Today’s Globe reports that MA’s two most hotly-contested congressional races are looking good for the Democrats (the full poll is here). In the 10th District, Bill Keating leads Jeff Perry by 4 points, 37-33. A remarkably high 23% of voters remain undecided. Especially given the fact that previous polls showed a dead heat, I do wonder whether some of those undecideds are ex-Perry voters who have been pushed into the “undecided” camp by recent events. The race is obviously tight, but I think that Keating is well positioned to win, given his lead in the poll and the fact that there hasn’t been a positive story about Perry in ages. Unfortunately, the Globe apparently didn’t ask for fav/unfav ratings in that race. That would have been interesting.
In the 4th District, Barney Frank has a solid 13-point lead over Sean Bielat (46-33), with 11% undecided and 10% saying “other.” (Is there someone else?) Could that tighten up? Yeah, it sure could, and it likely will. I still think Barney wins it, as long as he keeps working as hard as he has been so far.
The bottom line remains what I said a couple of weeks ago: we can, and should, sweep this election. Every single statewide or congressional race is a potential win for Democrats – many are close, but as of now, not a single Republican is ahead.
Hope for the best, and work for it. You know what to do.
you think there’s a reverse bradley – voters who plan to vote for perry but don’t want to say so to pollster?
23% undecided in any race days before an election is weird, except maybe for some low level local election. But a hotly contested congressional race smack in the glare of media attention? Doubly dubious.
<
p>
I wonder where they’re coming from. Then again, anyone who would vote for Perry at this point is kinda skeezy in my book.
I’ll wager that a healthy slice of the 23% are former Perry supporters.
I think we should keep in mind how wrong this poll was back in January.
<
p>Quite a few refusals as well. & Incumbents running below 50% consistently should always be nervous.