With apologies to Bernstein who did something like this in the prelim and will surely do it again for the general, it seems worthwhile to do our own BMG prediction game. Nothing but pride at stake. Cast your vote, and we’ll declare the guru of all gurus in Boston politics.
- Walsh vs. Connolly winner, with margin (%) of victory
- Total Boston turnout
- Order of finish for At-Large top 4
- Winner of the vaunted at-large #5 slot (who may end up in office before 2015)
- Winner of D2 District race: Suzanne Lee v. Bill Linehan, with margin of victory
- Winner of D5 Tim McCarthy v. Jean-Claude Sanon, with margin of victory
- Winner of D8 District race: Mike Nichols v. Josh Zakim, with margin of victory
- Results of East Boston Casino Vote
Extra credit if you can predict right here and now who the next President of the Boston City Council will be in January. Extra special bonus if you can predict who Michelle Wu votes for on the first ballot.
(Propose some good additions to the contest and I’ll add them. Excluded 6 through 8 at large city council because it is basically irrelevant, and I left off incumbent district challenges that seem far-fetched.)
Please share widely!
1. Walsh over Connolly, 53-47.
2. Total turnout 225,000
3. Pressley, Flaherty, Wu, Murphy
4. Kelly
5. Lee over Linehan, <0.5% margin – recount.
6. McCarthy over Sanon, 58-42
7. Zakim over Nichols, 62-38
8. Yes. 65-35
Bonus: LaMattina
Extra Special Bonus: LaMattina
I wasn’t first, it turns out. Good predictions
Though on second thought I think I significantly overshot on the turnout estimate! Turnout wasn’t even anywhere near that in 2010 with Governor Patrick on the ballot. Oh, well.
1. Walsh by 10. Connolly is a perennial underperformer on EDay.
2. 145,000. Bigger than the prelim, but nowhere close to where we could be.
3. Pressley, Flaherty, Wu, Murphy. Surprise with Wu moving up, but Murphy is losing people left and right.
4. Jack Kelly. Tough to beat out Jeff Ross, but a lot of progressive momentum behind Jack.
5. Lee by 1.5%. Overcomes her 97 vote loss of 2011.
6. McCarthy by 3%. Sanon is surging, but not enough.
7. Zakim by 25%. This could be a lot higher, but playing conservative here.
8. I have to say the casino loses. I honestly don’t know how the people of East Boston vote for a casino not knowing who’s running it.
EC: Predicting Matt O’Malley.
EC2: O’Malley. Wu is hard to guess. She might vote LaMattina, but in the end I think she sticks with a progressive coalition for O’Malley.
1) True or False: The BRA is dismantled within the first three years of the new Mayoralty?
2) Who is appointed head of the BRA sometime in the Spring of 2014?
3) Of the former Mayoral Candidates, who becomes a cabinet member and in what department (i.e. Felix Arroyo: Head of Neighborhood Services).
Sorry to be cynical, but the ability of the BRA to hand out favors on behalf of whoever is mayor is too useful. And it’s not as if there are mobs of citizens in the streets demanding that the BRA must die.
Not my wish, just my prediction.
1. Walsh, 52-48
2. 165,000
3. Pressly, Flaherty, Wu, Murphy (agreeing with everyone else)
4. Ross
5. Lee by 3%
6. McCarthy by 10%
7. Zakim by 30%
8. No, 55-45
EC: O’Malley
BEC: O’Malley
I like your prediction of Matt O’Malley as council president. I think we are tired of Murphy. And if I have any disagreement it might be that Murphy loses.
He can’t run again
1. Walsh wins by 9%
2. 145,000
3. Pressly, Wu, Flahety, Murphy
4. Jack Kelly
5. Linehan by less than 1%, recount
6. Sanon, by 1%
7. Zakim by 20%
8. Yes,by 15%
1. Walsh wins by 10%
2. 140,000
3. Flaherty, Pressly, Wu, Murphy
4. Jack Kelly
5. Linehan by less than 2%,
6. Sanon, by 3%
7. Zakim by 18%
8. Yes,by 12%
Pressley as prez. Deserved and perhaps payback to Sal for backing Connolly: just sayin’
Polls open in 23 hours. Anyone else in?