Predictions 2013

A superb diversion! - promoted by david

Busy times in the real world has hurt my output rate here, but I couldn’t let pass my annual predictions thread.  (See 2012 thread here).   Before moving on, some highlights from said thread:

I got Obama over Romney right, but expected closer, called a Dem. win by 54-46 in MA-Sen.  The rest of my predictions were crap.  As for yours…

Bluewatch calls the Red Sox suckitude and predicts sub-8% unemployment, jconway predicts Anderson Cooper coming out, Ryan predicts that Carl Crawford specifically will suck.

Here are my wrong predictions for 2013…please follow up with yours:

 

US:

Scott Brown loses Senate special to Capuano, becomes a gadfly on cable tv.

John Boehner loses his Speakership and resigns his seat.  Cries.

John Kerry becomes Secretary of State, has less access to White House than did Clinton.  US foreign policy hurt by the fact that Susan Rice is essentially running our foreign policy, but John Kerry sits behind the desk.

SCOTUS hands down a 5-4 decision that upholds marriage equality; one judge announces retirement.

A more punitive version of “right to work” is invented in the South, wherein unions have to pay for unemployment, or something like that.

 

World:

Angela Merkel rules Germany and the EU uninterrupted.

By the end of the year, it is difficult to distinguish President Morsi from President Mubarak.  With a wavering Saudi Arabia near the point of open intra-family fighting, Egypt moves into leadership of the Arab World.

Assad is assassinated.

Thein Sein is removed from power in Burma after threatening the generals’ economic interests.  This is done while Suu Kyi is out of the country, and she is not permitted re-entry into the country.

Tensions heat up on circumpolar rights due to unabated global climate change.   China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea are also subject to continued contest.

Business/Entertainment:

The NHL settles, and nobody notices.  The Bengals win the Super Bowl.

Two of the top 10 most subscribed newspapers in the country announce that they will cease publication.

Les Mis beats out Lincoln for best picture, but doesn’t win any other major Oscars.

SinoPec enters the American market.

Facebook stock plunges after forecasters say it will not break even or make profit using current model.

 

 

Wild Guesses:

A serious earthquake on the West Coast.  Sorry.

A landmark ruling undermines the way that the NCAA controls its “student-athletes”.

The Vatican and Beijing work out their differences due to shared interests.

Something similar to Stuxnet strikes either Israel or the US.

Nothing is done about America’s love affair with guns.

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Discuss

6 Comments . Leave a comment below.
  1. My wild guesses

    1) SCOTUS will agree with lower court that Prop-8 is unconstitutional and California will become the next state with Marriage Equality, followed by: New Jersey, Rhodes Island and Pennsylvania.

    2) C. Booker will defeat Christee (sp who cares) for governor of New Jersey, leading to NJ next (after California).

    3) North Carolina has a total freak out (see 1 above).

    4) Raj Koothrappali will come out of the closet and as a result, the Big Bang Theory will do more for open awareness than “Will and Grace”.

    5) As yet to be named anonymous Democrat will defeat the pathetic looser Scott Brown by around 10% of the vote statewide.

    6) The margin will be nearer 20% inside of Boston (see 5 above).

    7) The filibuster will be modified.

  2. Predictions

    1) Agreed as to unions. The South and Midwestern states will continue their assault on public sector unions, and continue to whittle away the successes organized labor has made over the last century.

    2) Boehner succeeds in gaining the consensus of his caucus and certain Democrats to avoid the Fiscal Cliff (or push it off another year). The nation then welcomes Speaker Ryan on January 3, 2013.

    3) The special Senate race includes Brown, Tisei, Capuano, Lynch, and a rich Pagliuca/Gabrieli-type who has never run for office before but thinks it’s theirs for the purchase.

    4) The Globe laments the lack of a Kennedy in the race until comes up with the creative solution to endorse the spirit of Ted Kennedy, Sr.

    5) Capuano wins the special Senate race, opening up his seat to a 10-way race including Mike Moran (weird how the district still includes Brighton), Linda Dorcena Forry, Sonia Chang Diaz, Mike Ross and Ayanna Pressley (who both have to give up their council seats to run in an odd-year election), Capuano’s wife or sons (who campaigned for Capuano in force last time), Steve Murphy (because he hasn’t run for Congress yet), the guy from Karmaloop (who runs on a platform of 4:00 am bars nationwide), and former Rep. Stat Smith (who runs from prison and still wins Everett), and Ray Flynn (it should have been his last time! DAMN!).

    6) Menino announces he does not run for re-election, opening the race up to Tito Jackson, Ayanna Pressley and Mike Ross (better shot to be Mayor than in Congress), Steve Murphy (he can run for everything! Always!), Aaron Michlewitz, and Suzanne Lee.

    7) Menino opens up the Tom Menino Center for Neighborhood Improvements; Dot Joyce is selected to head the center.

    8) Tim Murray and Steve Grossman are the first two declared candidates for governor in 2013. Joe Curtatone is next, followed by Charlie Baker. An out-of-the-woodwork candidate or two pop up in the North Shore or MetroWest.

    9) The Red Sox, despite picking up a new closer, don’t make the playoffs.

    • Predictions

      -Obama wimps out on Hagel and gets Flournoy, in spite f
      giving AIPAC everything it wants is still regularly attacked as “anti-Israel” and Mideast peace goes nowhere as Israel elects a more center right government, around Easter there is a longer multi week Gaza War that ends with an inconclusive cease fire-Abbas resigns in disgust and retires to Paris, no military strike on Iran though
      -We go over cliff, markets don’t react too badly, most Bush tax cuts reinstated and some Pentagon pet projects restored, Boeher loses speakership due to deal and we get a real crazy like Gohmert, Chafetz, or Amash to desk with. Tim Scott knifes McConnell who loses over fiscal cliff and fiibustrt deals
      -Reid and McConnell agree to watered down deal, McConnell loses
      Job
      -Pelosi re-elected to Minority Leader and Dem Leadership is stable
      -Markey sails to nomination against minor primary candidates, narrowly loses to Brown who runs a much more centrist oriented campaign, gets seat back but loses any hope for national aspirations
      -McAullife in VA, Christie over a minor Dem in NJ, Booker loses to Lautenberg in divisive primary ending political career
      -Ballmer out and Cook defects to Microsoft leading to
      Big shakeup
      -Quinn First gay mayor of NYC elected via Bloomberg machine
      -Bloomberg joins Clinton Foundation and sets up big PAC
      -SCOTUS Roberts surprises again by getting
      Big majority to kill DOMA, upholds minor court decision in CA but gets consensus that court will leave gay marriage to states and keep Feds out of
      It, creates federal civil unions to uphold equal protection
      -moderate gun control passed-clip limit ad assault
      Rifle ban, another mass shooting still happens, killer is Arab and has cursory ties to Islamisy websites prompting big bipartisan gun laws while leading to
      More Internet censorship
      -Assad killed as Damascus falls, rebel armies turn on one
      Another in awful ethnic cleansing attack, turkey deals off border and shoots on site at anyone trying to cross it, Jordon overrun
      By refugees and King has to crackdown wrecking his Western image and support but keeping his regime intact
      -a bigger green revolution is brutally crushed in Iran
      -China sees Internet led flash mobs that start apolitical but turn political until they are crushed while west ignores
      -Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro die
      -Pope Benedict dies, Latin American pope succeeds him, maintains ban on women priests but entertains discussion on celibacy and contraception
      Early 2014
      -Baker runs for Governor unopposed after brief Weld and Malone flirtation, taps Hedlund as LG
      -Grossman, Capuano and Murray have an ugly primary, Grossman taps Kim Driscoll as LG who runs unopposed, Grossman wins war of attrition
      -Seti Warren and Mihos duke it out for Treasurer and Mihos wins
      -Coakley still AG, Bump loses in rematch for Auditor as Baker helps left some statewide candidates including Tisei over Tierney in bloody rematch
      -Curtatone takes Capuanos seat over token opposition

      Sports
      -pats go to AFC lose to Broncos (damn you Peyton!) who lose to Niners who replace Pats as most disliked team in football
      -celtics beat heat in East finals, lose to OKC
      -NHL doesn’t happen no one cares
      -Notre Dame wins BCS, goes to final four
      -Sox suck another year

  3. Been there, done that

    For some reason last year I made my predictions for 2013, not 2012.

    Some of those are now quite robust, though the slots barn at Foxborough is looking a little problematic.

    Other things I predicted my not ripen until 2014. Keep an eye on Denmark.

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