Another way to understand why Hillary Clinton won last night in Iowa is to appreciate the operating dynamic of the Democratic nomination process. So consider the delegate math and you’ll see why the Clinton advantage is impossible to ignore.
Of the total 4,349 delegates (3,636 pledged and 713 super delegates) to the Democratic Convention to be held in Philadelphia July 25 -28 a majority of 2175 are needed to win the nomination. Clinton has already secured super delegates pledges of 344 as compared to 12 for Sanders. 354 remain unpledged and 3 were for O’Malley who has since dropped out.
The Iowa results ( 52 delegates) give Clinton 29 (including 7 supers) bringing her total to date 373. Sanders won 21 for a total to date of 33. Two Iowa delegates are still pending.
There are 33 delegates at stake in New Hampshire on February 9 where Bernie is the heavy favorite followed by the Nevada caucus on 2/20 and the South Carolina primary on 2/27 where Hillary is favored with her strong advantage among Latino and African-American voters.
There are 12 contests on March 1 Super Tuesday including Massachusetts (121 delegates). These will be followed by 12 more races starting with Ohio (121 delegates) on 3/15 and ending with New Jersey (126 delegates) on 6/7.
John Adams said : ” Facts are stubborn things.” In the final analysis, I believe the math favors Clinton but Bernie is not going to make it easy for her and it’s going to be a long, drawn-out brawl to the finish line. Fasten your seatbelts, friends. We’re all in for a long, bumpy ride.
And as a student of history I would just note that history was made last night in Iowa. Hillary Clinton was the first woman to win the Iowa Caucus.
Fred Rich LaRiccia