Blue Mass Group

Reality-based commentary on politics.

Let’s talk about Bump or Grossman for Senate

By

Jconway, this is your time to shine. I dismissed your suggestion about these two a few days ago because they hadn’t won yet. Now that the AP just called for Bump, let’s go.

Bump managed to be the last major candidate of the night to have her race called. Kind of worrisome, though Nat Fortune got a very high percentage of the vote. Do we have any data on his voters’ second choices? Assuming they all went for Bump in a 2-candidate race, she’d have been up by 8. Grossman won by 10.

In practical terms, both outperformed the Governor. Patrick won by 7%, but if you add the Stein vote to his and the Cahill vote to Baker’s totals, it was a very narrow win.

Grossman’s fundraising acumen is quite impressive. Bump’s, not so much. Her ability to win in spite of being hugely outspent, however, does deserve mention. 4 to 1 in the primary. Don’t have final numbers for the general but I believe Connaughton outspent her about 2 to 1. Kind of depends on how you count the money Connaughton ostensibly spent on the primary. We all know that was really for the general, but she had to use it or lose it in the primary due to restrictions on public financing.

Neither has ever defeated an incumbent, whereas some members of the Congressional delegation have. Though not recently. Bump has actually lost an election as an incumbent, but seems to have learned from it.

Grossman won his primary by establishing himself as the prohibitive frontrunner early on. For that, he gains points for work ethic but loses some points because I don’t know how he’d fare in a more competitive election.

Bump can come off as wonky and/or prickly at times. Grossman as wonky.

Veterans of the Brown and Romney campaigns were working for both Connaughton and Polito, so both Bump and Grossman have already gone toe to toe with some of the best campaign talent the GOP has, and won.

Alright, discuss.  

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  1. And congrats to both!

    <

    p>But before we get too far with annointing someone, it needs to be remembered that a number of hotly contested Congressional races boosted statewide turnout. Presidential years have the best turnout, but we will certainly see fewer challenges. I don’t think Sean Bielat will take on Barney Frank again, but I could see him moving to the 10th or the 5th, and a challenge would drive up GOP numbers in those districts, with Barney’s district not rallying to him in the same way if he doesn’t have an opponent.

    <

    p>In short, 2012 will be different. We might roar back to claim the House, for one thing.

    <

    p>

    • There probably won’t be a 10th district next time around, so redistricting is going to be very interesting.

  2. Andrea Cabral.

    <

    p>For what it’s worth, I don’t see Grossman or Bump running.  Certainly don’t see either wining.

  3. Both of their victories were impressive, particularly Grossman’s easy win, though both should concentrate on doing their jobs rather than eying the Senate seat in two years (assuming you’re talking about them running against Brown).

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    p>There will be enough good Dems interested in the seat that both Grossman and Bump can serve a full term, and, if they do well in their positions, get re-elected. At that time, I’d agree that they’d be near the top of the Democratic bench. We have a lot of good ones for 2012, though, so talk of Grossman or Bump for Senate is I think a bit premature.

    • I consider both of these people to be friends, and I worked for them and voted for them because I thought they would be really, really good at the jobs they were seeking.

      <

      p>I’m eager to see them get involved in these jobs, and fulfill the visions they expressed in their campaigns.

      <

      p>I think our Governor is the role model here (as with so many things!). He obviously could have gone to Washington when Obama won the White House, but he had explicitly pledged to serve out his term, and he stuck with that promise.

      <

      p>I have no problem with people moving up the ladder, but (to mix metaphors), I do object to those who use one office as a stepping-stone to another. I would be surprised if either Suzanne or Steve is thinking that way.

      <

      p>And, btw, I do take exception to differentiating between these victories (not to take anything away from Steve’s hard work and smart campaigning!). As I remember, Polito got 45% of the votes, and Mary Z got 46% — essentially the same outcomes, with the difference being that Suzanne also had a 3rd-party candidate in her race.

  4. Both won important jobs, and both should do those jobs for 4 years before looking at anything else.  Furthermore, both have shortcomings as candidates that did not work against them in these particular races, but would be problematic in a Senate run.  Finally, all due respect to Polito and Connaughton, neither of them has close to the political talent of Scott Brown.

    • I could probably think of worse ideas, but I’m a bit tired right now. Maybe Chuck Turner for Senate.

      <

      p>Anyone looking to challenge Brown has to start getting it together in short order, before either Bump or Grossman starts their new job. If they start setting up their next campaign before even a day on the job to which they’ve just been elected, well, the attack ads write themselves.

      <

      p>Auditor and Treasurer are important jobs and both have learning curves. Let’s have them concentrate on what we’ve already asked them to do.

    • The last Democrat elected to the US Senate from Massachusetts had only held his previous job for 2 years. John Kerry was elected LG in 1982 and Senator in 1984. That’s long enough.

      <

      p>I don’t believe that either would need to start campaigning for Senate right away to win. Ron Johnson, who just defeated incumbent Russ Feingold for Senate in WI, didn’t announce he was running until this May. http://lacrossetribune.com/new…

      <

      p>It doesn;t appear that anyone even knew who he was until last October, and he didn’t hire staff until April: http://www.thenorthwestern.com…

      <

      p>Bump and Grossman are already positioned better than Johnson.

      • Don’t forget the first step in a statewide race here is the February caucuses so operations often get going a few months before that.

        <

        p>With all due respect to our LGs there is not much of an official job description or required duties.  As long as the Governor stays healthy and in state the LG doesn’t have to do much.  The Treasurer and Auditor, on the other hand actually have things to do.

        • And our curent LG Tim Murray made quite a lot of it…many of the accomplishments touted by the Adm. during the election were driven by and achieved with the hands-on work of Murray. If every elected official worked as hard as Murray did for the past 4 years this state would be in great shape. Murray was Deval’s secret weapon.

    • don’t forget about the phony license plate scandal that Grossman “misstated” according to the Boston Globe…what a disgraceful individual.  He’d get his clock cleaned running for Senate, now that would be fun to watch!

      • I don’t know….it would seem that “per K Polito” on those applications that jumped over other people’s earlier applications says it all.  And really…if it’s all about the kids, why not auction off #2 instead of keeping it for yourself?  

          • The Globe said Rep Polito’s inner circle “cleaned up.”

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            p>http://www.boston.com/news/pol…

            <

            p>

            Jimmy Fund officials and Polito said the plates were available to anyone who applied and that the numbers were assigned on a first come, first served basis after the bill was signed into law Sept. 26, 2002.

            Registry records, however, contradict that. On all 68 applications, the words “per KPolito” or some variation appears, according to the documents, obtained through a public records request.

            Dozens of applicants applied before Polito’s friends, relatives, and donors, but received higher numbered plates, including:

            A Peabody driver who submitted an application on Sept. 24, 2002, and was assigned plate number 8179, without specifically requesting it on the form. J.A. Polito and Sons filed its application the next day and received number 20.

            A Charlestown driver who asked for the “lowest number available,” filed an application a month before the law was signed and got number 545.

            A Needham driver applied on Oct. 4, 2002, asking for any two-digit plate, and was assigned 1912. Several applicants, whose forms bore Polito’s name, applied days or weeks later and received two-digit plates.

            Few if any, of the low-number plates appear to have gone to members of the general public.

            • in case you missed the last minute publishing… 5:05 the evening before the election….
              No wonder the rag known as the Globe is near bankrupt.

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              p>http://www.boston.com/news/loc…

              <

              p>

              “..wrongly asserts that she secured plates reserved for a charity auction”

              • the license plates were supposed to be “first come, first served?”  Really dude – Karen’s amigos were able to jump over applications that came in before theirs.  AND…

                <

                p>

                Polito, however, could have run afoul of state ethics laws, which prohibit public officials from using their position to get anything of substantial value.

                <

                p>And with all due respect, if it was all about the kids, why didn’t Karen have her number 2 plate auctioned off and raise even more money for the Jimmy Fund?  Just saying.

  5. I would love to see Tim run. He can immediately tap in to the structure built by the Patrick/Murray/Combined campaign, is from out side of Boston, has state wide exposure, is in a role where he can spend time campaigning and would make a great senator. What are others thoughts on him as a candidate?

      • Every scandal from the patrick admin comes back to bite him. But he doesn’t have patrick’s popularity either. He has never won an election to anything bigger than worcester city council by himself. Mayor is chosen by the council. Lg is basically along for the ride with gov.

        • He has never won an election to anything bigger than worcester city council by himself.

          <

          p>He won a hotly-contested, three-way race for the democratic nomination for Lt. Governor. Lest we not forget, that race featured two other strong candidates, one of whom was able to self-fund her candidacy. Tim Murray’s victory in that race was impressive, as has his ability to capture Worcester County votes for the Governor as part of the ticket.

          <

          p>Tim Murray is certainly a very popular guy within the Democratic Party and there’s a lot of activists within the party (including myself) who would give him strong consideration, should he decide to run. There are other candidates I’d like to take a look at, but there’s a good chance Murray gets my support if he puts his name in contention. He’s the exact kind of guy who can lay claim to both regional and state-wide support, who is willing to stand up for his principals and embrace a grassroots campaign, that could defeat Scott Brown.  

          • A lot of people voted for him bc they perceived him to be more electable. He used the being from worcester thing to advertise himself. But I don’t buy it. Bump did almost as well in worcester as the governor last night. That was in spite of the claim put forward by many here that glodis supporters were going to go republican out of spite. so it does not appear that murray made much difference for the gov. Show me one poll finding that murray helped patrick and I may support him. Right now I believe he actually hurts patrick.

            • A lot of people voted for him bc they perceived him to be more electable.

              <

              p>This point undercuts your entire argument. Tim Murray isn’t a good candidate because he’s never won an election, you say, yet he was elected as the Democratic Nominee for LG because he was perceived to be more electable.

              <

              p>Of course, you’re also ignoring the fact that he did, indeed, win — then making up excuses for as to why you don’t think it should ‘count.’ To me, that just means you’re looking for excuses. There’s only 3 other Democratic candidates, aside Murray and Patrick, who currently hold office and have won anything statewide. Two of those people are brand new. None of them have a history of broad, grassroots support.  

              • John Kerry was perceived to be more electable in the 2004 Presidential race. Turns out he wasn’t. Winning a primary says nothing about your ability to win a general election.

                <

                p>Murray didn’t win the general, Patrick did. Again, all you have to show me is one poll showing that Murray helped the ticket. So far you haven’t done that.  

                • ran “the other guys not electable” ads, creating the preception.
                  Lesson – learn to filter campaign spin better.

        • In fact, it’s hard to imagine someone being more wrong in a 3 line post.

          <

          p>A)  Like Ryepower said, he won a very contested LG battle.

          <

          p>B)  What scandals have bit him?  Did he pick out the Drapes?

          <

          p>C)  Worcester’s mayor is chosen by the voters.

          <

          p>D)  Listen to Deval Patrick when he speaks.  He almost never fails to give Tim credit for the great job he is doing as LG.  “Along for the ride”?  Sheesh!

          • A. Irrelevant. Primaries are not general elections. Martha Coakley won a hotly contested Senate primary. John Kerry won a hotly contested Presidential primary. Shannon O’Brien won a hotly contested Governor primary. Did that make any of them good general election candidates? (Hint: they all lost).

            <

            p>B.Patronage stuff. I will bet you anything you want that you’ll hear a lot more about marian walsh type crap if he runs for Senate or Governor. Baker was busy attacking Gov Patrick, but with Murray at the top of the ticket, he’d get hit hard on this kind of stuff.

            <

            p>C. You’re right. The mayor is styled “Mayor and Councilor at Large”, and I thought that was a reference to his position on the council and the council electing him. But I looked it up. Thanks for correcting me.

            <

            p>D. Of course he does that. The Governor gets blamed for the LG’s mistakes but can’t fire him, so of course the Gov has an incentive to compliment him. An LG is doing a great job as long as they don’t bring about the kind of scandal Scott Lee Cohen brought to the ticket in the IL Gov race.  

            • is a formidable candidate in his own right.  Before Deval ever won the gubernatorial race, Tim Murray was a 3-term mayor of Worcester, the second largest city in this state, dealing with the nuts and bolts of governing a city with all the good, the bad and the ugly that goes with it.  this is not some backbenching light weight like Tisei.  The governor made a good choice when he made Tim as his running mate.  Not to mention the fact that the guy has done yeoman’s labor to support the ticket  

              • Governor didn’t pick him as running mate. There’s a primary for that. Worcester has roughly the population of a State Senate district. So yes, he is a backbenching lightweight.  

                • actually participated in local government?  If you’re the mayor of a large city, you have an amazing organization that helps you get and stay elected AND a network of city and town officials with whom you’ve worked over the years.  A mayor will work on coalitions with other towns, and spearhead efforts at the state house.  Evidently, you’re not well-versed when it comes to the job.

                  <

                  p>I’m aware there’s a primary for the LG job.  I am also aware that he was Deval’s choice among the candidates.  

                  <

                  p>This guy is no back-bencher and he’s well-liked.  

                • A state senator has all those same advantages as a mayor. Point being if Tisei was a lightweight, same is true of Murray.

                  <

                  p>Like I said, wasn’t murray who won the election. It was Patrick.

                  <

                  p>Patrick made a point not to endorse anyone in the primary. What evidence do you have that he was secretly favoring Murray?  

              • Part of the reason why Tim Murray won the primary, and has been a very successful as a lieutenant governor, is his relationship with municipal officials around the state.  Tim understands local government, and has been a tremendous asset to the governor as an ambassador to the cities and towns around the state.  

          • succinct and I dare say, very, very accurate.  Some people were holding their noses voting for the Patrick-Murray ticket just to see Tim continue to rise.   He has the inner compass that many listed above just don’t have.  

    • I’ve always assumed he’d be running for governor in 2014. Would he be damaged goods if he tried for the senate seat in 2012 and lost in either the primary or general? I think he’s going to take a cue from Deval and finish both terms as LG. He’s also a young guy (with young kids) and doesn’t need to be in any hurry to get to Washington.

      <

      p>This does bring up another interesting question, since Deval says this is his last term: Who else is considering a run in 2014?

      • I wonder if he would be happy in the Senate. (I do think he’d be good for Mass.–every state needs its “Senator Pothole,” the nuts-and-bolts go-to constituent-services guy, and we haven’t got one right now.)

        <

        p>Granted, none of that is important to the question of his electability. And he does have a free shot, in that he does not have to risk his day job to run.

        <

        p>But the guy I keep coming back to is Capuano.

  6. this topic entertains me and terrifies me. I don’t know if I could handle a run for a still higher office. Besides, I’m busy being happy for the success we just enjoyed in a tough race against a worthy opponent.

    <

    p>Hmmm, son of a Senator? Interesting.

    • 2012 won’t be anybody’s cakewalk.

      <

      p>But I absolutely agree that Cap is an attractive candidate.

      • However, this is very winnable if we have a strong candidate who can take on Scott Brown and show the swing voter that Scott Brown is not good for Massachusetts and working-class voters.

        <

        p>We can’t win with the “nice” candidates, as in “wouldn’t it be nice if we could elect _______.”  We need a fighter.  

  9. Cd40 I appreciate the shout-out! I think seeing Bumps small victory and the late minute issues that came with her candidacy (even the Globe was against her) will hurt her for the 12′ race. While I trust she will make a great Auditor, I want her to keep her at that post for a little while.

    <

    p>Also, having observed this election from Illinois, I can say that Alexi ran into a lot of trouble as Treasurer, since its a position, not unlike Governor, that forces you to make tough decisions during tough times. And those decisions will be used against you in ads. He has the money, the personality, and hopefully the record, but I see him as more of a management guy and a future gubernatorial candidate.

    <

    p>The two candidates that I think would do best are both in the Corner Office. Last night Patrick has shown he can win back to back state-wide races and that he has exceptional political skills. He went from 30% just a year ago to 50% yesterday-a full twenty point gain during a time when the generic Democrat fell perilously. To be fair he had lackluster opponents, really lackluster. But I also know he hosted several town hall meetings, personally met with several voters, and had a great GOTV effort. My parents and I were all on the Patrick roster, none of us were big fans, but my parents got personal visits from several, nice, and gregarious campaign workers and I got my absentee ballot application from a similar worker. I was most impressed by the software and the grassroots campaign that was assembled by Plouffe and company and the exact same model was used in Iowa. So he has come back, and I always thought a man of his eloquence and rhetorical skills would be better in the Senate anyway.

    <

    p>Also Murray did exceptionally well as a fundraiser and spokesperson for the campaign, the ticket did a whole lot better in Worcester and the Western part of the state, and I see Murray as a big reason the Patrick ticket won back so many white blue collar voters. Between the two I think Murray is a better fit as a candidate and could do quite well. But if there is anything we can say this election its don’t count Deval out, and I say this as a very harsh critic who woulda been a Baker voter a year and a half ago.  

  10. Meet Setti Warren.

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    p>http://www.newtonma.gov/Exec/d…

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    p>I think Setti would be an amazingly effective US Senator if he were to run and win, and I also think he would also be one of the strongest candidates we could nominate in two years. Here’s why.

    <

    p>Setti was elected Mayor of my hometown in November ’09, defeating an extremely popular incumbent State Representative for the job, even though he was away for much of the beginning of the campaign serving active-duty with Naval intelligence in Baghdad (He is an active member of the U.S. Naval Reserves). He came home, hired probably the best campaign team in Massachusetts that year (his Campaign Manager also ran State Sen. Sonia Chang-Diaz’s upset win in ’08, and Mac D’Allesandro’s strong showing against U.S. Rep Steve Lynch this year), put together a killer messaging campaign, personally knocked on over 12,000 doors and won. The guy knows how to campaign, and he does the hard work necissay to beat an incumbent, come from behind and win.

    <

    p>Setti also has been a huge success so far as Mayor of our city. He has handled the fiscal crisis he inherited, complete with structural deficit, in an open and transparent way, building consensus about how our community can protect core vital services while cutting spending. In short, he’s a real life good-government progressive. He also keeps up breakneck schedule of community meetings and events. Last I saw, his approval ratings were in the mid-70s.

    <

    p>Setti also has the resume and the experience to serve in Federal office. He served in the Clinton Administration as the New England Regional Director of  the Federal Emergency Management Administration, and later as the head of the First Lady’s advance staff. He also served as U.S. Sen. John Kerry’s District Director for four years, from when his role as the head of the Kerry presidential campaign’s advance team ended until he deployed to Iraq with the Naval Reserves.

    <

    p>In Synopsis,

    <

    p>-Hugely popular and successful Mayor of MA’s 11th largest city
    -INCREDIBLE Campaigner, charismatic, smart, amazing speaker, outworks anyone and everyone
    -Iraq War combat veteran
    -Extensive service at the Federal level in both the Clinton Administration and as chief aid to U.S. Sen. John Kerry

    <

    p>I have no idea if he’ll run or not, but there’s certainly been some activist chatter around town about supporters asking him to consider it.

    <

    p>Whether he runs or not, I’d say Setti is someone to keep an eye on in the future- he’s one of the real rising stars of the Mass Democratic Party.

    <

    p>

    • Has he already cured  Newton’s problems?  That’s what he convinced Newton voters he wanted to do. Does anyone want the job they are running for? To do the job they seek to get? or is it just about stepping stones to a higher office…voters be damned…

      • Setti has been mayor here for about a year, and yes, we have come a long way in that year towards righting our cities’ finances.

        <

        p>To be clear, I’ve never heard so much as a peep from Setti or anyone on his team about running for anything- just chatter among the local activist class here in town who think he’d make a great candidate.

        <

        p>If you disagree with me about how the first year of Mayor Warren’s term has gone, I’d love to debate Newton politics with you (or anyone for that matter, there aren’t enough of us who are interested! 🙂 ) If I remember right, you were an outspoken supporter of Setti’s opponent in the mayoral race last year, and I would advice you not to let your support for Ruth cloud your assessment of Setti’s preformance as Mayor. I’m actually a big Ruth fan too, so much so that I hosted a fundraiser for her at my home that raised more than $1,000 for her reelection bid to the house this year. Time to bury the hatchet.

        • It sounds like your candidate has a job to do.  He should probably stick to it for at least another term.  It’s never too good to show so much burning ambition that people won’t trust you to stay in the seat or use them as a stepping stone.  

          • But if you’re Martha Coakley (sworn in AG Jan.07, began US Senate campaign Aug.09) or Katherine Clark (sworn in as State Rep May.07, began State Senate run June.10), then it’s all good.

            <

            p>Got it.

            <

            p>

            • as mayor in November 2009!  What 3 years of service are you counting? BTW, Martha Coakley was the Middlesex DA from 1999 to 2007, and then became the AG, which she served for two years before her run for an open seat on the US Senate.  Katherine Clark was also running for an open seat.   You’re shopping your candidate around against an incumbent, without much service or name recognition under his belt, or without the network needed to get it done…which will make it a suicide mission.  So imply all you want… you’ve got nuttin, honey.

              • So, three years after Setti was elected in November of ’09.

                <

                p>Also, weren’t you the person on this blog advocating that Coakley primary Kerry for his senate seat in ’08? Apparently running against the incumbent with only a year of service in her current position was OK then, too.

                <

                p>Instead of a negative, let’s turn this into a positive question: who would you like to see as our nominee against Mr. Brown?

                • Reading comments in isolation without reading the others, means you don’t have context.  I was blowing off steam after Hillary’s loss and I stated I would love to have Martha Coakley run against John Kerry, because he’s an arrogant piece of work that got himself involved in the 2008 primary.  Although his efforts didn’t hurt Hillary in Massachusetts…I thought it would be poetic justice for Kerry to have a primary with one of Hillary’s chief supporters. He deserves one.  Although truth be told, I wouldn’t have wanted Martha to engage on a suicide mission, thereby reducing the number of elected women in this state.  There’s damned few as it is and even less today.  

                  <

                  p>And…if you read further….I stated I would write in a family member’s name if I can’t vote for the Democratic nominee.  

                  <

                  p>And…if you ready my comments in 2009, you would have seen that I was a Cap supporter before I backed our nominee. The outcome of that race tells me she wasn’t ready, despite our Party’s faith in her.    

                  <

                  p>So by all means, bring your candidate to a vanity suicide mission against Brown, armed with three years experience as an elected mayor against a guy who has been busy raising money, and honing his network, and whom the GOP national party won’t let go without a fight.  Whomever our candidate is, we better have the juice to do it and win.    

        • Hey, Dave…I was using hyperbole…just know he has not served a full term of anything…as far as being a “Ruth fan”, if you mean Babe, I am.  I do not live in Newton, nor do I get involved in Newton’s local grudges. I do not know Rep. Ruth Balser personally either.

    • Smart, but went out of her way on her show to discount the talk as some sort of crazy Scott Brown diversion.

      <

      p>Vicki Kennedy?  Party insiders will feel good, sing Kumbaya, and lose by 10 points to Scott Brown.  I think I’ve seen this one before.

    • Capuano is the guy who was incompetent enough to lose to Coakley. That’s a no go.

      <

      p>McGovern, yes. McGovern beat an incumbent Republican, and he knows how to work with more conservative, working class Dems like Guy Glodis. I don’t know how well known he is statewide, but if he is well-known enough, definitely a good pick.  

      • I like Mike, but agree if he can’t beat Coakley he can’t beat Brown. Frankly none of the Congressmen are going to be good options, especially since one will lose their job due to reallocation, and since most are unknown outside their districts. The biggest problem with Mike is that it had been ten years since he’d run in a competitive election and he was a really bad campaigner, and that progressives foolishly backed Khazei instead of someone who had actually done something important in public life. McGovern might be an exception since he is from the center of the state and is well known in the West, it will be tough for him to win a Boston based primary, but easier for him to win a general election. Unfortunately he has shown no independence from the party line on any issue and has taken up radical pet causes (invading Sudan and supporting Chavez) that might not go over well with some people.

        <

        p>Sonia Chang Diaz could be a very interesting darkhorse. Her presence would bolster women, minority, and youth turnout which were down last election, and she would benefit more directly from Obama’s coattails since she fits into the young, generational, transformative leader kind of role. Taking on Wilkerson and voting like a fiscal conservative also shows an independent streak. The biggest assumption Dems made in that race was that the voters of MA wanted another Ted Kennedy and another doctrinaire liberal, and I think they wanted to try something different instead. So whomever we nominate has to appeal to independents and the voters across the state. Diaz’s biggest liabilities are name recognition outside her district, money, and she is biracial and has a funny name, but I know another State Senator from Hyde Park who was able to overcome those obstacles and still win and she seems to have some of his talents too.  

        • I think Capuano would make a fine candidate over a regular election cycle. Coakley had so many big advantages in the compressed Nov/Dec 2009 primaries (as if sheer name recognition wasn’t enough, she was also the only woman in a field of four) that there was no way she’d lose. The only chance anyone else had was if the progressive community had rallied around one non-Coakley candidate and that didn’t really happen. This time there won’t be a compressed schedule.  

          <

          p>Also, if lack of recognition outside a district is a big obstacle to a Congressman, it’s 5 times as big an obstacle to a State Senator. I’d prefer someone who had nothing to do with Beacon Hill or its culture, to be honest, even someone relatively clean and insulated from the worst of it.  

          <

          p>As a Worcester native, I also adore McGovern and I suppose he might be tempted to jump in given that he’s not getting to chair Rules anytime soon with a new sizable GOP majority. I’d just hate to lose him since you never know who that area would put in his place in an open seat situation. (And, yeah, the Chavez/Castro stuff won’t go over well with a lot of people. Brown would definitely make an issue of it.)  

          • … have to raise his profile and name recognition to pull it off.  I do think he has the right temperment in his campaign style for such a run, however.  He is a guy who can stoke the populism and that, combined with a higher visibility and name recognition, could present an effective front against Brown.  Excitement generated by his ability to speak his mind plainly on behalf of the ‘moral rightness’ of his policy stances would be the key.

          • for the simple reason that the 8th district will never vote for a Republican and that Congressional seat would remain Blue. McGovern’s district could swing Republican at some point. I also think the short primary cycle did not showcase Capuano’s strengths. He is great at connecting with people at the meetings that I attended. He comes off as a regular Joe, which can only help him against Scott ‘I drive a truck’ Brown. The downside would be the sexist trogs on right-wing radio screaming about his tight association with Nancy Pelosi.

            • The GOP will demonize any Democratic leader no matter what. And while the “fire Pelosi” thing might have resonated in some conservative areas, it’s not of much relevance to Massachusetts.

              <

              p>Especially since Pelosi won’t be Speaker anymore – now there’s even less reason to care about her. Most voters are unlikely to know or remember who Pelosi even is.

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              p>And yeah….Worcester alone isn’t enough to assure that a Central Massachusetts CD doesn’t fall into GOP hands, especially in an open seat situation. McGovern’s operation appears plugged in enough that he should have little trouble holding it going forward. There will sadly be one less district in Massachusetts anyway next election cycle, so all the districts will have to be made bigger.

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              p>I doubt we’re going to see an incumbent vs. incumbent situation. Between people looking to take on Brown and probable retirements of senior folks who may not want to keep their careers going as part of a minority, I imagine we won’t see musical chairs.  

  13. Bump managed to be the last major candidate of the night to have her race called. Kind of worrisome, though Nat Fortune got a very high percentage of the vote. Do we have any data on his voters’ second choices? Assuming they all went for Bump in a 2-candidate race, she’d have been up by 8.

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    p>Thanks for asking for real data, especially since your assumption that my votes would have gone to Bump is a common but incorrect one. (To be fair, on some Republican sites, the idea has been suggested that I reduced Connaughton’s vote!)  

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    p>The only poll to address this question so far is the Oct 25 – 27th, 2010 State House News Service poll, which revealed that I was drawing support equally from Democrats and Republicans: 25% from Democrats, 25% from Republicans, and 50% from independents.

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    p>http://www.statehousenews.com/…

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    p>To me, it isn’t surprising that my support should come equally from across the political spectrum, because my key issues in the campaign:

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    p>(1) public dollars should be spent on public services (where they provide the greatest benefit) , not squandered on private giveaways that drain needed state funds from our cities, towns and schools and raise our taxes

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    p>(2)there should be an analysis of the cost, benefits, and tax fairness of major new legislation (such as casino proposals) and budgets

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    p>(3) interagency audits focused on how well agencies work together — or don’t! — to meet public needs in jobs, education and health care

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    p>weren’t about pulling MA to the left or right, they were about moving MA forward.  I of course continue to hope these ideas will be adopted.

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    p>Nat Fortune, 2010 Green-Rainbow Candidate for State Auditor

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    p>P.S. That poll had Bump at 27%, Connaughton at 34%, Fortune at 7%, and undecided at 32%. I had hoped that remarkably high percentage of undecided voters were undecided because they were unhappy with the only two candidates they had heard of and might instead vote for the third candidate on the ballot once they entered the voting booth. Based on this poll and election night numbers, that clearly didn’t happen. Instead, the simplest explanation of the election results is that those that  were still undecided that close to the election  were undecided because they didn’t know enough about any of the auditor candidates, and instead voted on party lines based on gubernatorial preference. Without any intended affront to those of you for whom Suzanne Bump has always been your preferred candidate, I’m sure she is thankful for Patrick’s strong GOTV efforts.

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    p>Whatever the explanation, I offer my congratulations to Suzanne Bump for her victory and vigorous campaign (and told her so election night). I’m sure we all have the highest hopes and expectations for the office of state auditor in the coming years.  

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