I just did a final write-up with averages and an overview of the 16 independent Markey/Gomez polls:
http://massnumbers.blogspot.com/2013/06/a-comprehensive-pre-election-overview.html
The final normalized averages give Markey 56% to Gomez 44%. The amazing thing is the stability of the polling with only one poll differing by more than 3 points from the final average of the normalized polls:
Please share widely!
Markey’s got a ground game. Ground game, even if some vols flake out due to Markey’s polling advantage, pulls out voters. Gomez doesn’t have ground game, and may well lose some of his voters because they won’t bother voting given that Gomez is stuck in the mud.
I looked at a couple of the recent polls and found that Markey’s lead was about the same among people who are “very interested” in the race and have “followed it closely” and those who are “not interested at all” and have “not followed it.” In other words, no enthusiasm gap. A lot of Gomez support is pretty soft too. More than a quarter of his people said they might change their minds.
But you don’t play the score, you play the game.