Without claim to prophetic insight, divination or any guidance beyond that which is provided to me by some slim knowledge of the actors involved, the stakes at play and the scope of the legal situation (and perhaps more than a little wishful thinking…) I offer the following prediction:
In June, the Supreme Court will reveal that they have decided, 6-3, in favor of the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act. Scalia, Thomas and Alito will dissent. Justice Scalia will pen the withering dissent that will give every tea-partier (even the women) a long weekends worth of acute priapism. The majority will be split with Chief Justice Roberts writing a mealy-mouthed opinion that attempts to shore up his political flank and hand-wave everything else. Justice Kennedy will write a strong concurring opinion that will contain the actual jurisprudence.
Two of the four cases heard last week hinged upon the constitutionality issue and so will go away. The fourth case, Medicare/Medicaid expansion, will be upheld 7-2.
A bonus prediction: In July, Justice Scalia will announce his retirement and openly challenge Obama to appoint a liberal in his place. Opportunities to give the world the middle finger are fast dwindling for Scalia and this might be his last chance to do so in the biggest possible manner. Obama appoints a moderate, Hillary Clinton. (OK, that last part is pure wishful thinking…)
In August all hell, politically speaking, breaks loose…
Discuss…
When you have a lifetime appointment, what does a reputation matter?
I predicted a 5-4 decisions against, and I’ll stand with it. Kennedy is an unprincipled reactionary (see Bush v Gore), whose clerks can better rationalize it than most others’. He knows who brought him to the dance.