Public Policy Polling is in town, too, so they may cancel out this news, but until their data is released later this week/weekend:
The survey of Bay State voters conducted Sept. 6-13 by the Western New England Polling Institute through a partnership with The Republican and MassLive.com, shows Warren leading over Brown, 50 to 44 percent, among likely voters.
Yes, the poll has a yawning data collection period, but the results should help push back some of the negativity that has hounded the campaign and actually follows on some level the trend of the Kimball Poll. Certainly, I can believe the data given Elizabeth’s convention performance and a jump in Democratic enthusiasm generically. The data collection period appears to be outside the shift in ads for the most part and certainly excludes the “Fighter” ad.
But you know what? If you’ve finished reading this and started doing a happy dance, you missed the point. If this data is good, then the only appropriate response for Warren supporters is to work twice as hard as before. More canvasses, more phone calls, more visibilities, more letters, more conversations with friends, family, neighbors. If this data is actually middling or bad then you would almost assuredly be doing the above (if you are really all in). Put another way, complacency is NEVER an option.
If this polling data matches the campaigns’ then it explains Brown’s moves a little. The almost patently false and dishonest abortion/woman ad is recognition he is still bleeding women support. We saw a similar blast of “women” ads around the time other data showed huge weakness for Brown among women. It also explains the use of the “misleading” attack ad on Warren’s attack ad. He needs to claim moral high ground somewhere, because voters may be taking in the reality of his record, which is remarkably similar to what Bill Clinton tore apart in Charlotte.
One more observation. Obviously, I’m jumping the gun a little and will remain guarded until PPP’s poll, but if that pollster’s data is close or matches WNEU/Masslive, one thing may be worth putting money on. The People Pledge may have an earlier expiration date than this election.
UPDATED: Warren up in another poll. Will update as quickly as possible, but is it time to guess is PPP’s poll may be shot that takes out the People’s Pledge?
Our poll will make three from different companies in the last week showing MA-Sen moving in Warren’s direction- pretty clear momentum
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) September 16, 2012