that are the idiots ruining the country. Frank has done a good job of being visible around the district, and is great with constituent services. Those sorts of things should help him.
but – Ed Morrissey at hotair looked at the poll internals with a skeptical eye and came out a believer. (see link above) Morrissey is obviously on the conservative side, but you would be surprised how incredibly reluctant most conservative pundits have been to give this race a chance. Personally I find it a bit frustrating.
<
p>Add to this the fact that Barney’s campaign claims to have polls showing them up by 20 points. But instead of releasing the polls, they called in Bill Clinton.
<
p>I know, I know, none of that proves anything. But still!
But there’s quite a difference between Martha Coakley losing and Barney Frank losing. As evidenced by the Clinton rally, Frank is taking this race seriously. He has a large campaign warchest, whereas Bielat won’t be able to rely on out-of-state sugar daddies the way Scott Brown did. Also, any smart voter will pause to vote out somebody with the influence that Barney Frank has from representing his district.
<
p>The fact that Bielat and buddies wasted half of a day chanting slogans at people lined up to see Bill Clinton speak on Frank’s behalf tells me that they would prefer to express anger than actually win. Instead of knocking on doors, they were trying to provoke people. Sure, Bielat could win, but that would be a marginal victory in a Republican tsunami beyond what we’ve seen in modern American politics.
As a powerful committee chair, Barney no doubt has a formidable war chest. (I’ll save commentary on that for another time since it seems to be a byproduct of democracy which affects both parties) But Barney is also a national villain among the right, and who is to say that Bielat won’t amass the money required to win? Let’s stay tuned on this one.
<
p>While any “smart” voter would be aware of the loss of power that comes with loss of seniority, there are also good arguments to support term limits, and good arguments that Frank did more harm than good net-net (if you believe that he was a main driver for low income loans as the facts seem to support).
<
p>Finally, if you watch any videos of Bielat, you can see that he is clearly not projecting anger. He consistently comes off as eminently reasonable. He really is a great candidate, even if he faces an uphill battle against Barney.
I meant to also say: it seems to me that Barney is NOT a good campaigner. In many ways I think he is worse than Martha was. He projects arrogance and both he and Harry Gural seem to gaffe every time they speak. Barney insulted a town hall full of district residents last year in Dartmouth for several hours – and I’m not just talking about the dining room table. This is a man who is easy to dislike.
<
p>Example of how Frank treats his constituents
<
p>”This is the council on aging, not kindergarten…”
<
p>There is infinitely more on this AND on his support of Fannie and Freddie over the years available right on youtube.
<
p>If the guy isn’t in big trouble, he SHOULD be.
This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions. I also don’t see a Coakley redux.