Disclosure: I am with Senator Karen Spilka for Congress. For Results.
It looks like we might get it right again this time and send another woman to Congress. Karen Spilka and Katherine Clark are polling neck-and-neck in the CD (Congressional Diversion from the Boston Mayoral race) MA-05 race.
Polling by Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner, Research dated September 25, 2013 polled over 400 likely voters in the district. Here’s what they say:
With many undecided the researcher states that, “among 400 likely special Democratic
primary voters in Massachusetts’ 5th Congressional district shows a race in which Karen Spilka
and Katherine Clark have begun to create a little separation from the rest of the field. A full quarter of the electorate remains undecided, leaving the race wide open entering the final three weeks of the campaign.”
That’s what everyone was saying 48 hours ago about BoMayor primary but WE all knew it was Walsh and Connolly because eb3 told us it would be so.
I am not omniscient like eb3, but I think Spilka is going to pull the very pumped union soldiers out for a final push and make it the campaign season for unions to be the comeback kids.
These results look very similar to the earlier, internal poll from Spilka, except with one big difference.
That poll from ~July 29th showed Clark at 15%, Spilka at 14%, Koutoujian at 12%, Brownsberger at 11%, and Sciortino at 4%.
Sciortino is the only one to have gained any real traction from then until now according to the limited polling.
Another poll shows Sciortino getting 29% of support among people who have seen his now famous ad, and 5% of support among those who have not seen the ad. Unfortunately, the coverage does not show an overall state of the race or say how many people have seen the ad. The big bump in fundraising he got off the ad will allow him to put it up a lot over the next few weeks.
The favorables are surprisingly low for Sciortino. Koutoujian seems to have the “affable guy vote,” and Spilka v. Clark are well liked but (not surprisingly in misogynist MA politics) pull some unlikeability as well.
But his favorables are still great. I can’t imagine anyone not liking him!
Frankly, the whole crew seems very favorable, although I have serious problems with Brownsberger, both personally and for some of his positions, and Clark’s civil liberties positions have disqualified her for me.
Why is dislike for Clark and Spilka misogyny? I like both of them, but people who dislike probably aren’t misogynists.
How soon we forget the Elizabeth (Pocohontas), Hilary, Martha, Shannon bashing. Women in MA politics have additional barriers of hate and prejudice as well as plain old protection of the status-quo to contend with.
But Clark and Spilka are State Senators running for an open Congressional seat. That’s not enough of an apple cart to generate much resistance. Some, sure, but as a factor in a poll like this … low, I’d say.
In Spilka’s case, her casino support might hurt a little. In Clark’s I don’t know … but something.
KAREN SPILKA voted NO on the predatory slots/casino bill.
Katherine Clark voted YES for the predatory slots/casino bill.
Spilka – busted her hump to include protections for municipalities and impacts. Voted against the bill from the Econ. Development/Emerging Technologies committee that she chaired.
That one vote was the gutsiest MA legislative vote I can recall. To be the appointed chair, vet the bill and vote against it because it was insufficient takes incredible leadership and courage. And she has tremendous respect despite and/or because of it. Was promoted to Majority Whip and has continued to lead by being the first to call for the Tech Tax Repeal. And has the broadest union support in the race.
Clark – lock-step with leadership despite her district having heavy pockets of opposition and now under seize to protect themselves from impacts.
Low hanging fruit pickers aren’t likely to impact Washington DC gridlock.
I believe this is what I was thinking of — a worthy gesture, but I wanted more. I wanted outright opposition.
Unlike the Boston Mayor’s race, where Marty Walsh got the endorsement of the Boston Labor Council, no candidate in the 5th CD got the endorsement of the Massachusetts AFL-CIO.
(technical point here – municipal candidates’ endorsements are made by the geographic Labor Council and that endorsement brings coordinated resources. State and federal endorsements are made by the Massachusetts AFL-CIO, which did not endorse any candidate in the 5th CD. At least three candidates have union support in this race)
Which candidate would you say has the majority of support?
It’s clear that Senator Spilka has the majority of union endorsements. That does not however make her the union candidate nor indicate that a victory on October 15th is a win for Labor.
There is no coordinated Labor campaign within the race. No direct mail to AFL-CIO members, no Labor -to-Labor canvas operation.
Not a knock on the Senator in any way. Just a point that individual unions may take a bow if Senator Spilka wins but Labor overall isn’t taking a position in the primary.
I am curious about your union insight. Are you a professional union representative (any disclosure?) Or just a working guy like me who doesn’t have enough work and is hacking around here?
and have been for a very long time. And I’ve got 32 plus years of grassroots labor activity under my somewhat worn-out belt. And I have posted on many occasions about the positions my union takes and the endorsements we make. And I work for my union – and resent the implication that somehow I’m not a “working guy” if I am a union representative.
And damn right I know how the nuts-and-bolts of the Union Movement work. Been living and breathing it for my working life.
my comment it was not intended to offend. Just remarking on us both seeming to be from working roots. I read your posts and learn a lot and Kate has asked you for info., so there’s cred!
I was actually being a little self-effacing or trying to keep it lite. Hey
She has a lot of union support, but nothing even close to the intensity of the support for Walsh.
It may help a lot on the ground game, but it won’t be anything like Walsh’s ground game.
– No one is running away with the race yet
– Name recognition is still pretty low across the board
– TV ads haven’t really begun airing in earnest.
– “Likely voters” in this sort of race will be hard to predict in polling, which means…
– Voter ID efforts and ground game will be a large factor in victory.
I sincerely doubt the final numbers will resemble this poll. Some will do better, others worse, but this race will be determined in between now and election day.
I found Spilka very impressive at the recent Candidates’ Night in Lexington, along with Clark and Sciortino. Both Brownsberger and Koutoujian were short on substance and very long on generalizations and clichés. Neither one spoke about anything programmatic.
When asked why they would be the best candidate, Koutoujian, and to a slightly lesser extent Brownsberger, spoke mostly about constituant services on an individual level and seemed lacking in any view of the big picture. The ex-sheriff was big on gun control. Each of the other three spoke to specific issues, emphasizing what they had done on Beacon Hill that would carry over to Capitol Hill.
That’s like a Republican promising $1.50 gallon of gas.
Congress sets the rate of interest on student loans, but it doesn’t set the price of gas. So, there’s that.
I believe student loan rates are based off of that rate plus a small margin. Again, 0% is ridiculous. Government can influence the price of gas by opening drilling on the east coast and ANWR, expedite permitting, etc. Newt promised $2.50 gas prices when running last year.
I remember when I was in school, not only was the Fed Student loan rate 3% but it was 0% as long as you were a full time student and for 9 months after that…far better than what they offer now. So maybe she wants the 0% for while they are in school?
Except that we want to subsidize education and we do not want to subsidize fossil fuel consumption. Other than that, pretty much the same.
If moderator Jay Kaufman had asked the assembled candidates their views on Black Holes, Karen Spilka would have opened her remarks with a loud recitation of her ten year battle in the state legislature on behalf of poor & middle class families to outlaw Black Holes a fight she will take to the radical right wingers in congress if elected….
Bluster is an important characteristic for a rising congressperson, here at least Spilka dominates….
Elias N.
Jenny’s Law
Or maybe the Black Hole refers to her job creating, infrastructure work like repairing the National Power Grid which is a (if not THE) critical infrastructure, top national security and environmental issue. Pushing President Obama’s Executive Order to repair the grid does not sound Black Hole-ish now does it?
Wedding hawks, doves and those in between to get results is what she does.