UPDATED: Per david’s suggestion, feel free to include your guess at the Electoral Votes total (EV)
UPDATED 2: 11/2 11pm – Per trickle up’s suggestion: a Deadline: MONDAY 11/5, 8pm (24 hours before polls close) for the prediction to be counted
Inspired by recently reading Nate Silver‘s new book “The Signal and the Noise“, I’d like to bring back an election predictions thread — in similar fashion to the one I did in 2010 for the primaries and the January 19th special election (formatting seems to be a bit wacky on posts from back then). The general takeaway from Silver’s book: to get better at predicting, make more public predictions and adjust them and your initial premises based on their success.
The basic idea with this post is that everyone who is interested will post their predictions below in the Comments on this thread for the final voting percentages in the MA senate race (and heck, lets try for the Obama/Romney too). I will then compile them, build an average, and then rank them based on their deviation from the final results (at BMG, users Argyle and JoeTS were the top last time, though RMG did a lot better). There’s no prize for the winner except massive massive respect.
Here’s the format, if you want to participate (and to get it started, here are my personal predictions):
Brown: 48
Warren: 52
Obama: 51 (302 EV) (P.S. National vote levels, not MA vote percentages)
Romney: 48 (236 EV)
Feel free to use decimal points if you want (i.e. 49.3)
I sincerely hope lots of people throw their hat in the predictions ring, and good luck!
—–
Last time I also took a shot at building a predictions model (Election Day post title: 53-44 Brown win? Prediction model, as originally designed, hopefully needs tweaking) to adjust the predictions for potential bias based on previous bluemass predictions biases, which was unfortunately pretty close to the final result. Not sure if I will be able to run the model again this time around, since i may have forgotten some of the math i used, but it may be interesting to see what it would predict this time.
I think it’s going to be a narrow < 1 pt victory for Scott Brown, and a more sizable victory for Obama (52-48).
Can I assume you would go with
Brown: 50.3
Warren: 49.6
Or is there another split you’d prefer? If no, that’s ok, but i can’t add it to the popular vote list without some hard numbers… I will add another section for people who came close in the margin between the two
I hope that voters, nationally and locally, will reject the lies and distortions of today’s GOP. I peg Massachusetts voters as more informed than the national average, and so I predict/hope for a larger spread in Brown/Warren than Obama/Romney.
Brown: 45
Warren: 55
Obama: 53
Romney: 47
Hopefully we’ll get the long overdue debate on climate issues
Warren 52.1 Brown 45.6
Obama 50.8 Romney 47.4
both in terms of what I’d like to see and what I expect to see.
I’ll go Warren 52.9, Brown 46.5 and Obama 51.1, Romney 47.0 (see what I did there?). Obama 303 EV. I’m going with him taking Kerry states plus (obviously at this point) NM, and also OH, IA, NV, CO, VA. Close losses in NC and FL.
Reason will prevail.
Gotta check the latest, you know.
So pick a deadline, it’s your show.
Deadline is 24 hours before polls close, so 8pm Monday night
I’ll update the main post as well.
Now get your asses out there!!!!!!
Obama 51% (300 EVs)
Romney 49% (238 EVs)
Warren 52%
Brown 48%
Not quite as optimistic as Bob, but positive just the same. ‘Nightmare’ theorists and pollsters may be scrambling to justify their existence come Wednesday, backhanded by comfortable margins. Those ignoring canvassers or identifying as ‘undecided’ all year will heed the call to send Mitt and the radicals packing – not just in MA either.
Obama 54%
Romney 46%
Warren 53%
Brown 47%
Right now, Nate Silver has 303.4 (EV) for Bronco and 234.6 (EV) for Former Governor Etch a Sketch.
So I will go:
305 EV for Bronco Bama
234 EV for Governor Etch a Sketch
As a percentage of the Popular Vote, I will go:
57% PV for Bronco Bama
43% PV for Governor Etch a Sketch
Within MA:
53% PV for Senator-Elect Warren
47% PV for the Liar-DoucheBag
only 538 EVs
sympathy supplemental EV from the Cayman Islands. Awarded to the candidate, whose fortune is at least in part placed in Cayman banks, most in need of cheering up.
Then it would be a much bigger bloodbath in the Electoral College. That said here is my shot at a prediction.
Obama: 50% (301 EV)
Romney: 48% (237 EV)
3rd Party: 2%
In the Commonwealth I’m thinking a 4pt win for Warren.
Warren: 52%
Brown: 48%
is that when everyone is betting on the favorite, then you bet on the long shot.
I am expecting even in the states where Former Governor Etch A Sketch wins, it will be smaller margins than expected.
if you are getting points from the neighborhood bookie.
Still, I am betting in the few states that Romney carries, it will be by less of a margin than predicting thus shifting the popular vote (National) to Obama.
Brown: 47.4
Warren: 52.5
Obama: 50.5 (288 EV)
Romney: 47.9 (250 EV)
Except for FL which Mitt will lose.
Obama:332
Romney:206
Warren:54
Brown:46
Tierney ekes out a win over Tisei because of Fishman.
Here’s how it’s going to break down:
Obama 376 EV, 65 mil votes, 56%
Romney 161 EV, 52 mil votes, 44%
out of a total about 107 mil votes cast
Warren 1.2 mil votes, 60%
Brown 800K votes, 40%
total 2 mil votes cast.
Dems keep the Senate and the House Republicans lose ground but don’t lose the House.
is the EV count.
… not ‘but’…
Really? Does that mean Mourdock loses too?
Mourdock beat Dick Lugar in Indiana: he’s the Tea Party Purist du Jour… but Dick Lugar is much more representative of Indiana as a whole. Thus the state gets even bluer. Donnelly, the Democrat in the Indiana Senate race is, last told, up by 11 points.
Awesome news, though. Last I saw it was a tight race. I’d still be shocked to see O take Indiana…then again, I’m surprised at how good Florida is looking for the president at present.
for Jill Stein?
Warren: 50.1
Brown: 49.9
Obama: 51 (303 EV)
Romney: 48 (235 EV)
tie breaker:
Tsongas 55
Golnik 45
Here’s Scott Brown’s problem. He needs to get about a half-million Obama voters to turn around and vote for him. It won’t happen.
Obama 63.6% Romney 35.8% Others 0.6% in Massachusetts
Warren 54.1% Brown 45.9%
Nationally, the tide has turned (literally) and Obama tops 50% of the popular vote:
Obama 51.1% Romney 48.4% Others 0.5%
Electoral college:
Ohio was a longshot but the Jeeps in China ploy backfires.
Hurricane Sandy is the wake-up call that keeps Florida blue – Romney wants to kill Big Bird AND FEMA?
Romney takes NC and IN out of the Obama 2008 totals, and the EV totals:
Obama 332, Romney 206.
Longshot win of the night: The GOP has kicked the stuffing out of Latinos once too often, and Obama squeaks out a win along with senate candidate Carmona.
Warren 51, Brown 49
Obama 49.8 (272), Romney 50 (266)
“If Romney had carried his home state, he would have won!”
Warren: 52.2%
Brown: 47.8%
Obama: 50.2% (294 EV)
Romney: 47.8% (244 EV)
In this case, Obama loses FL, NC, CO, IN, NE-2. I moved CO over as everyone else seem to have the 303 I really think.
Obama 52% (303 EV)
Mitt 48% (235 EV)
Warren 52%
Scooter 47%
Obama 51% (332 EV)
Romney 49%
The professor 51%
The former model 49%
Warren over Brown 52.3-47.7
Obama over Romney 290-248
Romney flips IN, NC, VA and FL
Obama over Romney 51.6-48.4 in the glorified national survey known as the popular vote
If Obama clinches things early, with wins in Va., Ohio, and even Fla., will it suppress Romney turnout in the Western states? If so there could be down-ballot gains for Democrats there.
Or will it be reported? Networks have so doggedly maintained the fiction of a tight race for past weeks–what’s a few more hours?
I think the pressure to make the call before the other networks do is intense enough that it will override the desire to keep things exciting. VA and FL’s polls close at 7; OH and NC close at 7:30. So we could know a lot about how the evening will go by 9 or so. This very entertaining interactive at the NYT website helps work out the possibilities.
Ready to ante up some BMG swag?
FL will be on twitter before the networks call it.
POTUS…………….51.8% 302 EV
His Expediency……46.9% 236 EV
(Other………………1.2% 000 EV)
Warren….53.1
Brown…..46.9
Nationally, Obama gets a small boost in the popular vote by winning key states early, suppressing red vote and creating a bandwagon effect in the western half of the country.
This is blunted by network coverage as a “horse race” and His Expediency’s petulant refusal to concede until well into the night.
Here in the cradle of liberty Warren’s ground operation delivers a modest premium over what the polls suggest.
the Herald-UMass Lowell poll showing Brown up a point? Didn’t they have an odd poll a few weeks ago?
Kudos to the person who predicted, after the Globe poll showed a tied race or small Brown lead, that the Herald wouldn’t be far behind.
Obama 281 EVs. Also wins popular, 49.x to 49.y
Obama: New Hampshire, Ohio, Nevada.
Romney: VA CO FL.
Popular: Obama wins 49 to 49.
2 Recounts. Lots of election lawyers on “standby” = recounts.
Brown 50.5% win. Mostly to have a chance to win this pool. “Faux rationale”: ticket-splitting by reluctant Obama voters.
Odds that Suffolk Polling does mea culpa if Obama is close in Virginia or FL after they declared it a slam dunk for Romney a month ago: slim.
to none, I should say.
Brown: 47.3
Warren: 52.7
Obama: 51.4 (296 EV)
Romney: 47.2 (242 EV)
Other: 1.4