The front pages of major media are reporting that Russia, V. Putin, has asked Assad to coalesce his Chemical Weapons and have them destroyed by UN oversight. Is this enough to cut off any strike? I would hope so. The move signals a positive face for Russia, taking responsibility to arrange a way out of a very dangerous situation. If Assad cooperates his actions would signal possible further more peaceful ways to bring the Civil War to an end. The scenario I favor is using the UN intervention to separate the sides and then pushing them to the negotiating table. There would probably not be a perfect Western style Democracy, but quite Franklin(y): A bad peace is better than a good war. If this works out a model of state behavior may evolve that will eventually settle the region. Until there is a serious no holds barred face to face back and forth with the only violence allowed is raising your voice we will move from crisis to crisis. If our President had a hand in making Russia come forth with this proposal, I am a proud American today.
among available bad options.
Syria looks like it going to get worse. Worse if we take military action, worse if we don’t.
This option would take care of the chemical weapons problem without the US being responsible for the difficulties which are inevitable in Syria’s future.
Hopefully it is a possibility and the unrealistic optimist can also hope that it can be a first step to opening negotiations.
In recent memory the West persuaded both the leaders of Iraq and Libya to divest themselves of weapons of mass destruction. They did so. We toppled their governments. Many thousands were maimed and killed. It can be argued that citizens of both countries are worse off now than under the old dictators.
Western military doctrine calls for rapid movement. The threat of poison gas slows the attacker.
Imagine being in a dark charcoal bag with heavy rubber gloves and boots. A hooded protective mask of black rubber encloses your face and head. No, no one’s yet figured out a safe way to exit bodily solids and fluids… Now, run around in 100 degree heat – there’s no air conditioning in your MOPP gear and sweat puddles under your chin. It slows you down. It denies the attacker mobility through targeted areas. Not what the West wants. The West wants to Blitzkrieg through enemy positions to quick victory. That’s why we want Syria to get rid of poison gasses. No one in power in Washington or Europe cares about the people of Syria. This is a tough, brutal world. Getting rid of Syria’s WMD only postpones the attack. We are a warrior nation catering to the desires of the death merchants and power hungry.
“I have a scheme for stopping war. It’s this — no nation is allowed to enter a war till they have paid for the last one.” –Will Rogers
Russia is an ally not an antagonist of Syria. The UN will be used to ensure the CW are destroyed. The next step would be peacekeeping with the UN assuring the proper parties negotiate and hammer out some acceptable solution. This trumps any punishing of Syrian leadership if life becomes more settled. At present 25% of the population in Syria is displaced. They should have some confidence they can return, relieving the accepting countries of an economic burden and allowing these people to return to more normal every day living. No option is clear as to outcome, but any that does not involve military action is preferable.
Scott Pelley interrupted the US Open to announce that the President was in contact with Russian diplomats to see if this was a credible plan. I am hoping it can be worked out and accepted. Bringing inspectors in and letting them do their job to destroy these weapons would do a lot to lower the tensions, and would be a vindication of diplomacy and international law as a viable solution over the ‘might makes right/shoot first ask questions later’ military first response we have been pursuing.
A) In Iraq the question hinged on the whether the divestment was both committed and complete so we really can’t say we ‘persuaded’. And, 2) Although ‘we’ helped, ‘we’ did not ‘topple’ the government in Libya.
I do not think that this can be argued. Nor do I think that the swirl of variables, including the ‘Arab Spring’ and the general anti-dictator movement (if not, alas, pro-democracy), should be discounted so handily in the mix of things that have improved or degraded life and/or quality thereof.
had a little gaffe by making a clearly unplanned statement that if Syria gave up all its chemical weapons, that could avoid an attack.
The administration tried to walk that back, but Russia quickly jumped on it, saying it was a good idea. At that point, the administration couldn’t really walk it back.
Given that the House isn’t likely to support military strikes, the White House probably sees this as a much more realistic option now. Furthermore, it’s in Russia’s interest to secure these weapons, too, since it would avoid an attack on a country key to Russia and would prevent rebels from getting their hands on any of these weapons (and plenty of those rebels wouldn’t mind shipping those weapons to places in Russia).
In Syria’s case, it makes sense for Assad for pretty obvious reasons: it’s better than military intervention that could quickly spiral into an attempt at regime change.
So, yes, I think there’s a lot of reason to believe that this is credible, even if it probably wasn’t what the President had on his mind 24-48 hours ago. It certainly solves a lot of problems for all the governments involved, which more or less forces it to be seriously considered.
I have been watching re-runs of West Wing, a series using consultations from both sides of the aisle. Nothing is unscripted in major policy like this. A plan had to be devised to give all parties some cache, including Syria. My vote is for some expert diplomacy and making war mongers look bad, wherever they exist. Can’t we have a proud moment as American citizens? If this works out with even greater progress, all stripes of political thinking should give the President and his counterpart in Russia their due. Time to accept a bad peace rather than a good war.
Beyond the killing and suffering that comes with any war, I can’t see a good outcome in Syria right now. Either Assad stays or he’s replaced by conservative Islamists, which is bad news for the people of Syria who aren’t conservative Islamists. There is no sufficiently strong moderate force ready to assume control of the country.
Assad runs a secular government with allowing both genders and religions to participate in the society. He invokes tribal warfare to squelch any opposition and this is what require fixing through any opportunity that allows parties to reasonably negotiate. The UN will be on the ground to inspect and if things go well, maybe peacekeeping will be next. Who knows? Egypt and Israel came to a peace agreement. There does not have to be a government takeover in Syria just a more tolerant basis and improvement in their economy. With nothing else on the horizon, my inclination is to grab any circumstance that chooses even a bad peace over a good war.
I agree with you on the course of action. Just saying the decision’s even easier when it’s not a “good war.” Our involvement, as publicly proposed by the administration, would amount to taking sides against Assad in the internal conflict. If that strengthens the hand of the opposition, I don’t see how how their ultimate victory would be good news.
and it seems more and more like the invasion may have been a bluff (and a very convincing one) on behalf of the administration to try to get Russia to take some action against Syria.
Clearly you haven’t been paying attention to Kerry’s years of public service ;P
There is such a thing as a gaffe and almost every politician has them, but while Kerry is skilled in many areas of politics, he is more prone to gaffes than most other politicians. I think that’s a pretty factual statement.
The fact that the administration tried to quickly walk this back, before Russia latched on, was a pretty open admission that it was a gaffe.
It doesn’t really matter in the end if a gaffe turns into something good. Lots of mistakes lead into positives. Let’s take advantage of this one.
…but Jon Stewart had a good bit last night comparing John Kerry to Mr. Magoo on this.