Blue Mass Group

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Comment of the day: what’s happened to the Mass. GOP?

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In a generally very worthwhile thread regarding the dynamics of the upcoming race for Governor, the always astute centralmassdad poses an interesting theory.

A single foolish incident in autumn swings these elections often. Silber snarling at Natalie Jacobsen. O’Brien’s tattoo.

What is notable is that you list lackluster Democratic nominees for 4/6 of the last elections. That is a poor record indeed. I see nothing so far to convince me that this year is not a return to that well-established pattern, which favors a competent Republican campaign, if such a thing can exist in the real world.

What is different now, from those 4 elections is that I am not sure that there can be a competent Republican campaign in Massachusetts anymore. In my view, that is the Romney legacy– the death of the Massachusetts Republican party that loved Weld because he held the above-listed positions, AND because he spit in Jesse Helms’ eye at the same time. The local GOP lost that sensibility when they had to go national for Mitt in the primaries.

Senator Brown was their best hope to recapture that legacy, but the sensibility was lost, and it flopped. Can you imagine Weld or Paul Argeo’s campaign “tomahawk chopping”?

Baker is a candidate that would have CRUSHED Coakley pre-Romney. I don’t think he will be able to do that this year, even if he ekes out a win.
centralmassdad   @   Fri 22 Aug 2:23 PM

I agree with pretty much all of that.  On the same thread, I argued (as I’ve been arguing for years) that the 16-year Republican dominance of the corner office would never have happened but for a fluke, namely, John Silber somehow winning the Democratic nomination for Governor.  In the 1990 general election, huge swarms of Democrats, including (maybe even especially) far-left, progressive types, voted for Bill Weld simply because he was not John Silber.  I think that’s consistent with centralmassdad’s point.  In any event, these dynamics will become very important over the next several weeks.  What do you think?  Can Charlie Baker break out of the corner into which the Mass. GOP has painted itself?  If so, how will he do it – and which Democrat will make it most difficult for him?

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Comments

  1. What do people think Baker should be doing that he isn’t doing to break out of the corner the Mass GOP has painted itself in? What’s the corner? He definitely doesn’t appear to be courting the party’s right wing base.

    This has been a very noticeable thing.
    http://wgbhnews.org/post/progressives-once-marginal-are-now-mainstream

    In this year’s governor’s race, Republican candidate Charlie Baker is wearing his disinterest in the GOP’s right wing as a badge of honor.

    http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2014/07/23/charlie-baker-and-the-border/

    I think this is one of the most interesting things that has happened in the gubernatorial race so far, which tells you a lot about the race. It’s one thing for Baker to be kinder and gentler on gay rights (see: video with his brother), abortion (see: endorsement of buffer zone and Hobby Lobby fixes), and guns (see: support of new gun bill), because conservatives have never thought he was on their side on those issues.

  2. For one thing almost all of the cities are going D 80:20, and their turnout is much higher than 2006 (see Jan 2010 for what happens when urban turnout dips). It requires a different strategy for a Republican to even get close. You basically have to get 2/3 of the true swing vote just to get to 51%. So forget about the hard right (what are they in MA, 2%?). Who really cares that he has no new ideas? That’s a tiny bloc as well. This is just electoral reality in 2014.

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