Blue Mass Group

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Deval: Setti Warren and Alan Khazei “in for sure” for MA-Sen in 2012 [updated 2x]

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A fascinating nugget in the National Journal (HT Bernstein – emphasis mine):

Though Patrick said he had not been actively recruiting challengers for Brown, he told [National Journal] he has spoken with four potential candidates – City Year founder Alan Khazei, Democratic activist Robert Massie, Newton Mayor Setti Warren, and Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll.

“Kim is not in; she has not made up her mind, but I know she’s thinking about it seriously. But Alan and Bob and Setti are in, for sure,” Patrick said. He added that former finance executive and Romney aide Robert Pozen, who has said he will run for Senate as a Democrat if the party asks him, had been trying to get in touch.

Interesting, in that only Massie has actually declared.  I wonder whether Deval was speaking out of turn.  I’ll see what I can scare up from the other potential candidates.

UPDATE: Here’s a statement (email, no link) from Setti Warren:

Statement from Mayor Setti D. Warren in Response to Governor Patrick’s Comments About US Senate Race

“I’m honored that my friend Governor Patrick has mentioned me as a possible candidate for U.S. Senate. I am considering a run against Senator Brown.  I have been disappointed by many of his votes, which I believe have hurt many cities and towns in Massachusetts, including my own community of Newton.

“I’m not yet ready to announce an official decision on entering the race. But in the final analysis, if I believe I can do a better job for Massachusetts, I’ll put my name on the ballot.”

FURTHER UPDATE: Alan Khazei, like Setti Warren, is seriously considering a run, though he has not made any final decision.  He just told me the following:

I am actively considering another Senate run.  I haven’t made a final decision yet, but I have greatly appreciated that a lot of people, especially the grassroots, are encouraging me to run.  I learned a lot from the last campaign, and I came away from it even more committed to the causes and the people I care most about.

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  1. …appears to have been active in recent days soliciting friends on Facebook.  I wonder if that’s indicative of her thinking.

    • Mayor Driscoll has always been active on Facebook and the number of friends has always been high because she figured out how to use it as a community info tool early on…I don’t think you should assume that is a sign or indicator here.

      • It’s one thing to use it as a community tool within your community.  It’s another thing to start sending friend requests to Democratic activists 20 miles away whom you’ve never met.  She may not have made a decision yet, but she hasn’t made 116 new “friends” in the last three days for nothing, either.

        • To get 116 new friends in 3 days is not difficult…just accept ALL of the Dem. activists who are requesting to be your friend (after seeing your name dropped by the governor) and the new network of added contacts from your new position as Vice Chair of mass Mayors Assn…I’m surprised that 116 is all that are new…seems low…watch Setti’s jump now that he has been equally dubed by the Gov.

            • If you have a good intern with a lot of time to kill…Go to the FB pages of activists or pols:  John Walsh (2,040), Kate Donaghue (1,580), Capuano (4,200), Deval Patrick (27,195), Tim Murray (4,662)…etc., etc. click on “see friends”…when the huge list comes up just click off add as friend on every single one…odds are with you that you will get confirmed by majority of people…pols accept everyone, political reporters do as well…you should be able to add at least 250 a day, even with breaks…

              <

              p>Caveat: let’s not judge candidates’ viability by the number of fbf’s they collect…that would be a false and disheartening gauge…

              <

              p>Alan Khazei (3,740)
              Setti Warren (1,091)
              Bob Massie (1,036)
              Kim Driscoll (2,794)

              <

              p>Scott Brown (235,705)

              <

              p>it would take a lot of interns working overtime to catch up!

              • I just think it’s not coincidence that the day she’s being talked about as a Senate candidate, she goes Facebook hunting.  Maybe an intern was the one who took the initiative, but it’s not worth arguing about.

          • Much like Christopher, she contacted me.  I ignored the first “Friend” request, because I have absolutely no connection to the Mayor or her city, but then she sent me another one.  

            <

            p>The whole notion that hundreds of activists are suddenly flocking to her because they may have read her name in the news is more than a little silly.  This is an orchestrated effort to generate some buzz… and more power to her if she gains some traction.

    • But I’d definitely say it’s bad strategy to tell people who aren’t committed to supporting you anything that you don’t want made public.

      <

      p>Looks like the liberal vote’s gonna get split at least 3 ways. Say hello to Senator Lynch or Senator Pozen. Pozen annoys me. He’ll “run… if the party asks him”?! Is he the second coming of Jesus? The party doesn’t ask you. You prove to us that you deserve the nomination.  

  3. I am inclined to not be thrilled if the second and third place finishers in the 2010 US Senate Democratic primary decide to run.  Their potential candidacies are a distraction from finding “the one”.   We need a Neo or a Trinity.

    <

    p>Please do not get me wrong, they (Capuano and Khazei) are both fine individuals, have credentials and offer very different styles for democrats to choose from but the election will not be about democrats, it will be about the Unenrolled voter and who people want to see as the leader for Massachusetts.

    <

    p>A fresh face for a new race with a bold message is needed.  

    <

    p>It will take an unusual candidate with exceptional ability to communicate and connect with voters.   Those are not the two qualities I would use to describe the guys who already gave it a go and lost.  I do not see either Khazei or Capuano having the charisma to move the needle that is pointing straight at our Republican US Senator’s re-election.

    <

    p>The Brown machine is arguably stronger than any machine in Massachusetts with only the Patrick machine in the same tier.  Senator Kerry is fortunate Brown is not running against him. We have some serious disconnect with the non-engaged, non-progressives in the Commonwealth and our aging delegation is not cutting it.  Despite the vast majority of seats being held by democrats the case to vote (D) is not happening.

    <

    p>

    Neo: What is the Matrix?
    Trinity: The answer is out there, Neo, and it’s looking for you, and it will find you if you want it to.

    • Not sure how you figure that Brown has a machine of any sort in the state. His machine for the special was out-of-state Tea Party crazies, most of which he has now pissed-off by not being crazy enough.

      <

      p>Don’t get me wrong. Beating Scott Brown will be difficult, if not next-to impossible, but it won’t have anything to do with any “machine” he has. I could name a dozen mayors here in Massachusetts who have better machines that Brown.

        • … the out-of-state Tea Party crazies certainly did not vote him into office. He won by getting the independent vote, and a lot of Democrats too. That said, his organization was fueled by the Tea Party crazies – his phone banks, his ground troops and his money.

          <

          p>It was perhaps the biggest mistake of the Coakley campaign – that they didn’t go after these people and tie them Brown. I’m not sure MA voters would have been too pleased to know that Brown’s “huge crowds” on the stump were mostly out-of-state nutters.

          <

          p>That said – he has no machine of any sort.

          • that this was the only thing that Coakley tried to do.  Good lord, I think they set a record for saying “Republican” and “extremist” the most times in a 30 second spot.

            <

            p>Pretending, as Bob does above, that he is a “right wing Republican extremist” because he is to the right of liberal Democrats will simply result in his first full term.

            • Unfortunately, Coakley did nothing of the sort. She tried to tie Brown to the Republican right in Washington, instead of tying the out-of-state Tea Party nuts to Brown’s campaign. I’m guessing that independent voters in MA would have been none too pleased to have these crazies interfering on the ground in that election. We could go on all year, of course, on the mistakes that Coakley made in that campaign.

              • The national attention wasn’t exactly a secret, but was rather big news, nationally, for well over a month before, and I recall getting an absurd number of phone calls about it during the last week or two.

                <

                p>One might also theorize that candidate Coakley was penalized for grossly corrupt manipulations of the vacant seat statute by the Democrats in the statehouse.

              • That Ms. Coakley actually campaigned!

                <

                p>It was one of the softest, uninspired campaigns I have ever been tortured to witness and endure.  Giving time and money to elect Martha when she was sitting out on Sundays was as much fun as a root canal.  

                <

                p>The mistake made by the Coakley campaign was that they overestimated themselves, underestimated Brown and were clueless about average people’s mindset and temperament until it was too late.

                <

                p>

                The only thing that was gratifying about the Massachusett 2010 US Senate special election was that the person who worked the hardest won.
                -Heartland

                <

                p>Time and money best spent “going forward” will be on electing some inspirational Congress persons to join Jim McGovern; keep the corner office with Governor Tim Murray (2015) and elect a Progressive Democrat whom the people can identify and communicate with to the current US Senate people’s seat that is occupied by a Democrat.

            • And every single Democrat, conservative and liberal alike, according to the National Review.

              <

              p>If you think that one of the more conservative Republican Senators — that would be Scott Brown: more conservative than five of his Republican colleagues and every Senate Democrat (just to repeat, because that reality evidently didn’t penetrate the first time) — can run as a moderate in Massachusetts against a skilled opponent, you’re not the canny and experienced observer of state politics you so often appear.

              <

              p>Pretend what you like, I prefer reality.

              <

              p>I am honored to note, however, that you apparently think I personally have the power to get Brown re-elected. Flattery will get you anywhere.

        • Politics is not won by the President mentioning your name. Most people don’t follow politics very closely, and the President endorsing a bill which has a fairly tepid chance of passing is a fairly weak plus. (And really, objectively it’s Wyden’s bill more than it’s Brown’s. Wyden has been working for years for these sorts of policies for health care, Scott Brown is just a useful person to pair off with. And it’s a good bill.)

          <

          p>The gritty details of passing legislation is something which voters largely ignore, and the even blander details of Presidents talking about the merits of bills is even less significant. This sort of thing helps I suppose, but I honestly don’t understand how you can just point to it and act as if it’s obvious poison for the Democrats.

          <

          p>And frankly, I think the whole idea of messaging is highly highly overrated. Scott Brown was fortunate enough to be able to slide in on bland charm in a special election. But under ordinary situations most of electoral outcomes are determined by fundamentals, with campaigning adding a few points here or there. And the fundamentals are not in Brown’s favor.

          • my post wasn’t about the substance.  It was about the headline and image of Obama touting Brown.  Who on any of the short lists can beat that?

  4. considering the fake right party threw out the wonderboy out with the bathwater in the sexual harassement category.

    <

    p>Yeah, I gotta admit, even for me, that was nasty, but true!

    • These candidates are not that well known, we need candidates that can quickly raise money, cash, and momentum and have state wide name recognition. None of these candidates fit that mold.  

        • Although most here assume he is running for Governor in 2014, it seems that most of the big names, sans Capuano, are taking a pass. Not sure who else is out there. Harshbarger and Gabrielli were always good public servants, but they’ve been out for awhile and are perceived as losers. Not enough time for Grossman, and Bump has been somewhat discredited due to the last minute near-collapse of her campaign. None of the other Congressmen strike my fancy, so I can see how a second tier (or frankly a third tier) suddenly becomes a first tier. The irony is Deval would make a great candidate, and even though I’ve been a staunch critic of his record as Governor, I think his skill set would be better suited for the Senate anyway. But he’ll stay put for now. So if he is game Murray is my man, otherwise we are in deep trouble. Deval was a nobody, and so was Brown, but they announced far earlier before their respected elections and were out and about early on, there needs to be a candidate soon.  

            • Cite your source.

              <

              p>Lt. Gov. Murray would be a great Governor and an outstanding US Senator, without a doubt…but he has not made any public statement about running for either position…unless you know something we don’t…cite your source.

  5. On Feb 17, I posted:
    If you start today, you would have to raise about $10,250 per day, EVERY SINGLE DAY between now and Nov., 2012 to come up with just what Brown has in the bank now…He says he plans to raise 25 million and he has 7 mil of that already…any Democrat can’t waste time getting to the money raising component, waiting “until things get going” will mean waiting too long.

    <

    p>TWELVE DAYS HAVE PASSED…if you didn’t get in the race yet and didn’t raise your needed daily quota in those 12 days, you are already $123,000 in the hole!!

    <

    p>Brown does not have to spend anything on getting name recognition…he is a celebrity…In October, 2010, the Suffolk poll had his name recognition at 97%…and 54% of those people had a favorable opinion of him, 29% unfavorable and 14% undecided….those aren’t bad numbers.

    <

    p>I guess that’s why a deep pocketed Bob Pozen, albeit a former GOP guy, has been encouraged by hungry consultants to believe he can offer himself up as a Democratic candidate. (ala Paglialucca) …cha-ching!

    • Sure, the person who steps up better plan on dialing for lots of dollars, but MA is one of just a few Senate pickup opportunities for Dems, so I expect that the Dem candidate will get plenty of national dollars, plus third party activity, etc.

      • The only real pick-up chances for Senate Democrats are Massachusetts, and Nevada (the corrupt Ensign is vulnerable.  That’s it.  

        <

        p>Republicans meanwhile have a at least a 50/50 shot at picking off up six Democrat Senate seats (Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Virginia and West Virginia) AND also opportunities in agains five vulnerable Democratic incumbents in Washington, Pennsylvania Ohio, Missouri and Florida.

        <

        p>Democratic money will go towards defending those 11 seats but will also pour in to Massachusetts if Brown is seen as at all vulnerable come this time next year.  

        <

        p>Scary times with Republicans havign a real shot to take back the majority.

        • BARACK OBAMA

          <

          p>I tend to believe in coattails and give the President a shot at NM, VA, WA, PA, OH, MO, and FL.  Would-be GOP POTUS hopefuls seem to be hedging slightly about running because THEY think Obama will be tough to beat.  If he wins the states I mentioned the Dem Senate candidate has a very good chance as well.  I can’t think of an example of a year that a chamber of Congress flipped away from the party that successfully elected a President.

          • Sure, Presidential coattails help and Obama is well-positioned for re-election in 2012.  

            <

            p>BUT, in 2000, the GOP elected G.W. Bush in the same cycle that Democrats picked up 5 seats to flip the Senate to Democrat control.  

            <

            p>It is rare, yes, but does happen.  

            <

            p>Because Senate seats are on a six-year cycle, these seats are the same seats contested in 2000 (and in 2006, when the Democrats once again took back the Senate they lost in 2002).  This is an unusually volatile block of seats.  

      • That is exactly what all the Democratic intelligensia said when Coakley was out of money after the primary…”now the national honchos will kick in BIG time!”…problem: in spite of begging from primary day on for the DC bigs  (DNC, WH, DSCC) to pitch in a cash infusion, their pleas were answered with: “Get serious! She’s got no contest”, “She’s a shoe-in”, “She doesn’t need it!”…then after early January polls told another story, they began kicking in…too little, too late…( In the midst of an anti-beltway, anti-DC climate, what they offered were campaign event visits by the beltway poster crowd…so helpful)

        <

        p>Lesson: don’t count on national money pouring in to defeat Brown.

        • I don’t think anyone is assuming that the Democratic nominee is going to be a shoo-in.  So we shouldn’t have that particular problem to worry about this time around.

          • A lot of people think we can be resting on the President’s coattails, we needed candidates to be campaigning, raising money, and getting revved up yesterday. Polling shows he is still the most popular politician in the state. Is that a good thing considering how bad his record has been? No. But we have to be more realistic this time and recognize we are running against a very formidable opponent. It is time our corner presented someone formidable.  

            • …not to suggest we should rest on them, but to push back against the gloom-and-doom scenerio some people have for the fate of our Senate majority.  We do need a strong candidate, but I don’t want to usurp the convention and primary process by prematurely closing ranks around a presumptive nominee.  Right now the state party has to take the lead in knocking Senator Brown down a few pegs, which they may be doing.  I was at state party HQ last night and saw stacks of anti-Brown door hangers, for which I assume there is a plan to use.

      • There are 20 months between now and election day 2012.

        <

        p>Scott Brown has approx. $ 7 million on hand now.

        <

        p>To raise enough just to get what SB has in the bank right NOW, you would have to raise $350,000 per month for each of the 20 months…

        <

        p>Of course, you will have to raise alot more than that because SB, even after he pays for 100,000 copies of his own book from committee funds, will still rake in another $10 million with little effort.  For argument sake, let’s say SB raises a total of $17 million (what he already has plus 10 more)…an opponent to play even would have to raise $ 850,000 per month for each of the next 20 months to the 2012 election.

        <

        p>Reality is hard but it is a factor in this race…unless of course we are just looking for a sacrificial lamb.

        • I would just add that the money doean’t need to be equal. We have much more machinery.

          <

          p>By the way, I’d offer even money on the Globe endorsing Brown. Not against every Democrat, but against some, it wouldn’t surprise me at all.

          <

          p>

          • Money does not have to be equal at all (see 2010 CA governor and senate race).  Dem activists and unions (thanks again, Gov. Walker) are going to be a lot more fired up next year and willing to hit the streets, make calls, stand on corners, etc.  The MA tea partiers probably won’t be quite as jazzed, and the out-of-state tea party and Repub groups aren’t going to have just the MA race to focus on.  

            <

            p>We’re also going to see a lot of national spending on Obama’s reelection – possibly $1B nationally – and that will have some spillover benefiting the Dem candidate.

            <

            p>I do think that Dem candidates need to get moving soon and be strong fundraisers, but I don’t except anyone to catch Brown or really need to in order to beat Brown.  

            • Independent expenditures by Democratic-leaning groups brought that down to about 3.5:1.

              <

              p>If Brown’s spending $25 million and IEs kick in another $5m for him, any Dem who can spend $7-10 million should be ok. There’s a point where more money doesn’t make a big difference, and in a Senate race in MA I think it’s somewhere in that $7-10m range. At some point, no matter how many ads you buy, your name recognition isn’t going up, and voters who didn’t like you the first time still don’t like you.

    • Setti Warren or Kim Driscoll might. Bob Massie definitely will, if past performance is an indicator.

      <

      p>But Capuano raised about $2.8 million in three months last time, and Khazei $2.1 million. Less than Coakley raised in the same time period, but still decent money. Given a year, neither of them would have any problem raising $7 million. And right now they still have a year and 8 months.  

        • Then again I’m not running for Senate, so I don’t have to be able to. Most people can’t, which is why I’m skeptical the candidates who’ve never even raised a million dollars. But Capuano and Khazei clearly have the ability to raise serious money, so I am confident either of them could raise $7m in a year. I suspect Driscoll, Warren, and Massie could start today and still wouldn’t make it by Nov 2012.  

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