(UPDATE: David Bernstein is reporting that yet another poll, by UMass Amherst, is about to come out. Markey leads 51-40 in that one, almost identical to the topline in the recent NEC poll. Gomez in the last 3 polls: 40, 39, 40. I see a pattern. Bernstein writes that 25% of 2010 Scott Brown voters report they’re not voting for Gomez; Markey leads 82-16 among respondents who did NOT vote in 2010 but are considered likely voters this time. We’ve gotta turn them out on June 25.)
As reported first by Politico, PPP has released their latest poll in our Senate race. Commissioned by the LCV, it shows Ed Markey leading Gabriel Gomez by 8 points, 47 to 39, with 14 percent undecided.
After a brief look at the crosstabs my initial reaction is that the partisan breakdown (41 Dem, 23 Repub, 36 unenrolled) suggests a Republican-friendly sample. Registered Dems outnumber registered Republicans by more than 3-to-1 in Massachusetts, but less than 2-to-1 in this sample. Gomez is taking 20 percent among Democrats in the survey, less than Scott Brown took but more than he’s been getting in other recent polls. Bad news for Gomez: the poll shows unenrolled voters splitting about evenly (41-40 Gomez with 19 percent undecided). Gomez needs to do a lot better among independents to win.
It also seems a little light on women (51-49 women). Women favor Markey by 16 points, 51-35, which is consistent with what we’ve been seeing in the other polling. The race is about even among men (43-42 Gomez with 14 percent undecided). Gomez is at a net unfavorable (39-40-21) thanks to women. 35 percent of female respondents view him favorably, a full 44 percent unfavorably even before last night’s debate performance. Men are the opposite: 43-35. Markey’s at 50-33-17 among women and 38-46-16 among men. Bad news for Gomez: more men disapprove of Markey than say they’ll vote for Gomez.
Interestingly, Markey is killing it among the young (up 46-23 with 31 percent undecided among respondents 18-29), but for the first time he’s also up among voters 65+, leading 50-41 with 9 percent undecided. Could be an aberration, could be that Gomez’s support for Chained CPI is not helping him.
The polls seem to be settling around a 10 point lead for Markey with between 8 and 15 percent of the electorate still undecided. The undecided pool seems to include a lot of Markey-friendly groups, in particular nonwhite voters (favoring Markey 54-19 with 26 percent undecided) and voters under 30 (favoring Markey 46-23 with 31 percent undecided). Let’s reach out to those voters and get Markey in by a wide margin.
“Voters trust Markey over Gomez on all issues polled.” Markey even tops Gomez 41-33 on national security.
“Only 75% of those who voted for Scott Brown in the 2010 special election plan to vote for Gomez.”
If these numbers hold and the Markey voters turn out, I don’t see how Gomez can win. Key of course is the conditionals: If these numbers hold and if the Markey voters turn out.
but the trends look good. In the three polls coming out this week, Markey’s at 52, 47, 51. Gomez is at 40, 39, 40. If you can’t get above 40, you can’t get above 50.
PPP, as I wrote, seemed to have a slightly GOP-heavy sample but Gomez still had negative favorables. He’s getting killed among women (average deficit 16 or 17 points) and breaking even among independents, whom Scott Brown carried 2-to-1.