How can it be? It’s almost New Years Day and the sages have not yet posted their predictions for 2014. Perhaps it is because we have a prediction rate lower than Stephen Drew’s post-season batting average. Perhaps it is because the open constitutional offices make the necessary forecasts rather difficult.
In the immortal words of John Blutarsky: “Hey! What’s all this laying around stuff? Why are you all still laying around here for?” This BMG tradition is far from over. “Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! And it ain’t over now. ‘Cause when the goin’ gets tough, the tough get goin’! Who’s with me? Let’s go!”
Massachusetts:
- Juliette Kayyem achieves 15% at the state convention and qualifies for the ballot based on the calculation that two female candidates would make it easier for Steve Grossman to win the primary. In a remarkably low turnout, Martha Coakley wins the three-way primary with 45% of the vote.
- The charter school and privatization forces dump a ton of money in the treasurer’s race, but the benefactor of the bucks, Barry Finegold, places third in the primary.
- Last week, Michael Dukakis endorsed Mike Lake for Lieutenant Governor. Did anyone notice? The timing couldn’t have been worse, but it’s enough to build up enough momentum among progressives to win the primary.
- Warren Tolman reprises his 1998 “I’m a Tolman” song and wins the AG endorsement at the state convention.
- The plethora of contested ballots and traditional (archaic) methods of counting delegates results in a record-setting Democratic state convention that lasts beyond a June sunset.
- Karyn Polito, and tea party primary opponent Mark Fisher, spend the primary season in a medley of appeals to the conservative base. It sets a tone that damages Charlie Baker with moderate voters, and Scott Lively pulls enough social conservatives away to doom the GOP’s chance of winning statewide. Ed Markey features the rhetoric of Ted Cruz in his campaign, tops the ticket, and gets 150,000 more votes than Martha Coakley.
- Marty Walsh gets married in 2014.
- This will be the last year in a leadership role for Speaker Robert DeLeo and Senate President Therese Murray.
- Dismal performance by MA GOP leads to serious movement toward a “top two” primary system.
The other 49:
- Joseph G. Mills, Jr. wins re-election to the Rye (NH) Board of Selectmen, defeating Scott P. Brown by 48 votes.
- John Boehner becomes more assertive as House speaker, a move that fuels Tea Party primaries. Net result: not much change in the numbers, but the GOP legislators become even more strident.
- The Utah case finds its way to the U.S. Supreme Court, and the tightly written decision by U.S. District Judge Robert Shelby becomes the foundation for overturning state bans on same-sex marriage. Utah becomes a same sex marriage tourist destination.
- Secession bills emerge in two state legislatures.
- Duck Dynasty star Phil Robertson wins public office in Louisiana.
- Chris Christie starts to wilt under media scrutiny, who responds by limiting unscripted encounters with the media.
- GOP loses governor’s seats in FL, ME, MI, and PA.
World:
- There will be dramatic breakthroughs in relations with Iran and Cuba, and unrestricted U.S. tourism to Cuba will resume.
- There will be further instability in the political leadership of North Korea, reducing their ability to assert their presence on the world stage.
- Television coverage of the Sochi olympics is corporate bland, and the world gets a pleasant view of the venue.
- Kerry makes significant progress in Middle East peace talks. Efforts are downplayed by the media.
Sports & Entertainment:
- The Red Sox will make the playoffs but won’t win a second consecutive championship. The Yankees fail to make the playoffs for a second consecutive year. Cardinals win the World Series. Cubs have their first winning season under Theo’s leadership.
- Penguins-Blackhawks play for the cup, which goes to Pittsburgh. Portland continues their dream season and wins the NBA championship. Seahawks win a snowy New Jersey Super Bowl, and Denver is flat after its bye week and is eliminated from the playoffs after just one game.
- Lady Gaga tires of the act, and Stefani Joanne Angelina Germanotta fulfills her childhood dream by playing the lead role of a revival on Broadway.
- David Gregory dumped from Meet The Press.
Wild Guesses:
- Major earthquake rocks Missouri.
- NFL team announces move to Los Angeles.
- Amtrak plans major expansion of NY-Boston service.
- Litigation in Detroit bankruptcy results in shift of liability to state government.
- A cat will take up residence in the White House. GOP will respond with anti-feline rhetoric.
Please share widely!
It’s going to happen, and I will keep on predicting it until it becomes reality.
Local
Grossman wins the governor’s race. Baker fails to catch fire.
Kayyem drops before the convention, citing lagging fundraising. (Sorry, not rooting for this, just predicting.)
Michelle Wu advocates for a high-profile progressive issue, seeking forgiveness.
Tolman gets an opponent, possibly Mike Capuano or Gerry Leone.
Whats-his-name mounts a serious primary challenge to John Tierney.
International
Continued progress in Syria.
Some more openness from Russia.
Rising tension with China (Did anyone see how they blocked one of our ships with an aircraft carrier the other day?)
… but all of this masks the improving European economy.
US
Obama approval climbs steadily.
GOP keeps the House, and gains in the Senate but doesn’t take it.
Kirsten Gillibrand emerges as an alternative to Hillary, to the point where she has to announce a decision on 2016.
Christie battles a scandal, perhaps involving casino ties.
The bullet Sen. Menendez dodged last year comes back around to get him.
Cruz fades, slowly.
Sports
If Peyton Manning doesn’t win the upcoming Super Bowl with Denver, they win the next one.
Damn Yankees rise again. Yankees-Dodgers series 2014.
Entertainment
3D backlash begins. OK this is wishful thinking.
Assistant AG Maura Healey and State Rep. Hank Naughton. Capuano likes where he is and Leone probably would not have resigned as DA if he were interested in AG.
n/t
…will be shocked if he gets the AG nomination since it is his brother WARREN who is seeking it:) If you are seeking the Dem nomination for statewide office it can’t hurt to have your brother as president of the Mass AFL-CIO, however.
I corrected it in the main text.
I still love the video. Thanks for the correction.
The video is a classic!
n/t
GOVERNOR – Coakley and Grossman get the bulk of the delegates and either one could get the endorsement or nomination, but not necessarily both. Between Kayyem and Berwick at least one, possibly both and more likely Berwick, will get 15%, but neither will get the endorsement or nomination. Avellone most likely to be denied ballot access by convention.
LG – a fight between Kerrigan and Lake for endorsement and nomination and both highly likely to get 15% with room to spare. Edwards and Arena-DeRosa will have a tougher battle to get 15%.
SOC – Galvin unopposed for renomination and possibly for re-election, but will coast regardless.
AG – All three will get at least 15%, but Tolman most likely to get the endorsement and the nomination.
TRG – All three will get at least 15%, but the endorsement and nomination are open, though I give the edge to Finegold.
AUDITOR – Suzanne Bump is in the same situation as Galvin: no primary opposition and possibly little to no GOP opposition.
SENATOR – Unopposed for renomination, but may attract a little GOP opposition which I fully expect he will overcome.
Baker will give the Dem top ticket a run for their money, but I expect all other offices to remain easily Democratic.
Michael Sullivan runs against Markey. Dan Winslow isn’t in the picture anymore. Gomez is looking for new opportunities.
Why do charter school forces care about the treasurer’s race?
How do Karyn Polito and Mark Fisher appeal to the conservative base? Mark Fisher can explicitly state various stances on socially conservative issues whereas it doesn’t appear Polito can (because her positions have changed or never were socially conservative to begin with) or will be allowed to. I also get the feeling that the Gomez flap has emboldened the conservative base to be “against the establishment.” This helps Fisher but not enough that he makes it past the convention.
Scott Lively doesn’t make the ballot.
Yes, I can see Ed Markey and the rest of the Congressional dems using Cruz.
http://www.mediaite.com/online/watch-the-most-important-part-of-the-ted-cruz-quasi-filibuster/
Marty Walsh breaks up with his girlfriend.
Gomez doesn’t run for anything.
Why do charter school forces care about the treasurer’s race?
Barry Finegold has become the point person for the charter school lobby’s legislative agenda. He is their point person in the legislature. There’s got to be a quid for his quo, some sort of reward for his advocating the party line.
Scott Lively doesn’t make the ballot.
Scott Lively will have enough hard core social conservatives to get signatures, as well as enough money to generate funds for paid signature gatherers. He will want to punish pro-gay Republican Charlie Baker, as will his donors. He will be there.
How does Polito play?
I don’t know, but that is one of the reasons why she was brought in as the LG candidate.
Gomez?
Toast.
She is unable to raise money.
Isn’t that a big deal?
Consider how Martha dispatched Capuano et. al. in 2010, and how Katherine Clark dominated the MA-05 primary last year. Same game plan.
Here are the amounts raised by each candidate in the month of November:
Grossman: $127,000
Kayyem: $73,100
Berwick: $66,700
Coakley: $55,000
The amount of money that is raised is frequently used to measure the intensity of the support for a candidate.
Grossman has spent years funding Democrat candidates/causes…..so a lot of his fund raising is payback. A good portion of political campaign money is like casino money. It is not new wealth, it is recycled from one hand to the other. And, Grossman runs in the owning class club.
Kayyem’s energy is impressive – but I don’t see her having the gravitas, vision or skills to do the job. She might be suited for a Secretary EOPSS position perhaps.
Coakley is on the downside of her career trajectory even though she has measurably ramped up her headline grabbing in the past 90 days. She has the name and face recognition though….in a field that does not have a charismatic actor……that might be all it takes.
I don’t think you’re going to have to worry about Martha Coakley not being a serious contender. Deval’s people didn’t like that Steve Grossman wanted to have a mind of his own and not just toe the “Deval line” the last 2 years, so they’re all with Martha.
it would be an interesting story.
I was under the impression most of them had been replaced over the last 8 years.
And exactly who toes the Deval Line beyond his office?
not after she held him under a cloud for over a year, harrassed everyone he knew and in the end had to admit there was nothing there there….the fine he paid could have been levied by Campaign Finance a year earlier when HE asked OCPF to look into it. Central Mass will not be Coakley Country, that’s for sure.
Our nominee falls short by failing to address spending, taxation, and other basic issues head on.
Also:
Scott Brown does not run for anything.
Casino repeal is allowed by SJC but fails on election day.
Nationally, GOP retains House as Dems fail to contest every race.
Hillary is in, though formal announcement not till ’15.
or Brown might be back here (Ugh). From today’s Nashua Telegraph:
“Aside from the fact that Scott Brown is ill-equipped to represent the people of New Hampshire, I firmly believe that we already have the right person serving us in Washington.” (That would be Jeanne Shaheen.)
http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/opinion/commentary/1024961-474/turn-around-mr.-brown-and-go-back.html
Not thrilled about Governor Baker et cetera.
I’d be delighted were Senator Brown and the distinguished Mr. KrazyKhazie to revive their act.
Ed Markey, who just voted for the Budget bill, along with Elizabeth Warren, that cut Military COLAS to Military Retirees and our Wounded Warriors ‘who were retired from service due to their sever injuries, will be DEFEATED soundly. It will be pay back from our many Veterans here in the state to Ed Markey and the Democratic Party.
…PBA
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudobulbar_affect
And here I thought you meant the Philippines Basketball Association…
From last year:
I’ll give it another whirl.
Sports
Seahawks-Broncos with Seahawks winning.
Blazers-Heat with Blazers winning in 7 and becoming Americas team.
Bruins-Hawks rematch with Broons taking the cup in 6 and my fiancée not talking to me for a week.
Not sure for baseball, Dodgers and Mariners looking good though.
Marathon is well attended with no problems.
Tiger wins his last Master’s.
Politics
Turncoat Dems kill Iran agreement-more on that later.
Big upsets with independent Larry Pressler returning to Senate in SD, Grimes in KY, Nunn in GA and Landreiu in LA. Pryor done. WV flips too.
Gov-Walker re-elected, PA elects first woman Governor and Corbett defeated, Sauer beats Snyder handily in MI, Dan Rutherford beats Pat Quinn in IL, Walker re-elected in WI.
GOP loses some seats in House, IL-13 flips, Paul Ryan defeated but otherwise maintain majority and Boehner maintains speakership.
Locally:
Coakley, Lake, Tolmam, Finegold, Bump and Galvin win nomination.
Baker beats coakley by 4 points.
Casino deal repealed and gas tax increase defeated.
Shaheen handily defeats Brown by 8 points: Coakley and Brown have their careers die on same night.
Moulton v Tierney primary goes real negative damaging
Both considerably, Tisei beats Tierney in close rematch in the general.
Winslow upsets Galvin and is new SoC, Tolman, Bump and Finegold cruise to victory.
Kerry gets a significant signable agreement by end of the year between Abbas and Netenyahu.
Assad survives another year, cease fire breaking up country more and more likely. Kim Jong Un continues to purge pro-China elements in his politburo and starts seriously alienating the PRC. There will be a serious crisis with China that Obama will cooly resolve restoring his ratings.
Underreported policy story to watch:
Single payer in VT
Underrated politician to watch:
Brian Schweitzer
Going long on Winslow. I can’t see it, but power on.
…will again forget to verbally restrain himself, and that will again set off the GOP base on a “RINO!” tirade. The Dems will make popcorn and enjoy the side show.
Local..
Tierney beats back Moulton and Tisei (barely). He announces it will be his last term, Kim Driscoll starts to prepare for her eventual run at MA-06.
Kayyem wins a close one for the nomination.
Lake wins nomination.
Kayyem beats Baker by 1.
National..
Grimes falls short in KY.
Nunn wins in GA.
Dems hold senate.
GOP holds House.
Ginsburg retires from the supreme court.
Debated with her granddaughter at U Chicago, whom I still keep in touch with-‘gamgam’ ain’t going anywhere. She’s repeatedly said this on her Facebook and I trust her source 😉
Kayyem is a real wild card. The people that love are are really impressed but I’m still waiting to see more. Not sure if she gains traction, but I think her support is wider and her pockets are deeper than Berwick’s so she is more likely to make it.
I’m pretty underwhelmed by our choices for Treasurer-would be great if Wolf or Eldridge could give it a look.
Blue in Saugas-any hope Wong gets a challenger?
At least before 2016. Placing ego over the next few decades of the Court’s future is pretty lousy.
n/t
Two wrongs don’t make a right.
Anyway, Bush was in office and with O’Connor’s retirement Rehnquist’s side was looking at a long-term 5-4 majority. Rehnquist wasn’t diagnosed as really sick until a few days before the 2004 election. Had Bush lost there was nothing he could do at that point to get a successor confirmed before Kerry took office. And with Bush coming back the urgency wasn’t there. I imagine, had he lived beyond 2005, Rehnquist would have retired before Bush left office.
It is “wrong” that RBG stays on? She’s appointed for life, and she’s far from the first Justice to get sick.
It’s wrong. I think it’s long past time anyone can suggest the Supreme Court is not political.
If her replacement is appointed by a Republican (not to mention potential replacements for Kennedy or Scalia, who will be 80 in 2016, or Breyer, who’ll be 78), it’s game over at the Supreme Court for a long time. She has to know that. She’s had a front-row seat for what this Court has been doing. If she cares about the issues she fought for her whole career, the idea of three more decades of it should give her great concern.
Obama has three more years in office. Why should she step down?
(This puts aside, for the moment, that Justices are supposed to be impartial and “above politics.” That’s why they’re appointed for life.)
before 2016. Although, frankly, making the current Supreme Court a front-and-center issue IN 2016 wouldn’t bother me much.
I’ve also already said that the idea the Court is “above politics” is absurd and probably always has been. Marbury v. Madison, Dred Scott, Lochner, the Warren-era cases, and of course Bush v. Gore and Shelby County. All political. Appointed for life just makes the stakes higher on who appoints a judge and provides some insulation for unpopular decisions. It doesn’t change the fact that one’s view of the world (probably necessarily) affects one’s votes on the Court.
You’re not going to tell me that someone who’s been in a 5-4 minority in most major cases over 20 years, which came right after her “side” being on the wrong end of a 5-4 split for 20 years before that, is “impartial” about the composition of that Court.
PP: RBG should retire.
Me: Rehnquist didn’t retire.
You: Two wrongs don’t make a right.
Where exactly is the wrong? She’s appointed for life, and she’s entitled to serve for life if she wants.
the fact that under law she’s entitled to serve doesn’t mean it’s the “right” move.
fenway is suggesting that he would expect that a priority for HER would be that decisions LIKE HERS kept getting made.
if she does, then stepping down before 2016 makes sense, and is “right.”
That was exactly my point. From my (political) point of view and, I hope, from hers, the prospect of a Republican naming her successor sometime after the 2016 election would be awful. That being stipulated, I think staying on past the 2016 election and rolling the dice on a Dem winning, or being able to serve until the age of 88 or 92, is a bad idea. I should have used more precise language than “wrongs” and “right.”
I believe Rehnquist, a supremely political person, would have been very dismayed had John Kerry won and named his replacement at the Court. Just as Earl Warren was dismayed that his successor was named by Nixon.
Warren and Nixon never got along, going back to their days in the California GOP in the 40s. After RFK was killed and it seemed likely Nixon would win, Warren (then 77, 3 years younger than Ginsburg now) raced to retire. Johnson named his buddy Abe Fortas, whose elevation to the Court he’d engineered in 1965, for Chief Justice, and nominated another friend for Fortas’s seat. Fortas turned out to have ethics issues, and with Johnson a lame duck neither nomination got through.
To Warren’s bitter disappointment, it was instead Nixon who named Warren Burger — who’d made his name by railing against the Warren Court as a DC Circuit judge — as Chief Justice, the first of four nominees during his first term. Had Warren retired in 1967, when it looked like Johnson was going to be running for re-election, we likely could have been spared the “Burger Court.”
Tom has a great record of accomplishment as a State Representative and is extremely qualified to be Treasurer. When Deval first proposed casinos, Tom wrote a cost-benefit analysis that showed that their promises of revenue will not be fulfilled.
I fully expect Jamie Eldridge will endorse him – for years they have worked together to pass progressive legislation.
Namely: Obama approving KXL, further roughing up his already reeling legacy but dramatically improving his approval rating among oil-company billionaires.
I mean: If he was going to say no, wouldn’t he have done so already?
On RBG:
I wasn’t defending her per se, just stating that her granddaughter has been quite adamant in affirming her decision to stay put. Perhaps she is optimistic she will live past 2016 and have the first woman choose her replacement? She seems significantly sharper than Scalia or Breyer who are much younger, but I would agree better to do so before the midterms from a political standpoint. But at the end of the day even political creatures are human. She was also quite close to Sandra Day O’Connor who has lamented her retirement quite vocally.
On keystone:
Operating under the assumption he is a purely political creature, I don’t see what he stands to gain. It might boost the MT and LA Senate races, but it would actually hurt in WV and KY (coal country doesn’t want cheaper oil). And it would depress eco dollars, volunteers and votes that will be needed to win in 14′. So politically it seems like a wash. And aren’t second terms when the legacy issues come to bare?
Critique Clinton all you want, he nearly quadrupled the national monuments declared over his predecessor and he did it via the executive and in the last two years.
you were defending her. Just expressing my hope that a Democratic President names her successor. The simplest way for that to happen is for her to retire with Obama still in office, rather than risk it on the next election.
I hope she lives well past 2016 in the best of health, but there’s always the chance she won’t make it to 2021 (when she’d be 88) or 2025 (when she’d be 92) in sufficiently good health to serve.
Pablo put this together before I had the chance, but I wanted to highlight some high points from the 2013 set — and to be honest, they weren’t an impressive bunch (mine included):
jconway predicted a Latin American pope and Hugo Chavez’s death.
nomadlaw foresaw Menino not running for re-election.
Mike_cote called the reform of the filibuster.
All I got right was the continued reign of Angela Merkel as Emperatrice of Europe.
I threw a lot at the wall and saw a few that stuck. Benedict didn’t die but the Latin American Pope could still put contraception and celibacy on the table. I had the Sox sucking and Assad dying. Had Biden die in 2012…
I’m liking mine from this year-a little more restrained.
I’ll throw a few more wild cards out:
Schweitzer and O’Malley jump in after midterms and before Hillary.
Fidel dies. Betty abdicates.
First, please tell me that’s not how you refer to the Queen of the UK, etc. If you must use a nickname at least use Lilibet, but full name is preferable. Second, barring a major health downturn, which I don’t see either she’s going nowhere. Her mother lived to be 101 and I’d like to see her surpass Victoria’s regnal longevity record, which by my count means lasting through the fall of 2015. There has yet to be a completely voluntary abdication of the Crown and that trend is the standard which should continue.
He could’ve chosen his kingdom, but as one of his predecessors said “my kingdom for a horse”.
And yes that is how I refer to her, old habit I picked up from an Aussie family
friend. Who- unlike me- is still her subject:
I suppose you could say he “chose”, but what kind of choice is it when Parliament tells you you can have your crown or the woman you love, but not both? Plus there is the issue I’ve seen multiple times that the marriage was a convenient cover for parliament’s real concern – namely Edward’s alleged Nazi sympathies (which getting caught on camera shaking hands with Hitler later did little to dispel). After his abdication he was Royal Governor of the Bahamas for a brief time and he did get created Duke of Windsor, but his family by and large shunned him. If he had things entirely his way he would have remained King, though you will notice that I used the word “completely” above to modify “voluntary” – a very deliberate choice of words on my part.
of course Edward’s abdication was “completely voluntary.” I hardly think it’s necessary to explain the point further.
by the Grace of God, of Great Britain, Ireland and the British Dominions beyond the Seas Queen, Defender of the Faith, Duchess of Edinburgh, Countess of Merioneth, Baroness Greenwich, Duke of Lancaster, Lord of Mann, Duke of Normandy, Sovereign of the Most Honourable Order of the Garter, Sovereign of the Most Honourable Order of the Bath, Sovereign of the Most Ancient and Most Noble Order of the Thistle, Sovereign of the Most Illustrious Order of Saint Patrick, Sovereign of the Most Distinguished Order of Saint Michael and Saint George, Sovereign of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire, Sovereign of the Distinguished Service Order, Sovereign of the Imperial Service Order, Sovereign of the Most Exalted Order of the Star of India, Sovereign of the Most Eminent Order of the Indian Empire, Sovereign of the Order of British India, Sovereign of the Indian Order of Merit, Sovereign of the Order of Burma, Sovereign of the Royal Order of Victoria and Albert, Sovereign of the Royal Family Order of King Edward VII, Sovereign of the Order of Merit, Sovereign of the Order of the Companions of Honour, Sovereign of the Royal Victorian Order, Sovereign of the Most Venerable Order of the Hospital of St John of Jerusalem.
That ought to cover it
…It’s NORTHERN Ireland. The Republic has left the Commonwealth as well as the UK.
with plenty of relatives still in Ulster (one of the places encompassed in your “etc.,” I am torn between bemusement and horror at your reverence for the British crown.
Some of my ancestors fought a war here in Massachusetts to get rid of that bunch. The rest of them got here because a highlight of Victoria’s “regnal longevity” was doing virtually nothing to make sure they had sufficient food to survive in Ireland. Why you, as a “Democrat” and a “democrat,” care what tenure standard (or nickname) is applied to an outmoded figurehead in a bygone empire is beyond me.
There hadn’t been a “completely voluntary abdication” of the Papacy in a while either.
but rather part of the UK, and in my understanding are the counties which voted to remain when they had the chance while the others formed the Republic. As a Massachusetts Congregationalist my forbears fought this side of the Revolution too, but I have no emotional ties to something that happened 200+ years ago. Keep in mind though the King was a convenient scapegoat yet Parliament the real culprit, as it was in the matter of the treatment of the Irish during Victoria’s reign.
I have always had a great liking for the pageantry, the ancient traditions, and sacred aspects of monarchy. Much of what I study and read in my free time is on that topic and I have spent the last several years compiling European noble and royal genealogies now running 1200+ pages and 25,000+ names. I believe in a constitutional monarchy to be sure, but also feel the monarch plays a role befitting Britain’s history and traditions while modernizing as appropriate. Beyond that I’m not going to try to convince you as that’s not really the point.
First, as far as your interest in the royalty, you’re of course entitled to your interest. I was mostly just teasing you, though it’s true that you’re not going to convince me. I abhor all aristocracies and perhaps the British aristocracy most of all. But as someone at Buckingham Palace might say, if that’s your thing, have at it.
You’re right as concerns the term “United” Kingdom. The usual formulation is “Great Britain, etc.” and the north of Ireland would be the “etc.'”there.
As for the history, the entire concept of “Northern Ireland” is a fiction. The British parliament, in its 1920 Fourth Home Rule Bill, divided the nation that way. I used the term “Ulster,” but the six counties don’t correspond to the historic province of Ulster (which had 3 more counties), or to anything at all beyond being the areas with a majority Protestant population (or near to it) at the time of the bill. That situation was itself a product of taking Catholic land for a few centuries and offering it to Anglicans and Scottish Presbyterians.
Lloyd George & Co. insisted on this distinction in the 1921 Treaty. The English then spent a year or two laughing as the Irish killed each other because they couldn’t agree on whether to accept the condition. Ireland’s two major political parties are, to this day, distinguished not by real ideological differences but by which side they were on in the treaty war, much as the Civil War here determined the U.S. party system for decades.
The treaty, with the partition preserved, passed narrowly. Due to the demographics at the time, there wasn’t a chance in hell the rigged “Northern Ireland” would stay in the Republic. And let’s be clear: There was nothing like a county-by-county vote of the citizens, just a vote by the newly-formed Parliament of “Northern Ireland.”
About the American Revolution and the Great Hunger, your point is taken about Parliament, rather than the monarch, being the main problem. But I’m quite pleased Washington declined to import any of the royal trappings into this new nation.
She has a chance to break Victoria’s record.
I got Benedict leaving and getting replaced by a more liberal Latin American Pope right-just fudged the method (resignation rather than death). In my Fantasy Conclave (yes this is a thing) I even picked an Argentine-just the wrong one. My gut told me Bergoglio but my mind said he was too old and the other choice closer to the Italians (who can no longer elect one of their own but can play Popemaker).
But yeah, Fidel already abdicated so death is his only out and Betty is too healthy to die. Maybe she is finally ready to copy the Scandanavian and Lowlander and abdicate while she can still enjoy the freedom. Maybe I’ll throw in running away with Benedict for good measure 😉
sabutai – we need your wisdom in this thread. There’s so much good stuff out there to predict.
I get everything wrong anyway. It was two years ago I predicted that it would be increasingly obvious that the reigning power in North Korea would be KJU’s uncle…who he just had executed.
Nationally:
-No real change on the 2018 front. Dems come to rest at a 51-50 advantage in the senate thanks to Biden.
-In the House, Dems pick up about 8 seats.
-Martin O’Malley desperately tries to convince people he can offer the same type of campaign that Warren, Biden, and Clinton can. Nobody believes him.
-The XL Pipeline continues.
-A SCOTUS judge, likely Ginsburg, announces retirement.
Internationally:
-Assad is assassinated. Syria turns into a fight between Islamist radicals and blood-drenched secularists.
-Snowden arrives in Brazil for asylum.
-A Japanese soldier dies at the hand of a Chinese soldier, precipitating a very tense month in the South China Sea. Cooler heads eventually prevail.
-Turkey enters political crisis, and muddles through.
-A semi-coup results in a change in Ukrainian government.
-Sochi is such a PR disaster that the Olympics start to consider not rewarding tyrants with their pageants.
Other:
-Belgium wins the World Cup
-The Patriots acquire a name receiver.
-The Bruins fail in the first round of the playoffs.
-Bitcoins collapse as a system.
We always appreciate your predictions!
Don’t feel too bad about KJU, looks like he saw what you saw coming and got ahead of it.
I steered away from Assad predictions this year, I’ve been predicting his downfall for two years now, but when it does happen it’ll make Lebanon look like the Six Day War.
I think you are right on UKR, Turkey, the SCS crisis.
On Snowden I actually can envision him coming to the US and getting a deal, it looks like the courts are willing to hear the idea that he exposed an unconstitutional program and the NSA will want him to turn over the info he gave to the russkies and also how he got the leak in the first place.
Sochi will be a PR and a ratings disaster. It will serve NBC right.
Bruins beat Hawks in a rematch. Sox fail to make the playoffs (may my reverse jinxing continue!) and not sure which WR is in free agency, but it would be great if we could snag Tillman from the Bears on D.
O’Malley and Schweitzer announce after 14′ midterms-agree with you that O’Malley is a stuffed shirt with little appeal to the base. Biden announces he doesn’t run.
Even if the current regime cut a deal, there’s no likelihood the next regime would honor it. I wouldn’t trust the US government if I were him ever again.
I am trying to work out way to watch the Olympics on CBC…so much better than NBC.
As it is NBC Sports Network might as well stand for Nothing But Canadian Sports Network…
He will face charges to be sure, but he is neither military nor enemy combatant, so thus no court martial or indefinite detention. If he comes home he can avail himself of full rights of due process, counsel, etc. He might even get a sympathetic jury.
That’s just because Eric Holder and the President haven’t designated him as such.
…the ACLU and others will be all over this case. He is a citizen of the United States. Neither POTUS nor the AG have the slightest constitutional authority to deprive him of his 5th and 6th amendment rights.
And his son
Tell that to Chelsea
Anwar was declared enemy combatant for allegedly fighting us overseas. They were casualties of war. Chelsea Manning was a member of our armed forces. Snowden had a stateside civilian job. There is no reason for him not to be arrested and tried in the usual manner. I’m not going to relitigate the other cases though they certainly both have valid concerns to raise. I stand by the idea that the rights exist independent of the office holders and they should and I believe would be fought for.
All over the case! Lawyers! Hearings! Black robes! Paperwork!
Does that help the extrajudicial jailings in Guantanamo?
Jose Padilla?
Chelsea Manning?
Killing American civilians by drone on the word of someone signing the President’s name?
The security apparatus doesn’t care. They just don’t care. Russia has laws and lawyers, too. Ooooh…special. Doesn’t mean anything to people who jail and kill with impunity.
If I were Snowden, I would find a country big enough to withstand pressure from the US, and willing to do so. If you insist on human rights, you have a very short list, and Brazil’s among the best of the lot. If he moves, he can catch some of the World Cup.
With John Kerry’s active involvement, there will be a negotiated peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians.
There will also be a negotiated settlement with Iran.
The U.S. economy will improve and unemployment will dip below 6.5%
Obamacare will be successful.
Tom Conroy will be the state’s next treasurer.
Voter suppression will also be successful, particularly in North Carolina and Texas. Wendy David will lose, as will Kay Hagan. Alison Lundgren Grimes will beat Mitch McConnell in Kentucky, however.
The Mass GOP will again lose every statewide election and every Congressional election.
In NH, Jeanne Shaheen will be re-elected.
Not sure I’m as optimistic about The Corner Office or Obamacare, but if the Dems nominate a capable nominee and the enrollment figures continue to dominate the headlines rather than the bad website-we should be in good shape.
Predicts NEITHER Clinton Nor Biden Run
Significantly less bold once you see how flawed her reasoning is though…
With the Obamacare debacle in full swing, Shaheen will see poll numbers showing her 5 points behind Scott Brown. Citing reasons to spend more time with family, she will exit the race to let someone else be a sacrificial lamb to the Scott Brown juggernaut.
The President’s own numbers are up five points since ACA actually took effect and people are seeing the benefits. BTW, I’ve worked in NH politics and have long thought you don’t have a clue about that state.
It’s not like he has a use
About this one either….
Got the super bowl contenders right, though two first seeds isn’t really a difficult prediction to make